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xiayun
Extraordinary
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 3:41 pm
Posts: 25109
Location: San Mateo, CA
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Maverikk wrote: Going with your gut and getting it right while the consensus is way high or way low, seems like it would significantly improve your chances to be #1. Does that make too much sense or something? If the consensus is 22M and my gut tells me to predict 50M, I just have as good a chance as being No. 1 by predicting 35M than predicting 50M. The only difference is the winning margin. However, I'd have a much higher chance of placing lower with the 50M prediction than 35M. What if the gross came out to be 40M? Wouldn't I be kicking myself to be too bold and get myself the same score as predicting 30M? That's the idea. You don't go with the consensus, but you don't also need to be so far away from the consensus that you bring in unnecessary risk. _________________Recent watched movies: American Hustle - B+ Inside Llewyn Davis - B Before Midnight - A 12 Years a Slave - A- The Hunger Games: Catching Fire - A- My thoughts on box office
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| Thu May 19, 2005 3:52 pm |
 
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zingy
College Boy Z
Joined: Mon Oct 11, 2004 8:40 pm
Posts: 36662
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Mav and Michael, if you're saying to go with your gut and not the concenus, then next week, I'll predict $3 million for Madagascar and $90 million for The Longest Yard. That's what my gut is telling me. Who cares about common sense!
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| Thu May 19, 2005 4:21 pm |
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MikeQ.
The French Dutch Boy
Joined: Wed Oct 13, 2004 8:28 pm
Posts: 10266
Location: Mordor, Middle Earth
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Wow, why are people going so high on Kicking & Screaming? I tried many different increase/drop combinations, and I could never see Kicking and Screaming getting above $11 million, even with a generous multiplier. Meh. I'll either be the only one wrong or the only one right; hopefully the latter. 
Revenge of the Sith - $93.0 million 3-day / $135.5 million 4-day
Monster In Law - $13.4 million
Kicking and Screaming - $10.6 million
Crash - $5.2 million
Unleashed - $5.0 million
Kingdom of Heaven - $4.4 million
House of Wax - $3.2 million
The Interpreter - $2.7 million
The Hitchhiker's Guide - $2.6 million
Mindhunters - $0.8 million
PEACE, Mike
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| Thu May 19, 2005 4:34 pm |
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Samweis Gamdschie
Cream of the Crop
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 2:35 pm
Posts: 2077
Location: At the edge of reality
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 xiayun wrote: Michael wrote: The above is why i dont play the derby.
Why compromise? Whats the fun in that? It's not full compromise. There isn't much difference between a 148M and 158M prediction. I'm basically predicting the movie is going to be huge. I'm just guarding against a better range of over-prediction. Like for XXX2, I felt the movie is going to bomb, so I made sure I predict lower than pretty much what everybody else was predicting and then some. The average at the time was 27M, so I predicted 20M, and I didn't need to go so low that I risked being too low. If the average had been 22M, I'd have gone with 16M. It's a strategy, and that's a lot of fun. And it's not just going with consensus. I use my own judgement, and comparing it with the consensus and making sure I have a margin of error. Yep, thats the same strategy I always use - I'm not just predicting what my heart says, my prediction is a mixure of heart and brain (and thats why I made the same thing with XXX2 like you - I predicted lower than most others, but not too low) :wink:
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| Thu May 19, 2005 4:36 pm |
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MGKC
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Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 10:42 pm
Posts: 11808
Location: Kansas City, Kansas
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MikeQ. wrote: Wow, why are people going so high on Kicking & Screaming? I tried many different increase/drop combinations, and I could never see Kicking and Screaming getting above $11 million, even with a generous multiplier. Meh. I'll either be the only one wrong or the only one right; hopefully the latter. I agree with you. I can't see it getting over 11 million. Projecting a 9% decrease on Thursday (very likely), and giving it a 400% increase would put it at $11.5 million for the weekend. And that's the most extreme positive case possible.
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| Thu May 19, 2005 6:21 pm |
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STEVE ROGERS
The Greatest Avenger EVER
Joined: Fri Oct 29, 2004 4:02 am
Posts: 18501
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Short sweet and to the point: SITH will make 100 Million in 3 days over Memorial Day Weekend and everything else on the list heads straight to DVD..
_________________http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2dmXF3CE04A This kills TDKR At the box office next summer.. Get used to this
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| Thu May 19, 2005 9:08 pm |
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MGKC
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Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 10:42 pm
Posts: 11808
Location: Kansas City, Kansas
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BKB_The_Man wrote: Short sweet and to the point: SITH will make 100 Million in 3 days over Memorial Day Weekend and everything else on the list heads straight to DVD.. So it's going to have a weekend to weekend increase?
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| Thu May 19, 2005 10:01 pm |
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Rev
Romosexual!
Joined: Tue Oct 19, 2004 3:06 am
Posts: 32582
Location: the last free city
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BKB_The_Man wrote: Short sweet and to the point: SITH will make 100 Million in 3 days over Memorial Day Weekend and everything else on the list heads straight to DVD.. 
_________________
Is it 2028 yet?
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| Thu May 19, 2005 10:19 pm |
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BJ
Killing With Kindness
Joined: Mon Oct 11, 2004 8:57 pm
Posts: 25035
Location: Anchorage,Alaska
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MG Casey wrote: BKB_The_Man wrote: Short sweet and to the point: SITH will make 100 Million in 3 days over Memorial Day Weekend and everything else on the list heads straight to DVD.. So it's going to have a weekend to weekend increase? No your just under predicting the opening wknd :razz: _________________The Force Awakens
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| Thu May 19, 2005 10:20 pm |
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MGKC
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Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 10:42 pm
Posts: 11808
Location: Kansas City, Kansas
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BJ wrote: MG Casey wrote: BKB_The_Man wrote: Short sweet and to the point: SITH will make 100 Million in 3 days over Memorial Day Weekend and everything else on the list heads straight to DVD.. So it's going to have a weekend to weekend increase? No your just under predicting the opening wknd :razz: Even then, a drop less than 15%? :wink: NOT LIKELY. DIE BKB AND YOUR STAR WARS PREDICTION!
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| Thu May 19, 2005 10:35 pm |
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Michael.
No Wire Tampons!
Joined: Sat Jan 08, 2005 12:27 am
Posts: 23283
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http://naturalflux7.com/forums/showthre ... ost&t=1719
is basically the rest of the weekend besides my already predicted sith thread.
_________________
I'm out.
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| Fri May 20, 2005 6:52 am |
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