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 Will ROTS break Shrek 2's second weekend record? 
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The Thirteenth Floor
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Post Will ROTS break Shrek 2's second weekend record?
Here it is: $72,170,363

I personally expect 99m for the 3 day opening weekend. If it has legs like TPM, it would easily set the second weekend record. That film did in fact set this record.

So, is there any hope? Can it demolish those other puny films that dare camp out in its second weekend? I mean, this is Star Wars! :wink:






On a more serious note, I think the frontloading trend might allow Shrek 2's record to stand for 5 years or more. I have trouble seeing another leggy flick opening with that much.


Mon May 16, 2005 9:10 pm
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Nope. I expect it to fall around 45% for the 3-day weekend, and only because it is Memorial Day weekend.


Mon May 16, 2005 9:12 pm
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It will fall behind Madagascar and Waterboy 2-You Can Do It next weekend. Probably around 42 million for the 3 day and 53 million including MMD weekend


Mon May 16, 2005 9:14 pm
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:shock: Please be joking. This has 0% chance. This movie is going to be a frontloaded beast with all those pre-sells.


Mon May 16, 2005 9:17 pm
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I actually think Episode III had a better chance of beating Shrek 2's opening weekend record than its second weekend.


Mon May 16, 2005 9:20 pm
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Star Trek XI

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Depends on what ROTS opens to.

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All time North American box office.

1. Titanic - $600.8m
2. Star Wars - $461.0m
3. Shrek 2 - $441.2m
4. E.T. the Extra Terrestrial - $435.1m
5. The Phantom Menace - $431.1m
6. Spider-Man - $403.7m
7. Revenge of the Sith - $380.3m
8. Return of the King - $377.0m
9. Spider-Man 2 - $373.6m
10. The Passion of the Christ - $370.8m


Mon May 16, 2005 9:20 pm
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Star Trek XI

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MG Casey wrote:
:shock: Please be joking. This has 0% chance. This movie is going to be a frontloaded beast with all those pre-sells.


Unless the fanboys love it and go for 2nd and 3rd helpings.

_________________
All time North American box office.

1. Titanic - $600.8m
2. Star Wars - $461.0m
3. Shrek 2 - $441.2m
4. E.T. the Extra Terrestrial - $435.1m
5. The Phantom Menace - $431.1m
6. Spider-Man - $403.7m
7. Revenge of the Sith - $380.3m
8. Return of the King - $377.0m
9. Spider-Man 2 - $373.6m
10. The Passion of the Christ - $370.8m


Mon May 16, 2005 9:21 pm
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The Thirteenth Floor
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My own predition for the second weekend is 41m. :wink:


Mon May 16, 2005 9:22 pm
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scottb wrote:
MG Casey wrote:
:shock: Please be joking. This has 0% chance. This movie is going to be a frontloaded beast with all those pre-sells.


Unless the fanboys love it and go for 2nd and 3rd helpings.


I think some fanboys will do the following:

Second helping: Thursday 5pm
Third helping: Thursday 9pm
Fourth helping: Friday 7pm
Fifth helping: Saturday 7pm
6th helping: Sunday etc.


Mon May 16, 2005 9:25 pm
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Post Re: Will ROTS break Shrek 2's second weekend record?
DP07 wrote:
Here it is: $72,170,363

I personally expect 99m for the 3 day opening weekend. If it has legs like TPM, it would easily set the second weekend record. That film did in fact set this record.

So, is there any hope? Can it demolish those other puny films that dare camp out in its second weekend? I mean, this is Star Wars! :wink:

On a more serious note, I think the frontloading trend might allow Shrek 2's record to stand for 5 years or more. I have trouble seeing another leggy flick opening with that much.


No it will not. It'll be lucky to top $60 mill. if that.

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Mon May 16, 2005 9:26 pm
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DP07 wrote:
scottb wrote:
MG Casey wrote:
:shock: Please be joking. This has 0% chance. This movie is going to be a frontloaded beast with all those pre-sells.


Unless the fanboys love it and go for 2nd and 3rd helpings.


I think some fanboys will do the following:

Second helping: Thursday 5pm
Third helping: Thursday 9pm
Fourth helping: Friday 7pm
Fifth helping: Saturday 7pm
6th helping: Sunday etc.


Yeah that will probably happen with a few die hard fans. I think ROTS will get more repeat viewings from the fanboys then AOTC did.

_________________
All time North American box office.

1. Titanic - $600.8m
2. Star Wars - $461.0m
3. Shrek 2 - $441.2m
4. E.T. the Extra Terrestrial - $435.1m
5. The Phantom Menace - $431.1m
6. Spider-Man - $403.7m
7. Revenge of the Sith - $380.3m
8. Return of the King - $377.0m
9. Spider-Man 2 - $373.6m
10. The Passion of the Christ - $370.8m


Mon May 16, 2005 9:28 pm
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Star Trek XI

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I think ROTS will get $55 to $60 million in its second weekend.

_________________
All time North American box office.

1. Titanic - $600.8m
2. Star Wars - $461.0m
3. Shrek 2 - $441.2m
4. E.T. the Extra Terrestrial - $435.1m
5. The Phantom Menace - $431.1m
6. Spider-Man - $403.7m
7. Revenge of the Sith - $380.3m
8. Return of the King - $377.0m
9. Spider-Man 2 - $373.6m
10. The Passion of the Christ - $370.8m


Mon May 16, 2005 9:30 pm
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College Boy Z

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Remember, people, StarWars (StarWarsEpisode7) said he's going 110 times.

110 x $8.00 = $880

Add that to your prediction...


Mon May 16, 2005 9:30 pm
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I'd say no usually, but its second weekend is Memorial Day after all isn't it? Still it would have to have a massive hold and I don't see that happening with all the advanced bookings. Shrek 2 practically rose in prominence in its second weekend (for some unknown reason). I think it will do 65 over the three day, and 80 over the four.


Mon May 16, 2005 9:35 pm
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Zingaling wrote:
Remember, people, StarWars (StarWarsEpisode7) said he's going 110 times.

110 x $8.00 = $880

Add that to your prediction...


He really said that? :lol:


Last edited by DP07 on Mon May 16, 2005 9:42 pm, edited 1 time in total.



Mon May 16, 2005 9:37 pm
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Well Shrek 2 only holds the record by about $860,000 over Spider-Man.

_________________
All time North American box office.

1. Titanic - $600.8m
2. Star Wars - $461.0m
3. Shrek 2 - $441.2m
4. E.T. the Extra Terrestrial - $435.1m
5. The Phantom Menace - $431.1m
6. Spider-Man - $403.7m
7. Revenge of the Sith - $380.3m
8. Return of the King - $377.0m
9. Spider-Man 2 - $373.6m
10. The Passion of the Christ - $370.8m


Mon May 16, 2005 9:37 pm
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scottb wrote:
MG Casey wrote:
:shock: Please be joking. This has 0% chance. This movie is going to be a frontloaded beast with all those pre-sells.


Unless the fanboys love it and go for 2nd and 3rd helpings.

Rentals for the Stormtrooper and Wookie outfits only last for so long on the second week


Mon May 16, 2005 9:42 pm
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Shrek built up a huge following on DVD (in addition to the massive success of the first film in theaters) and was familiar territory.

I think Madagascar will do extremely well, but people shouldn't make the assumption that Madagascar = Shrek 2.


Mon May 16, 2005 10:02 pm
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posting in this thread is a worthless waist of time :down:

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Mon May 16, 2005 10:05 pm
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BJ wrote:
posting in this thread is a worthless waist of time :down:


haha. :razz:


Mon May 16, 2005 10:08 pm
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Damn BJ, whatever happend to that happy go lucky dude I knew so well? WOKJ chewed him up and spit him back out. C'mon man, don't get too down because of the box office slump, nothing lasts forever, and this won't either.

Anyways, na, this has no chance whatsoever. Fans in general will see this multiple times opening weekend, not the hardcore ones. My friends have never laid eyes on a movie website, but they're all going to see Star Wars two, maybe three times this weekend, and next weekend will all see The Longest Yard opening night for sure. The competition will be BRUTAL, so right now I'm thinking that it'll have a better fall then Reloaded's 59.8%, but not much. That had Bruce Almighty opening with 68 million for the three day and 85 million for the four, which I expect Madagascar to duplicate. But then you have to add in The Longest Yard, which I'm thinking will open to the low to mid 40s million that every Adam Sandler movie does (despite much more marketing then most of his movies, this one does have a lot of competition which is the only reason I'm not going with 55 million like The Waterboy did adjusted for inflation, and that's not even taking into accoutn how much less frontloaded movies were in 1998). If it makes 43 million for the three day, that's 55 million for the four day with the 1.26 multiplier films traditionally have over then. Clearly, this is the type of opening that would crush almost any movie. But I'm being extremely optimistic and I'll predict Star Wars falls less then 60%, though it may very well be closer to 65%. If Episode III opens to 45 million Thursday and followed Episode II's course, that's give it 120 million three day and 165 million four day. However, it'll clearly be more frontloaded, so I'm thinking about 33.7 million Friday, 39.4 milion Saturday, and 27.1 million Sunday for just over 100 million three days. Now I'm going to go with a 55% decline to 45 million, but don't be surprised if it's much higher.


Mon May 16, 2005 10:23 pm
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MovieDude wrote:
Damn BJ, whatever happend to that happy go lucky dude I knew so well? WOKJ chewed him up and spit him back out. C'mon man, don't get too down because of the box office slump, nothing lasts forever, and this won't either.

Anyways, na, this has no chance whatsoever. Fans in general will see this multiple times opening weekend, not the hardcore ones. My friends have never laid eyes on a movie website, but they're all going to see Star Wars two, maybe three times this weekend, and next weekend will all see The Longest Yard opening night for sure. The competition will be BRUTAL, so right now I'm thinking that it'll have a better fall then Reloaded's 59.8%, but not much. That had Bruce Almighty opening with 68 million for the three day and 85 million for the four, which I expect Madagascar to duplicate. But then you have to add in The Longest Yard, which I'm thinking will open to the low to mid 40s million that every Adam Sandler movie does (despite much more marketing then most of his movies, this one does have a lot of competition which is the only reason I'm not going with 55 million like The Waterboy did adjusted for inflation, and that's not even taking into accoutn how much less frontloaded movies were in 1998). If it makes 43 million for the three day, that's 55 million for the four day with the 1.26 multiplier films traditionally have over then. Clearly, this is the type of opening that would crush almost any movie. But I'm being extremely optimistic and I'll predict Star Wars falls less then 60%, though it may very well be closer to 65%. If Episode III opens to 45 million Thursday and followed Episode II's course, that's give it 120 million three day and 165 million four day. However, it'll clearly be more frontloaded, so I'm thinking about 33.7 million Friday, 39.4 milion Saturday, and 27.1 million Sunday for just over 100 million three days. Now I'm going to go with a 55% decline to 45 million, but don't be surprised if it's much higher.


I feel that this thread was made to tease star wars and the people that wont it to do good inthe box office, therefore I do not care for this thread at all.

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Mon May 16, 2005 10:27 pm
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BJ wrote:
MovieDude wrote:
Damn BJ, whatever happend to that happy go lucky dude I knew so well? WOKJ chewed him up and spit him back out. C'mon man, don't get too down because of the box office slump, nothing lasts forever, and this won't either.

Anyways, na, this has no chance whatsoever. Fans in general will see this multiple times opening weekend, not the hardcore ones. My friends have never laid eyes on a movie website, but they're all going to see Star Wars two, maybe three times this weekend, and next weekend will all see The Longest Yard opening night for sure. The competition will be BRUTAL, so right now I'm thinking that it'll have a better fall then Reloaded's 59.8%, but not much. That had Bruce Almighty opening with 68 million for the three day and 85 million for the four, which I expect Madagascar to duplicate. But then you have to add in The Longest Yard, which I'm thinking will open to the low to mid 40s million that every Adam Sandler movie does (despite much more marketing then most of his movies, this one does have a lot of competition which is the only reason I'm not going with 55 million like The Waterboy did adjusted for inflation, and that's not even taking into accoutn how much less frontloaded movies were in 1998). If it makes 43 million for the three day, that's 55 million for the four day with the 1.26 multiplier films traditionally have over then. Clearly, this is the type of opening that would crush almost any movie. But I'm being extremely optimistic and I'll predict Star Wars falls less then 60%, though it may very well be closer to 65%. If Episode III opens to 45 million Thursday and followed Episode II's course, that's give it 120 million three day and 165 million four day. However, it'll clearly be more frontloaded, so I'm thinking about 33.7 million Friday, 39.4 milion Saturday, and 27.1 million Sunday for just over 100 million three days. Now I'm going to go with a 55% decline to 45 million, but don't be surprised if it's much higher.


I feel that this thread was made to tease star wars and the people that wont it to do good inthe box office, therefore I do not care for this thread at all.


Na man, I know DP07 personally man, he's chill, wouldn't do something like that, trust me man. There actually ARE some people that think it's possible, and I would probably be one of them if there weren't the two huge movies opening that are.


Mon May 16, 2005 10:53 pm
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MovieDude wrote:
BJ wrote:
MovieDude wrote:
Damn BJ, whatever happend to that happy go lucky dude I knew so well? WOKJ chewed him up and spit him back out. C'mon man, don't get too down because of the box office slump, nothing lasts forever, and this won't either.

Anyways, na, this has no chance whatsoever. Fans in general will see this multiple times opening weekend, not the hardcore ones. My friends have never laid eyes on a movie website, but they're all going to see Star Wars two, maybe three times this weekend, and next weekend will all see The Longest Yard opening night for sure. The competition will be BRUTAL, so right now I'm thinking that it'll have a better fall then Reloaded's 59.8%, but not much. That had Bruce Almighty opening with 68 million for the three day and 85 million for the four, which I expect Madagascar to duplicate. But then you have to add in The Longest Yard, which I'm thinking will open to the low to mid 40s million that every Adam Sandler movie does (despite much more marketing then most of his movies, this one does have a lot of competition which is the only reason I'm not going with 55 million like The Waterboy did adjusted for inflation, and that's not even taking into accoutn how much less frontloaded movies were in 1998). If it makes 43 million for the three day, that's 55 million for the four day with the 1.26 multiplier films traditionally have over then. Clearly, this is the type of opening that would crush almost any movie. But I'm being extremely optimistic and I'll predict Star Wars falls less then 60%, though it may very well be closer to 65%. If Episode III opens to 45 million Thursday and followed Episode II's course, that's give it 120 million three day and 165 million four day. However, it'll clearly be more frontloaded, so I'm thinking about 33.7 million Friday, 39.4 milion Saturday, and 27.1 million Sunday for just over 100 million three days. Now I'm going to go with a 55% decline to 45 million, but don't be surprised if it's much higher.


I feel that this thread was made to tease star wars and the people that wont it to do good inthe box office, therefore I do not care for this thread at all.


Na man, I know DP07 personally man, he's chill, wouldn't do something like that, trust me man. There actually ARE some people that think it's possible, and I would probably be one of them if there weren't the two huge movies opening that are.


ok, Im cool now, was just a bit steamed earlyer, sorry about that :oops: Its fine :cool: I wouldnt mind seeing a star wars film with the 2nd wknd record :smile:

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Mon May 16, 2005 11:19 pm
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