Online certainly.
Offline....not so much. Its fanbase basically posted rabidly online for ages then rushed out to see it and its run reflected that. I dont think it could have done much better than it did.

Fantastic Four, Madagascar, and Batman Begins...

The first weekend of summer is usualy given to new hyped films, almost never animated films, or films that would greatly benefit from the first week of Summer (and thus, the studio fights for it). The only movie mentioned above that might meet that criteria is Fantastic Four but the best one to open the summer would have been Sin City.

I think it would have defintely inched closer to $40 million.
It seems as though Spider-Man in 2002 and X2 in 2003 remain unmatched in Summer opening. I think because those 2 films became so successful, people have too much expectation for the first week of Summer. You can't expect any movie to open to $50m in the first week of summer. The movie itself has to be good. Spider-Man and X2 were awesome popcorn flicks and also above average in terms of quality for blockbusters.

Sin City would have made a very interesting weekend. I could defintely see at least $35 million and maybe even $40+ million.

I mean Van Helsing didn't look that good (as is evident with it's horrible multiplier) and that took in what $45m? I'm not quite sure on the exact number.
Sin City had the amazing style, more anticipation, and the critics backing it up. That alone would have equalized the playing field against the R rating.

Fantastic Four would definitely have been the best leadoff for the summer movie season, but they were so fixated around that July 4th schedule, that they didn't even consider it. All ages superhero films do very well as a fun way to start the summer. I'll never understand what studios were thinking by starting it off with 3 R rated films of marginal appeal to the mass audience.

I disagree. With the weekdays, I think it would be a horrible idea to open a family film in early May rather then late May. With this date I'm not certain Nemo would have reached 300m.

What should have started the summer blockbuster season - Kingdom of Heaven

But, no.

If I were to pick a film, it would have to have wide demographic appeal. Not Sin City or the Ring Two. Sin City did fine as good as could have been expected (and right with my predictions :razz:) but it doesn't appeal to many demos, so no way could it have been huge.

I'd go with Batman Begins.

Fantastic Four for sure, because of the fact it would be the first big superhero movie to open in awhile and it wouldnt have to compete with the success of Batman Begins, the fact its opening a few weeks after a much higher profile superhero movie and the second week of WOTW isnt doing it any favor.

Van Helsing opened with $52 mil which some "experts" described as "disappointing".

Monster-in-Law. It can then take advantage of Mother's Day, which would help it to #1 ahead of Kingdom of Heaven. Bad strategy on New Line Cinema's part to open the movie next week.

FF would have been slightly less of a bomb on May 6th than July 4th. But we would still be talking about how it underperformed. So just switch out KoH for FF and call it a day.

A Good way to sell FF is by having the subtitles like "From the director of Taxi and the writer of XXX2 and Elektra. Based on the 10th best selling comicbook of all time *scratch that* 12th best comic book *scratch that* aww heck from a very popular comic book. Starring the guy who played King Arthur's second in command bitch, also starring the old short guy from Commish and the Shield<uses old clip from the movie Hellboy to look like the Thing because the FX department is so lazy that they wont be complete with the full FX till July>, and presenting that hot actress from Honey. And the guy on Nip Tuck as Dr Doom<wearing Dr Doom halloween mask> <Human Torch running around prancing and yelling "Flame On"" That would of been a good trailer

Why don't you just use the ignore feature?

In my opinion, we needed a big comedy to open up the summer to change how things usually go. The Longest Yard or Bewitched could have been in that spot.

Thread has been split.

Annnyways, I'd have gone with Fantastic Four. I bet Fox might have too if they weren't competing with the Fourth of July release for so long to the point that Kingdom of Heaven and Fantastic Four were rather locked into place and Four's effects couldn't have been finished in time. Otherwise, I think it could've opened to 60+ million. Hmm, looking at Fox's other movies, Mr. and Mrs. Smith was actually completed April 28th, so it might have been a better choice to switch those two around, though I'm still not sure Smith wouldn't have fared any better. Hmm, well here's a list of the possibilities that would have or wouldn't have been finished in time.

Completed:
Batman Begins (As of March 24th!)
Star Wars: Episode III
Madagascar
The Longest Yard
Mr. and Mrs. Smith
Rebound
Bewitched
Valiant
Deuce Bigalo: European Gigilo


Incomplete:
Fantastic Four
War of the Worlds
Charlie and the Chocolate Factory
Stealth
The Dukes of Hazzard

Hmm, well Madagascar would be a bad idea in my opinion, totally kill the weekday legs. Batman and Star Wars are both opening on there traditional weekend, so it might have felt somewhat out of place. A comedy could really work well, but I think Bewitched is a bit low profile. The Longest Yard might have worked, though Adam Sandler movies can have great legs with summer weekdays, and this one has been getting terrific WOM from general audiences at the advance screenings (much like Sahara). Valiant is the only other possibility I could think of as it's a CGI kids movie and right now is opening in late August, but that wouldn't have done great either. So if they could've, I'd go with Fantastic Four, but otherwise, I think Mr. and Mrs. Smith could have done 40 million instead of 20 were the stars aligned.

Off the top of my head - here are the summer openers from the last 10 years (ive based it on the film in early May epected to launch the summer):

1995 - Crimson Tide ($19m/91m)
1996 - Twister ($40m/242m)
1997 - The Fifth Element ($17m/$63m)
1998 - Deep Impact ($41m/$140m)
1999 - The Mummy ($43m/$156m)
2000 - Gladiator ($34m/$184m)
2001 - The Mummy Returns ($68m/$202m)
2002 - Spiderman ($114m/$405m)
2003 - X2 ($85m/$213m)
2004 - Van Helsing ($51m/$120m)
2005 - Kingdom of Heaven ($21m/$65m??)

That will make 2005 like 1997 the only summer opener to not see $100m (if we disregard 95 as the pre modern blockbuster era). And like 97 - looks like people are saving there $$ for the big film of the month - ROTS/Lost World.

It may be, but what about the overall gross? There's no comparison between these movies since Lost World looked awfully boring to me. That's what the audiences expected for the sequel of Jurrasic Park, but quite frontloaded itself nonetheless too as much as any recent films lately.

Definatley! It was extremely frontloaded for its time. Its basically the anti-Titanic of 97. I didnt like it at all, though I loved Jurassic Park. Still adjusted - i think its close to $300m in todays $$. Id expect ROTS to perform much better in terms of final gross.

What the above list does show is that the most successful films to open the summer are effects driven vehicles that have broad appeal. Funnily comedy hasnt been used all that much apart from "Fathers Day" in 97 which tanked despite the presence of Crystal and Robbins. I think Monster in Law or The Longest Yard would have worked this weekend.

Kids films would be wasted in this date as the weekdays would be rather weak. Memorial Day is a good call.

Definatley! It was extremely frontloaded for its time. Its basically the anti-Titanic of 97. I didnt like it at all, though I loved Jurassic Park. Still adjusted - i think its close to $300m in todays $$. Id expect ROTS to perform much better in terms of final gross.

What the above list does show is that the most successful films to open the summer are effects driven vehicles that have broad appeal. Funnily comedy hasnt been used all that much apart from "Fathers Day" in 97 which tanked despite the presence of Crystal and Robbins. I think Monster in Law or The Longest Yard would have worked this weekend.

Kids films would be wasted in this date as the weekdays would be rather weak. Memorial Day is a good call.

On that Van Helsing "dissapointing" line ; why did people call "Daredevil" a bomb? It made over $100m in the US alone im sure, made a shitload offshores then sold a tonne on dvd. Enough so to merit a spinoff.
Sure it was a horrible movie, but it wasn't a bomb.

Lost World was amazing imho, i loved that movie, perhaps even more than the original. Jurassic Park III was not so great though, even with the amazing Tea Leoni.

I believe at one point there was a plan to release Mission Impossible III this weekend. I guess that movie never materialized, but something like that might have worked a lot better.

I think in the future they should stick with PG-13 or under franchise films such as MI or X-Men. Fantastic Four isn't proven yet, so I would hold off on that. Batman might have been the best bet.

I think Sin City made every penny it was going to make whether it was released now or in April. Sin City was never going to be a four quadrant film as it's style, language and violence keep kids out, some women, and most older people. I think people are looking for a lighter "fun" movie to open the summer, which is why stuff like Twister and The Mummy did so well.

Valiant could be a good idea, but they would really desperately need a big marketing campaign, because otherwise no one really knows about the film.

Well, i know Valiant didnt blow any records away here in the UK where it was made and its set.

It had a weak first weekend but rode on exceptional legs [inspite of iffy reviews] to $14.2m and counting here. Robots has made $22.2m here.

Shrek 2 made tonnes more than that. Infact i think thats the lowest grossing CGI movie ever here aside from Final Fantasy.

Batman Begins should have opened the summer season with the first week of May slot. It would face zero competion and would not be in the middle of summer blockbuster season. Next year we won't have this problem when MI:3 opens up the summer with a bang.

I thought that The Posieden Adventure remake was kicking off summer 2006...can someone clear this up?