Red One 28m

Yes, $34m

I initially thought it would open in the high teens, given how painfully unfunny it looks. After seeing the tracking numbers, I raised my prediction to 24 Million. Now, considering the terrible reviews, I believe my initial forecast might be more accurate.

But people love paying to see crap. The Fast series has used that for ten movies.

People have become more discerning about what they spend money on to see in a theater, and they place greater emphasis on reviews than they used to. The combination of looking like crap and bad reviews should hurt it.

Maybe that will be counteracted by it being the first mainstream, accessible Christmas movie of the season?

+ the Rock

That’s possible, or they could just wait for the movies they really want to see to come out in the next couple of weeks. Sure, those aren’t Christmas movies, but if the only option is a bad Christmas movie, people might pass.

Regardless, I do think there will be some people seeing it. It has the advantage of an open marketplace for a week. However, I don't think it's going to reach the tracking numbers. I wouldn't be surprised if it falls way below expectations. Mind you, I'm not rooting for it to fail, and I hope it does well. Any movie doing well is good for theaters.

A $50-60m total for Red One would be OK. It may get a small uptick around Christmas as well.

Five films will dominate the next two months and will suck the oxygen out of the box office for smaller pics.

I'm going to say sub 20 as well, they forgot how to make Christmas movies with old school heart/sentimentality, this seems constructed in lab as a ploy to get a multiple film franchise.

Agree - it's loud and obnoxious and very Netflixy.

Red One - 26m

Red One apparently has a budget of $250M?!!! $50M overbudget according to rumors of The Rock showing up late according to the Wiki page.

The director of the two Jumanji movies with The Rock so guess they assumed this would be massive with them reuniting and an Avenger?

Definitely.

Any word on how presales for this finished?

3.7 mil Thursday for Red One seems pretty good.

A $30M+ start for a Christmas themed movie with Thanksgiving weekend in weekend 2 (even with the competition) likely gives The Rock another $100M+ movie here. People in the mood for holiday movies are more tolerable toward films.

I would think it could make it to 100 Million. It depends on how much the incoming juggernauts affect it. It will probably hold pretty well over Thanksgiving.