50-99

2023 (17): A Man Called Otto, M3gan, Cocaine Bear, Jesus Revolution, Shazam 2, Dungeons and Dragons, Air, Evil Dead Rise, No Hard Feelings, Insidious: The Red Door, Haunted Mansion, Meg 2: The Trench, Blue Beetle, The Equalizer 3, The Nun II, Saw X, Paw Patrol: The Mighty Movie
2024 (10): Mean Girls, The Beekeeper, Bob Marley, Civil War, Challengers, The Fall Guy, Furiosa, Garfield, Longlegs, Transformers One

100-149

2023 (4): Scream IV, Fast X, The Flash, Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem
2024 (5 - projected): Ghostbusters Afterlife, IF, It Ends With Us, Alien: Romulus, The Wild Robot

150-199:

2023 (7): Creed III, John Wick: Chapter IV, Transformers: Rise of the Beasts, Elemental, Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny, The Sound of Freedom, Mission Impossible: Dead Reckoning
2024 (4): Kung Fu Panda 4, Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes, A Quiet Place: Day One, Bad Boys: Ride or Die

August and September was successful for 100-150 movies with It Ends With Us (looks like it'll just miss 150), Romulus and The Wild Robot if it finishes in that range. However it did very little in 50-99 category for this prime time of year, with only Transformers hitting while 2023 had Meg 2, Blue Beetle, Equalizer 3, The Nun II, Saw X and Paw Patrol.

In October 2023 Exorcist: Believer and Killers of the Flower Moon were a 50-99, Five Night at Freddy's was a 100-149 and Taylor Swift Eras Tour was 150-199. After Joker, Smile and Venom, I'm not seeing too many other candidates in October to make more than 50 million.

Piece by Piece? It would be a pretty big disappointment for a LEGO movie to make less than $50 million.

It would've made way more coming out a few years ago when a) LEGO movies were on trend and b) closer to when Pharell had that Minions hit song, but still, $50m isn't a high bar.

50-99

2023 (19): A Man Called Otto, M3gan, Cocaine Bear, Jesus Revolution, Shazam 2, Dungeons and Dragons, Air, Evil Dead Rise, No Hard Feelings, Insidious: The Red Door, Haunted Mansion, Meg 2: The Trench, Blue Beetle, The Equalizer 3, The Nun II, Saw X, Paw Patrol: The Mighty Movie, Exorcist: Believer, Killers of the Flower Moon
2024 (13 - projected): Mean Girls, The Beekeeper, Bob Marley, Civil War, Challengers, The Fall Guy, Furiosa, Garfield, Longlegs, Transformers One, Joker: Folie a Deux, Terrifier 3, Smile 2

100-149

2023 (5): Scream IV, Fast X, The Flash, Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem, Five Nights at Freddy's
2024 (6 - projected): Ghostbusters Afterlife, IF, It Ends With Us, Alien: Romulus, The Wild Robot, Venom: The Last Dance

150-199:

2023 (8): Creed III, John Wick: Chapter IV, Transformers: Rise of the Beasts, Elemental, Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny, The Sound of Freedom, Mission Impossible: Dead Reckoning, Taylor Swift: The Eras Tour
2024 (4): Kung Fu Panda 4, Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes, A Quiet Place: Day One, Bad Boys: Ride or Die

A decent month for mids, especially considering movies like Conclave, We Live in Time, The Substance and Anora likely won't get there (maybe some chance for Conclave) but have some traction. The Wild Robot may challenge the 150+ list.

Last November hit The Marvels, Napolean and Wish for 50-100, Trolls 3 for 101-149 and The Hunger Games for 151-199

If in January someone said "Civil War looks really good, it will definitely out-gross Joker 2", they would be laughed off the forum. Close family members might even call the asylum.

But it happened. It really is one of those chance-in-a-million events, just like when Emma Raducanu won the US Open being ranked 150 in the world. Or, I suppose, it's more like Novak Djokovic going out in the first round to an unseeded player, which I don't think ever happened so Joker's failure is unprecedented!

Joker 2 with it's latest drop is surely missing $60M without some drive in match up with inflated box office grosses. Making 20% of Beetlejuice with 2X the budget...

December update:

50-99
2023 (22): A Man Called Otto, M3gan, Cocaine Bear, Jesus Revolution, Shazam 2, Dungeons and Dragons, Air, Evil Dead Rise, No Hard Feelings, Insidious: The Red Door, Haunted Mansion, Meg 2: The Trench, Blue Beetle, The Equalizer 3, The Nun II, Saw X, Paw Patrol: The Mighty Movie, Exorcist: Believer, Killers of the Flower Moon, The Marvels, Napoleon, Wish
2024 (13 - projected): Mean Girls, The Beekeeper, Bob Marley, Civil War, Challengers, The Fall Guy, Furiosa, Garfield, Longlegs, Transformers One, Joker: Folie a Deux, Terrifier 3, Smile 2

100-149

2023 (6): Scream IV, Fast X, The Flash, Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem, Five Nights at Freddy's, Trolls 3
2024 (6 - projected): Ghostbusters Afterlife, IF, It Ends With Us, Alien: Romulus, Venom: The Last Dance, Red One

150-199:

2023 (9): Creed III, John Wick: Chapter IV, Transformers: Rise of the Beasts, Elemental, Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny, The Sound of Freedom, Mission Impossible: Dead Reckoning, Taylor Swift: The Eras Tour, The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbird and Snakes
2024 (6 - Projected): Kung Fu Panda 4, Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes, A Quiet Place: Day One, Bad Boys: Ride or Die, The Wild Robot, Gladiator II

This year ended up being completely UN mid with everyone saving up for the four 500 million movies and getting destroyed in the 50-99 by 2023, and it's likely to get worse as December had 4 in Godzilla Minus One, Anyone But You, The Color Purple and Boys in the Boat, along with 2 100-149 in Migration and Aquaman.