I really think it would have opened to about the same amount as its ~$80M total from last November. That's still an underperformance, but not quite the embarassing bomb that (might have) shifted the industry away from those types of films.

Sure it's boring to have the same franchise kick off the summer every year, but this May feels empty without a Marvel in it and I'd say the shit gross of The Fall Guy backs that up. Franchise films are back in too after a strange year in 2023 where they were flopping left and right.

I think it would have done even worse. $46M OW with Thanksgiving to cushion its fall 3rd weekend. Maybe would have missed $70M. Just zero appetite and feels like a long and distant franchise no one was clamoring to see a sequel for.

Would've at the least done $100m+ total. Pretty baffling it had such an awful multiplier.

I think having just Deadpool this year is good but the overstuffed 2025... idk.

I think people still didn't want it, but how can you do worse, and the layoff from superhero films would've helped. Maybe low 100s total.

What about if Aquaman 2 moved to the May kickoff slot? Kind of think it'd have hit.

Dont forget Marvels flopped everywhere. Not just domestic.

Its still crazy that Dune moved and Marvels still did that bad. Had Dune stayed Marvels probably could have done worse if Dune kept Imax screens.

Aquabro 2 would have been a solid choice if the series wasn't being rebooted.

Aquaman was saved by the holidays (4.5X multiplier). It would have also been lower opening first weekend of May. 2.02X Friday/weekend multiplier (also due to Dec. 24th) but don't think it's a shock Kraven was moved there to replicate Aquaman's recovery.

I think it's possible Aquaman opens much higher in this May slot and then has more normal legs than Captain Marvel would have. Probably still <200 million though even if it has a solid 60 mil opening weekend.

It would haver done worse lmfao

Yeah, Marvels is a flop no matter what. Noone asked for it and it looked bad.

Maybe something like Dungeons and Dragons would have gone north of $45m at the start of Summer 24 (if they could have held it back from being sandwiched between Wick and Mario)

Mission Impossible would have seen an improvement IMO though given how empty April was and the overall lightness of May. It probably had of the worst release date of 2023 imo (1 week before Barbenheimer AND against the expanding SoF).

Marvels meanwhile had a fairly empty marketplace. Only 2 $35M+ OW's after Barbenheimer in July - early November. Eras and Freddy's were really the only films to open big during a 4 month period and people still didn't want to see Marvels. I'm not convinced it would have passed $30M or over The Fall Guy.