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 Wonka predictions 
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Extraordinary

Joined: Sun Jul 10, 2005 1:53 pm
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Post Re: Wonka predictions
Inflation and an open market will make this fairly straight forward to do.

Even Mary Poppins 2 which was a mid tier performer would now adjust to about $208.6M.

Wonka can probably even get to $300M off of a $35m+ OW. Just needs a decent enough start.


Tue Dec 05, 2023 1:24 am
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Superfreak
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Post Re: Wonka predictions
Yeah word of mouth looks great and the market is wide open. Tough to say where it ends but looks like another big win for WB.

Wonka 2 and Barbie 2 seem like obvious winter 2025/winter 2026 tent poles.

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Sat Dec 09, 2023 10:59 am
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Devil's Advocate
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Post Re: Wonka predictions
The weird part about this being set so well is it has a lot of the 2010s Disney elements that are flopping. I guess they’re specifically hexed.

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Sat Dec 09, 2023 2:50 pm
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Superfreak
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Post Re: Wonka predictions
I think Disney's problems are very straight forward (and correctable).

This is much more fresh and original. Also not like its going to out open the recent superhero films, its just expected to hold much better.

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Sat Dec 09, 2023 10:07 pm
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Hold the door!

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Post Re: Wonka predictions
I’m not sold on this doing THAT well. Like is 175m really THAT impressive for a potential holiday season winner? No


Sat Dec 09, 2023 10:12 pm
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Quality is a great business plan
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Post Re: Wonka predictions
Its breaking out in Europe with great legs expected. charlie is saying 10m+ in UK and 5m+ in Spain. Its probably doing 500m+WW.

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Sat Dec 09, 2023 10:16 pm
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Devil's Advocate
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Post Re: Wonka predictions
Excel wrote:
I think Disney's problems are very straight forward (and correctable).

This is much more fresh and original. Also not like its going to out open the recent superhero films, its just expected to hold much better.


Idk, other than maybe being a musical which is hidden in the trailers, I feel like it’s “safe” approach to blockbusters that executives could have come up with. Take a proven IP name, fill it with flashy CGI, make the tone light/inoffensive. Disney could have made it in their mid 2010s to early 2020s run as that’s what they did with Mary Poppins Returns. Barbie was riskier approach all around with the character not having 2 previous hits, the feminism, the shifts in the 2nd and 3rd acts (presumably Wonka’s storyline won’t be as surprising).

I think it might just be the superhero movies that died, and then the rest of Disney’s struggles this year is a bit of a coincidence.

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Sat Dec 09, 2023 11:28 pm
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Extraordinary

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Post Re: Wonka predictions
Disney's struggles are all from oversaturation, bad quality or poor distribution. It's classic Disney playbook.

Who Wants To Be A Millionaire becomes the #1 show. They end up putting it 3 or 4 times a week then it falls quickly out of the top 30 shows within a few seasons.

Definitely a Hollywood thing that's common but they go through these more because they are very good at pulling every dollar from a property that can be pulled before it becomes stale and then move on to the next thing.

Disney re-imaginings, Pixar, MCU, Star Wars, Disney animation, they will be fine but out of all of these properties I feel like Star Wars seems like its in the worst shape. Going to take a new generation to feel it's fresh again.


Sun Dec 10, 2023 1:40 pm
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Post Re: Wonka predictions
43.2m OS.

https://twitter.com/BORReport/status/17 ... 0586645535

Quote:
Estimated debuts this weekend include:
U.K - $11.1M
Mexico - $5.2M
Spain - $4.4M
Germany - $3.6M
China - $3.2M
Japan - $2.8M
Brazil - $2.0M

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Sun Dec 10, 2023 1:52 pm
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Wallflower
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Post Re: Wonka predictions
Apparently did around 3.5 Million in Thursday previews.


Fri Dec 15, 2023 11:11 am
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