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zwackerm
Hold the door!
Joined: Sun Jun 01, 2014 10:26 pm Posts: 21472 Location: West Chester, Pennsylvania
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 September 29-October 1 Predictions
Saw 10 23m The Creator 19m Paw Patrol 17m Dumb Money 12m
Last edited by zwackerm on Tue Sep 26, 2023 12:22 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Fri Sep 22, 2023 7:50 am |
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Shack
Devil's Advocate
Joined: Sun Jul 31, 2005 2:30 am Posts: 40260
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 Re: September 29-October 1
No idea but at least there being four is interesting.
The Creator - 20 Saw X - 15 Paw Patrol - 15 Dumb Money - 5
Tbh Saw would’ve been better off moving TO Taylor Swift rather than have this horrible release date.
The Creator has always felt like a mid level September success.
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Fri Sep 22, 2023 12:38 pm |
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Flava'd vs The World
The Kramer
Joined: Sat Oct 23, 2004 11:36 am Posts: 25194 Location: Classified
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 Re: September 29-October 1
Saw being back in spooky season should help it do much better than Spiral at least. Though I keep reading online that "this is the most excited Saw fans have been since 3" and that sounds like a bunch of bullshit. $14M
I hope The Creator does well just for the sake of large budget original films. Yet, as we've seen many many times, the amount of people who say they want Hollywood to make more original movies is a lot larger than the people who actually go see original movies when they do come out. $12M.
Dumb Money should have opened this weekend against Expend4bles. Probably would have gone To The Moon for a #1 opening. Now it will have to fight for screens. $7M but it should stick around longer than the others.
So Paw Patrol will win with about $20M.
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Fri Sep 22, 2023 1:11 pm |
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publicenemy#1
Extraordinary
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 12:25 am Posts: 19373 Location: San Diego
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 Re: September 29-October 1
Wow pretty crowded weekend.
There seems to be good buzz on the Creator but I don't see it doing above $16m. I saw Dumb Money last night, idk if there's a big audience for it but it's pretty strange to see covid world in theaters so soon lol
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Fri Sep 22, 2023 1:45 pm |
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Algren
now we know
Joined: Tue Oct 19, 2004 9:31 pm Posts: 68230 Location: Seattle, WA
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 Re: September 29-October 1
The winner will be "Saw Patrol". I can't see the other two causing much of a ripple.
Jigsaw coming back is a medium deal. It being back in Halloween season is a medium deal. And it being the tenth movie is also something of note. These sorts of things matter. It gives people reasons to prick up their ears, to want to check it out. Unlike The Creator that is just a whole lot of action beige upon Terminator beige upon sci-fi beige. I'm sure it's a decent film and all but the marketing just doesn't give people anything to latch on to. I see it being a less popular Chappie or Alita: Battle Angel. And I've been beating the Paw Patrol drum for a while now. It's the only kids film out for weeks before and weeks after it, so it should do well even if it doesn't open well, but I still think the weekend is between Paw and Saw for #1.
And Dumb Money can fuck off. That's a streaming release if even I saw one.
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Fri Sep 22, 2023 3:02 pm |
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Magic Mike
Wallflower
Joined: Mon Oct 25, 2004 4:53 am Posts: 35203 Location: Minnesota
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 Re: September 29-October 1
At the moment I'd say Saw X. It's nice to see a Saw movie release much earlier in the Halloween season. That's smart. Releasing Halloween weekend or near it would get entries a big opening (at least in the beginning), but they cut legs short. This one could have better legs during October. Though The Exorcist will knock it down a bit. And of course theaters wanting to give as many showings as possible to Taylor Swift on the 13th won't help.
If it does debut over 20 Million, that would be a solid return for the franchise.
Either that or Paw Patrol should be #1.
I can see anywhere from 11-14 Million for The Creator. I thought it would be 11 tops before the great reviews. So those should help.
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Sun Sep 24, 2023 10:27 am |
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MadGez
Dont Mess with the Gez
Joined: Sun Oct 24, 2004 9:54 am Posts: 23258 Location: Melbourne Australia
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 Re: September 29-October 1
Now at least this will be an interesting weekend!
Saw X - $19m Paw Patrol - $16m The Creator - $15m Dumb Money - $10m
Saw X should have the edge, but I can also see it underwhelming. Paw Patrol will do well (ad have good legs) but the franchise is limited to very young kids (and the TV show is still on) so I'd say upside is limited.
Combined they should pump between $50 and $60m into the BO which is good for September.
Dumb Money seems to be expanding well so it may scrape into double digits.
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Sun Sep 24, 2023 8:18 pm |
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Magic Mike
Wallflower
Joined: Mon Oct 25, 2004 4:53 am Posts: 35203 Location: Minnesota
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 Re: September 29-October 1
I change my mind. Looking at sales at several theaters for Friday, Paw Patrol is doing very well. I think it will open to 20+.
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Mon Sep 25, 2023 11:55 am |
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Algren
now we know
Joined: Tue Oct 19, 2004 9:31 pm Posts: 68230 Location: Seattle, WA
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 Re: September 29-October 1
Magic Mike wrote: I change my mind. Looking at sales at several theaters for Friday, Paw Patrol is doing very well. I think it will open to 20+. 
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Mon Sep 25, 2023 2:39 pm |
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zwackerm
Hold the door!
Joined: Sun Jun 01, 2014 10:26 pm Posts: 21472 Location: West Chester, Pennsylvania
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 Re: September 29-October 1 Predictions
Creator starts at 100%, 7.2/10 avg. rating
Should probably settle in the mid to high 80's.
Hoping it does alright.
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Tue Sep 26, 2023 12:23 pm |
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Algren
now we know
Joined: Tue Oct 19, 2004 9:31 pm Posts: 68230 Location: Seattle, WA
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 Re: September 29-October 1 Predictions
So what do we reckon then, regarding Expend4bles second weekend drop? I'm going with -72%
Not only is it a cheap looking film, it's also quite bad and has the scores to prove it. Plus it's the sort of film that anyone who wants to see it goes in the opening week. And with The Creator and Saw X opening, EX4 is not going to get people wandering to the multiplexes unsure of what to see.
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Tue Sep 26, 2023 3:22 pm |
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Magic Mike
Wallflower
Joined: Mon Oct 25, 2004 4:53 am Posts: 35203 Location: Minnesota
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 Re: September 29-October 1 Predictions
Saw X looks like it's going to be the first Saw movie to be fresh on Rotten Tomatoes. Hopefully good reviews will get more people to the theater.
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Thu Sep 28, 2023 11:40 am |
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Shack
Devil's Advocate
Joined: Sun Jul 31, 2005 2:30 am Posts: 40260
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 Re: September 29-October 1 Predictions
It sounds like the Creator is one of the best looking films of the year visually while having a relative modest budget (80 mil) in part due to using more location filming over green screen. At the least they can learn from what Gareth Edwards did for bigger blockbusters.
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Thu Sep 28, 2023 11:55 am |
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