Im thinking MI7 will beat IJ5 domestically and worldwide. Dead Reckoning is following Fallout and Top Gun Maverick and will likely be fantastic while Indiana Jones 5 is following 4 (which hasn’t gained any appreciation over the years unlike the SW prequels), Ford is considered too old now, and Kathleen Kennedy and co will likely screw it up. But is this what most people are thinking already?

https://m.the-numbers.com/movie/Indiana ... ab=summary

https://m.the-numbers.com/movie/Mission ... ab=summary


Both had very similar WW grosses, with Indy trending more domestic. But yes, for the reasons you mentioned Fallout will beat Indy domestically and WW. It won’t even be close.

WW, maybe. Domestically, probably not. Crystal Skull adjusts to 430m. So Dead Reckoning would need to probably gross at least 300m domestic which is possible but I'd say unlikely as I expect IJ5 should do 300m with relative ease.

Yes

I didn't realize IJ4's adjusted was so high. Nvm on Dead Reckoning beating it domestically.

YUP! it'll beat it Domestic AND Worldwide. Indiana Jones franchise was killed with the last one.

The distance between Last Crusade and Crystal Skulls is only 4 yrs longer than Crystal Skulls and the IJ5 release date.

Indy 5 will be big. It will act like the swan song of not only Indiana Jones but also Harrison Ford. He even teared up recently at a presentation. Although one has been made not that long ago, it will also borrow some of that Top Gun: Maverick 80s blockbuster nostalgia.

I'm not sure if it will beat Dead Reckoning. My gut says no, but it will be close. But Indy needs to be good. There will be questions asked, and it needs to convince the doubters that have occurred since the fourth movie (of which I'm one). If it can then I think its upside is greater than that of yet another Mission: Impossible movie. If Dead Reckoning is great, it doesn't go up or down from Fallout because it's expected that these movies are great. The only thing in its favour, and it's a biggie, is how much will it benefit from the Top Gun/Tom Cruise follow-up buzz. My guess is a bit, but not a lot.

Gun to my head, I'd go for Dead Reckoning, but don't rule out a top quality Indy 5 beating it.

Which is quite shocking when you consider how old Ford was in Skulls - who'd have thought he'd be making another one 14 years later.

I think think the nostlagia factor that helped TGM will help Indy (though not to the same extent perhaps). If it's a good/great film that restores faith in the franchise, I can see it being quite huge. It should win domestically but MI:DR will likely edge it WW.

This is tough but feeling the TGM goodwill may be too high. Uncharted made a huge amount simply as Holland's follow up to Spiderman.

Maybe, but it will be a fight for sure

Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny

Not sure about that title. It'll grow on me. But damn, the trailer is excellent. This should win against Cruise, unfortunately. But both these dudes being at the top of the box office in their 60s and 70s is a win for me and my interests. Action movies making a comeback! Not this Nancy boy superhero stuff, but proper action.

Iffy title, and trailer makes it feel better than Crystal Skull, still not sure this will be massive massive, but I give it the edge on MI for now but I think it's close, expect both films to do really well.

MI7 was filmed in early 2020. Sheesh. So long ago.



Wikipedia excerpt for Dead Reckoning Part 2:

On March 24, 2022, Collider reported the beginning of principal photography of Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part Two.[27] Filming took place in the UK at Longcross Studios and the Lake District. Other locations included Malta, South Africa and Norway. In December 2022, it was reported filming was finished in the UK.[28] The crew, then, moved to Puglia to continue filming aboard the USS George H.W. Bush aircraft carrier.[29]


That's an insanely long production (like MI:7). I hope and pray Cruise survives whatever stunts they've dreamed up.

Also why does it feel like McQuarrie has directed more Mission Impossible movies. It's only been 2, until now.

He's done four by my count. But if you're not counting the two yet-to-be-released films then maybe it feels like more because McQuarrie has had a history with Cruise incl. directing Jack Reacher, producing Valkyrie and Maverick, and writing The Mummy, Edge of Tomorrow and Maverick.

These two movies are such big wildcards.

80s nostalgia is strong so could favor IJ.

MI can ride the TGM halo.

Would be great if both vastly overperform.

I'll give it to MI for the win because I'm expecting a dramatic domestic increase.

Dead Reckoning moves up to Wednesday to get two extra days of imax for itself at Indy's expense.

hoping I'm wrong about this

I still think MI is being overpredicted. I think Indiana looks great but I guess there's a chance it just does fine.

This thread now makes for a fun read.

But in terms of domestic, Indy 5 has officially "closed", so M:I will chip away at its gross every single day, even if it's only making a pittance. As of Thursday, the difference is $2,821,879. I still don't think M:I has that much left in its tank but we'll see how close it gets.

$2,821,879 gap on Thursday is $2,478,466 gap as of Sunday.

Nothing certain but maybe a slower fall or adding theaters later could bring the gap (if the studio cares). Clearly Disney didn't care for $300M for TLM so hard to tell these days.

Dead Reckoning stopped reporting domestic grosses on Sep 21, so I guess that settles that. Indy won.