First number coming in from Deadline, estimated $16M from Thursday previews. Behind only Incredibles 2 ($18.5M) in animated previews.

Wow. So $130m+ should happen. Hoping TLM drops less than 60%.

Definitely too low. I am seeing 18m for now.

No idea how front loaded it will be. Gut tells me it will be less front loaded than MCU films but still more front loaded than Incredibles 2

17.35m for Spiderverse and 1.1m for Boogeyman.

$6.8m, -17% drop Thursday for TLM. Seems pretty strong considering it lost premium screens. Would be nice if the weekend drop is below 55%.

Little Mermaid would need a legendarily poor Friday increase to miss 40m for the weekend.

More likely it does 44-45m based on that Thursday

If Mermaid does $300M+ would be a big win for Disney and their reimaginings but also don't want a flood of reimaginings and a focus on originals too.

Spider-verse is apparently the 7th longest animated film ever at 140 minutes so think that will help its legs (on top of the critical and audience reception). It's a bit more of a time commitment to families than usual. 25 minutes longer than the last one.

Demo info:
-39% guys under 25, 28% guys over 25
-21% women under 25 and 11% women over 25.
-Hispanic/Latino 33%, Caucasians 30%, Black 20% and Asian 11%.
-Parents and kids 16% with boys under 12 at 63% to 37% girls

Original:
-26% guys <25, 41% guys 25+
-Boys <12 70% and girls<12 30%.
-43% Caucasian, 21% Hispanic, 16% Black, 15% Asian.

So mostly previews but a spike in share for younger guys on the sequel from 26% to 39% and the Hispanic and Black audience (+12% and +4% respectably). Also more <12 girls (+7%) in terms of audience so that could have an impact on Mermaid.

$17.35M is a great preview number though it does end the dream of Spiderverse beating Incredibles 2. Oh well, guess we'll just have to wait a few more months for that to happen.

Sunday hold should be fantastic. I bet the weekend is estimated in the $113-116M but ends up over $120M. And hopefully we can do even better than that! Everyone go see it!

$130m is wow? Dude, people were predicting $180m+

Just to be clear, I don't consider the game "real" predictions at least on my part. So $130M isn't a disappointment for Spider-verse in a rational sense (also considering it has a $100M budget).

It's hard to score well in the middle or in range so going on the outliers give a greater chance to maybe get ahead points wise.

For instance, I don't realistically think both Transformers $23M and Elemental $21M will go that low but I have a higher chance of points than if I stay in the range of others predictions.

Just my personal strategy. If there was no contest, I'd realistically probably had done $150-155M but a bunch of people were predicting in that range.

Realize this is easy to say after the fact but I think based on my past predictions in other months its clear I tend to go overall on a pattern side either too high or too low (and in some cases 1 movie costs me the win from being so far off).

Sort of like the stock market. The real impact is from the outliers that not everyone else is in. But it can also lead to another last place finish which I know all too well.

There are some movies that beat even the highest predictions, so I was aiming for that after hearing it's the movie this summer who's presales are on fire

Fast X has fallen behind Guardians 3, lol

Deadline early Friday

Spider-verse $40M+ / $100M-$110M 3day

Mermaid $12M / $42M-$44M -54% $189.7M

Guardians of the Galaxy $3M / $10.5M -49% $322.9M

The Boogeyman $4.5M / $10M+

Fast X $2.4M / $8.3M -64% $127.5M

Very, very good hold for Mermaid (off of Memorial Weekend and Spiderverse) and GOTG. Bad for Fast. Could miss $150M.

This weekend looks to be HIGHER than Memorial Weekend. Last time that happened was 2017 when Wonder Woman opened (and Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Men Tell No Tales disappointed) with ironically a GOTG2 as a holdover and a Fast movie in the top 10 fast disappearing (and a Disney reimaging just at #11 with BATB). Hollywood certainly likes to repeat itself.

Good for Little mermaid hopefully everything else goes up

Hmmm I don't see Spiderverse being that low for the weekend but I guess let's see how frontloaded it is. Go TLM.

That's disappointing for The Boogeyman too. I don't think the title is very good. Adults aren't scared of the boogeyman, kids are, so making horror aimed at adults with that title is counterintuitive. It's suffering from the same thing The Bye Bye Man did - a silly title. It will probably end up with a similar total if that "$10m" is to be believed.

Damn, I was really hoping for around $20m. I guess the summer horror breakout will have to wait for Insidious: The Red Door.

Now that's worthy of wow .... "wow, so low"

Didn't you predict sub-90m? Wouldn't above 100m be surprising for you...?

If Mermaid pulls a $42M weekend would need a 3.68 multiplier for the rest of its run to get to $300M.

Guess Elemental / Flash weekend will be the big test. Though the double feature possibility should help it with another Disney release.

$300M would be a big deal. Also a great sign for the box office to support 4 $300M+ movies (if Spiderverse gets there too) in a 9 week period with Mario and GOTG3.

I predicted $108m in the game. But my shock is at all you box office wizards getting it so wrong.

The sky is falling! Next update will have it opening under Into The Spiderverse.

That would be like doctor strange 2 front loading

I think Deadline's number is either a joke or a typo. I am sure its not anywhere near in that ballpark. Let us wait for evening update.

Shawn Robbins from Boxoffice.com at BOT

$48.5m Spider

$12.5m TLM

$3.9m Boogey
Posted these on Twitter, direct from an industry source (not Sony).

 

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