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 May 20-22 Predictions 

Will Downton Abbey break 20m OW?
Yes 43%  43%  [ 3 ]
No 57%  57%  [ 4 ]
Total votes : 7

 May 20-22 Predictions 
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Hold the door!

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Post May 20-22 Predictions
Downton Abbey: A New Era- 24
Men- 6

Downton is selling well around me and has a lot of younger fans as well as older. Thinking the drop won't be super severe, though it wills till drop.

Men looks more accessible than X so I see it doing a bit better

Doctor Strange- -45%
Firestarter- -70%

Chip N Dale Rescue Rangers should have opened theatrically this weekend


Fri May 13, 2022 8:12 am
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Star Trek XI

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Post Re: May 20-22 Predictions
I’m really excited for it but I’ve heard about the climatic scene in Men and it is just :whaa: I think it’s going to polarize people HEAVILY and no doubt the Cinemascore will be atrocious. I didn’t like X much but I think it was A24’s most accessible horror movie and I don’t think Men will be nearly as much . Be careful looking on Variety’s review I didn’t see the spoiler disclaimer and while there was a warning in the review, I didn’t think it would spoil it


Sat May 14, 2022 11:23 am
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Wallflower
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Post Re: May 20-22 Predictions
I think Men looks weird AF. X was a straight-forward slasher. Men will be less accessible IMO. Also best case for the CinemaScore would be a C- and only because of hardcore A24 fans going opening night. I'm going 3 Million on it. Maybe it can reach 4 Million. But I don't think it opens any higher.


Sat May 14, 2022 11:36 am
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Hold the door!

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Post Re: May 20-22 Predictions
X was about porn. That automatically makes it inaccessible, regardless of if its a slasher.


Sat May 14, 2022 4:45 pm
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The Kramer
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Post Re: May 20-22 Predictions
Secrets of Dumbledore should have opened this weekend. It's weird having such a previously important summer weekend be left for Downton Abbey 2.


Sat May 14, 2022 4:49 pm
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Post Re: May 20-22 Predictions
Downton Abbey: A New Era - $18 million
Men - $2.9 million

Had been cautiously optimistic about DA2 but the declines in the foreign markets, particularly the UK, are troubling, coupled with the fact that its main demo of 50+ remains hesitant to go to the theater (my parents are massive Downton fans and I don't even know if they'll be going to make the trip to see it).

Do we have a theater count for Men? I think it already looks too ""weird"" for mainstream auds to make much money opening weekend, before crashing right afterwards. Wonder if this can finally net A24 their first F Cinemascore?


Sun May 15, 2022 12:40 pm
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Star Trek XI

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Post Re: May 20-22 Predictions
Jonathan wrote:
Wonder if this can finally net A24 their first F Cinemascore?


After reading about the aforementioned climatic body horror scene I wouldn’t be surprised at all, I was kinda shocked when I read it tbh and I’m used to offbeat, arthouse like movies. I feel like it’ll have mother! like reception


Sun May 15, 2022 12:58 pm
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Post Re: May 20-22 Predictions
zwackerm wrote:
X was about porn. That automatically makes it inaccessible, regardless of if its a slasher.


Let's not pretend the target audience doesn't watch porn though. It does make it a bit more niche, but at least it didn't look super weird.


Sun May 15, 2022 1:20 pm
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Wallflower
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Post Re: May 20-22 Predictions
Jonathan wrote:
Do we have a theater count for Men? I think it already looks too ""weird"" for mainstream auds to make much money opening weekend, before crashing right afterwards. Wonder if this can finally net A24 their first F Cinemascore?



If Men were a bigger studio film and not A24 I feel like it would easily get an F. But a decent amount of people know what they're getting into with A24 movies. That will help offset any average moviegoer that just stumbles into it because they are horror fans. I won't say it can't get an F but it will more likely be in the D range.


Sun May 15, 2022 1:21 pm
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The Kramer
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Post Re: May 20-22 Predictions
Men has a terrible title. The audience laughed at it when I saw the trailer. Ex Machina and Annihilation were such cool titles that made people feel like they'd be cool by watching.

Also, I didn't realize that Garland wrote the two 28 Days movies and Sunshine and The Beach. Very impressive.


Mon May 16, 2022 2:26 pm
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Post Re: May 20-22 Predictions
I didn't realize the first time I saw the Men trailer that the same actor played all the roles, if they had a higher profile actor or someone with a clear identifiable look it might have worked better, maybe Oscar Isaac is too busy to reunite with Garland but Domhnall Gleeson or Nick Offerman would have been interesting. Then again I guess the point is she's not supposed to recognize them as easily?

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Mon May 16, 2022 2:43 pm
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Post Re: May 20-22 Predictions
Downtown Abbey release looks very small. There are shows on wednesday as well. But this does not look like opening big. Probably around mid teens OW.

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Mon May 16, 2022 4:24 pm
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Star Trek XI

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Post Re: May 20-22 Predictions
The audience laughing at the title for Men is beyond ridiculous, its happened twice for me now, like really :disgust: . Can’t wait to finally go see it Thursday night.


Mon May 16, 2022 5:09 pm
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Wallflower
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Post Re: May 20-22 Predictions
I'm always nervous when the Men trailer shows in front of something (which happens a lot). I am just waiting for people to laugh when the title is shown. It really hasn't been THAT bad but there are usually a couple laughs.


Tue May 17, 2022 12:36 am
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Star Trek XI

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Post Re: May 20-22 Predictions
It’s happened twice for me and it is kinda understandable with a title kinda bland and odd for such an ominous trailer. It hasn’t been all that bad for me either but some groups in my audience for X were obnoxious (not just with the trailer but the movie itself) and of course had a ball with that title lol, so annoying.

Does anyone know the theater count? I wonder if it will be polled for CS.


Tue May 17, 2022 9:33 am
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Extraordinary

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Post Re: May 20-22 Predictions
A big shame Disney didn't just release the Chip and Dale movie, it's getting some raves.

Quote:
It’s the funniest movie of the year so far, either animated or live-action.

Quote:
Everything the recent Space Jam sequel desperately attempted but failed to be.


https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/movie ... 235147554/

Other reviews:

Quote:
Chip 'n Dale: Rescue Rangers is as close as it gets to a spiritual sequel of Who Framed Roger Rabbit.

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Disney shows real self-deprecating humor and a willingness to play with other studios. Somehow, a new Chip ’N Dale movie is their most forward-thinking project.


Tue May 17, 2022 12:42 pm
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Extraordinary
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Post Re: May 20-22 Predictions
Yeah considering how barren the market is that could've probably done very well.


Tue May 17, 2022 3:37 pm
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Hold the door!

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Post Re: May 20-22 Predictions
Downton Abbey previews should be inflated due to Wednesday previews as well


Thu May 19, 2022 10:20 am
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Wallflower
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Post Re: May 20-22 Predictions
j_forest23 wrote:
It’s happened twice for me and it is kinda understandable with a title kinda bland and odd for such an ominous trailer. It hasn’t been all that bad for me either but some groups in my audience for X were obnoxious (not just with the trailer but the movie itself) and of course had a ball with that title lol, so annoying.

Does anyone know the theater count? I wonder if it will be polled for CS.


2,212 theaters for Men. I've gotta hand it to A24 for putting these movies out in wide release with proper marketing.


Thu May 19, 2022 7:20 pm
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Hold the door!

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Post Re: May 20-22 Predictions
All the theaters around me have dropped The Lost City and kept Secrets of Dumbledore which has a lower PTA. Hopefully it can still cross 100m.


Fri May 20, 2022 10:55 am
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Hold the door!

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Post Re: May 20-22 Predictions
Downton Abbey A New Era- 1.05m

Yikes! That's even worse than Death on the Nile! Could it do sub 10m with that?


Fri May 20, 2022 11:26 am
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Post Re: May 20-22 Predictions
zwackerm wrote:
Downton Abbey A New Era- 1.05m

Yikes! That's even worse than Death on the Nile! Could it do sub 10m with that?


That's pretty bad - I thought there was more hype for this among its fanbase?

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Fri May 20, 2022 12:07 pm
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Hold the door!

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Post Re: May 20-22 Predictions
Men 423k

Should be good for a 5m debut with that.


Fri May 20, 2022 1:58 pm
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Wallflower
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Post Re: May 20-22 Predictions
X did $440,000 and opened with 4.275 Million. So Men should probably do 4 Million or so.


Fri May 20, 2022 2:05 pm
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Hold the door!

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Post Re: May 20-22 Predictions
Apparently the 1.05m figure is only Thursday and does not include Wednesday. Bodes slightly better and suggests 15m weekend.


Fri May 20, 2022 4:12 pm
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