6m

Seems solid enough. 40m looks good with that.

I think previews started at 2pm? Essentially was like OD lol

I think if it passes 100m then it won't look that embarassing.

Down -34% from Grindelwald previews despite starting 3 hours earlier on the day before many people have school/work off. With Grindelwald's preview-to-weekend multiplier it would make $41 million...considering the above factors I'm really starting to to wonder if sub-$40M might happen.

Grindelwald's thursday preview was actually only 7.3m, not 9.1m, since an earlier preview that week was included in the 9.1m number. So it's only down 18%, and would hit 51m if it followed Grindelwald's trajectory

If they make a fourth one, they need to make a "future potion" or something for a multi-verse and join up with Harry, Hermoine and Ron. That would help it get a $100M+ OW.

I think if the original 3 want to come back, they're better off just bailing on Fantastic Beasts and doing an adult HP sequel

They could do the future potion idea with old Dumbledore or McGonagall or something though

On the whole I'd say it's time to just pull the cord, if they go to 4 or 5 serious risk of having one of them open to 25-30 million and be a Dark Phoenix type disaster that loses major money and damages the HP brand. It's a good time to go away and still have enough good will before the eventual Force Awakens attempt if the big 3 come back.

If this does like $400m WW they should make one final one tying everything together. This one could serve as a final film but would be an embarassing ending.

If this were the final film, the ending is good enough to finish it while leaving some to the imagination. That said, it would be disappointing to not see the Dumbledore/Grindelwald duel. I hope it does well enough WW to make another one financially feasible. I thought Secrets of Dumbledore was good, but I also haven't seen a wizarding world movie I didn't like.

Rehire Depp if there’s a 4th?

I think JK Rowling planned a 5 movie plot for this ending with Dumbledore killing Grindelwald. I doubt that JK Rowling will admit she's failed and have Warner Media change the plot of this movie series. It is more likely Warner Media will cut its loss, end the series, and wait a few years before trying again, hoping JK Rowling will agree to their new ideas.

If it can do over $100m, I would expect them to go ahead with little change of plans. They must know that overseas earnings are a problem across the board with COVID problems (China, South Korea, etc.), a war, and unfavorable exchange rates. OS/WW totals are going to be pretty meh likely all summer.

However, they probably should see if they can conclude it with a fourth film in case that one fails and keeps a fifth and final film from being made.

If JKR is passionate about completing this though, I would imagine she'll do what she can financially to help finish it. Having a film presence also helps keep merchandise and book sales for Harry Potter / Wizarding World strong by keeping it in the public eye. There's a hell of a lot of money there to help with/recover theatrical losses. HP book sales added another 50 million between the first FB film and 2018. The Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them original screenplay also sold 420,000 copies in the UK, for example, so probably over 1 million WW.

WB should cut you a cheque, you may have just saved the franchise with that suggestion. Dumbledore could even meet his older future self ala X-Men Days of Future Past.

WB definitely has a "Break In Case of Emergency" Cursed Child script that they probably really wanna use, but Radcliffe made pretty clear last month that he has zero interest in returning to the role any time soon, and I doubt Watson has any interest right now either. WB would probably be best off just letting the franchise sit quiet for a while before trying something new.

20.1m overall previews+Friday. That's better than I was expecting, at least it shouldn't go below $40m.

From BOR:

1. #SecretsOfDumbledore - $20.10M
2. #SonicMovie2 - $10.85M
3. #TheLostCity - $2.07M
4. #EverythingEverywhere - $1.92M
5. #FatherStuMovie - $1.64M
6. #Morbius - $1.58M
7. #AmbulanceMovie - $1.30M
8. #TheBatman - $1.28M

Couldn't find a comparable with an Easter opener since 2018, but with the super early Thursday previews, let's follow Ready Player One as a worse case multiple for Fantastic:

Combined Thur/Fri: $26.95M
Total by Sunday: $53.71M

1.99 multiplier at worst. Should be solid to pass $40M by Sunday and likely clear $45M. $100M isn't impossible but not guaranteed until we see a Sat number.

Lost City looks to have had the best hold after Everything Everywhere but that film also doubled its screens. Solid weekend overall with 7 weekends in a row now with at least 1 movie at $30M+.

$43m for Fantastic Beasts. Honestly could've been worse but still not great. They should make one final film and call it a day.

Sonic's drop is very good.

Flop! Franchise is done. Another one will be a Dark Phoenix sized disaster.