Toy Story 3 was arguably extremely hyped and probably one of the most hyped animated films ever at the time. It seemed like a prime candidate to pass Shrek The Third OW ($121.6M) and Shrek 2 total ($441.2M) for animated records at the time, but it didn’t ($110.3M OW and $415M total), although globally it was the first animated film to hit the $1B, so it was still a huge success. But it felt like it should have been able to pass Shrek 2 in the US, given it likely had hype comparable to Incredibles 2 for Pixar at the time, although its weekend drops were kinda erratic, it dropped 46%, 49%, then 31% in its 4th weekend when Despicable Me opened, but the next weekend it dropped 43%, then 25% the next weekend, but then 43% the following weekend. I thought that was kinda weird, but it still had amazing legs so let’s move on.

So Toy Story 4 opened 9 years later and made $120.9M OW which was below the aggressive and overhyped $140-170M tracking, but it was still above TS3 unadjusted and was good considering nobody wanted TS4 until the reviews came out and were just as good as the previous 3 films, and it had good legs like Toy Story 3 and passed it eventually. It was going strong until about mid-August when it dropped 52.5% in its 9th weekend, which was unusual given that it was already legging better than Incredibles 2 and Finding Dory in terms of drops and dailies (Dory having the worst drops and dailies of the bunch because of The Secret Life of Pets hitting it head-on in its 4th weekend), but it had worse August legs than Incredibles 2, despite I2 having a crowded August with holdover M:I- Fallout, plus Christopher Robin in the family marketplace, along with The Meg, Crazy Rich Asians, etc. While TS4 had an equal amount of competition, it didn’t have the same drops in August, and thus fell short of Shrek 2 (the range for its total in early August was $430-440M after it held well against Spider-Man: Far From Home and The Lion King) with $434M. Overall, I2 had a more crowded summer than TS4 (other than TS4, the only other hits until August were Aladdin, John Wick 3, FFH, and TLK, while I2 had Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom, AM&TW, Hotel Transylvania 3, M:I- Fallout, plus Christopher Robin which wasn’t really a hit but still family competition).

So why was neither film able to pass Shrek 2 when both had better reviews and WOM than Shrek 2? Was competition really an issue?

Shrek was more popular than either Toy Story or Toy Story 2. And Shrek 2 is absolutely amazing, came out in an era where CGI films were events just for being CGI, plus Toy Story 4 had big competition with Despicable Me. The only family competition that came out near Shrek 2was HP3, and even that was scary for young children.

Yeah I do remember people saying HP3 was dark. One of my friends said he cried because it was so scary. I think that was the reason HP3 didn’t do as well at the B.O.

EDIT: and I think you meant to put Toy Story 3 instead of Toy Story 4 haha.

TS3 had Despicable Me; TS4 had Aladdin, Spidey, and The Lion King.

At that point Shrek was more famous and there were much less animated movies in the year which allowed for better legs. Shrek 3 killed the franchise.

I forgot TS4 grossed more than TS3 lol

I mean Shrek franchise didn't really keep up with those grosses. I think if they ever made a new one it would do really well though.

Because Shrek 2 has Puss N Boots and Toy Story does not.

Shrek 5 needs to happen. Honestly wouldn't be surprised if it became the biggest film in the franchise.

It would need to be as good as the first two and not like Shrek 3 or 4, otherwise it wouldn’t do as well as some think (I’ve heard talk of $1B for Shrek 5 before on Reddit)

TS4 passed TS3 on OW ($120.9M VW $110.3M) and in domestic grosses ($434M vs $415M). I think exchange rates is what caused it to fall below TS3 overseas, though it wasn’t by much ($639.4M vs $652M). Although worldwide it was able to pass TS3 ($1.074B vs $1.067B) because of the bigger domestic gross than TS3.

If its good Shrek 5 could really be a good idea and has the potential to cross $1B WW.

Shrek (2001) was such a word of mouth hit and became insanely popular with every quadrant that the sequel was always going to explode.

Interestingly, many will remember how the Wednesday opening was so deflated, many of us thought Shrek 2 was flopping lol. That was before it's epic weekend.

I struggle to see a hypothetical TS5 being able to match the quality of the first 2 when 3 and 4 didnt come even close imho. Sort of feel like they've done all they really could with the franchise at this point in terms of where to take the plot.

Edit: *Shrek5, not TS5...

There are more characters in TS world to say goodbye.

Wooops, I meant to say Shrek5, not TS5. <_< My bad.

Shrek 4 wasn't bad but #3 left a lot of bad taste, with good time passed now there is a good demand of either a reboot or a great sequel.

I don't think the quality of Shrek 3 or 4 matter at all in this case, because Shrek has exploded in popularity over the last few years. The character (and series) has gained a new generation of fans that likely care very little about the reception of the sequels.

Wasn't a big fan of 4 myself either, but I really struggle to see where to take the plot in a sequel at this point. A reboot perhaps would work out better.


Has it? I'm actually curious as to why that is. Was it a big hit on streaming services?

Shrek became a hugely popular meme several years back, then just took off from there for some reason. (Which is why I said it's gained fans from a new generation.) I don't know why exactly, and would normally dismiss it as just part of the meme craze, but it honestly feels bigger than that from what I can read into it considering its lasting relevance.

They also re-released the first Shrek for a 3-day event back in April, and I remember reading it was a hit.

So, if a Shrek 5 is to ever happen, now seems like the most opportune time to get it out.

Shrek franchise is mostly intolerable IMO, but the first one was like generational WOM hit for a family film, and the sequel arrived ahead of the CGI explosion. TS3 had the benefit of nostalgia, but was also hardly striking while the iron was hot. I2 was a special case being the one Pixar film that demanded a sequel and had over a decade of pent-up demand for it.