http://www.worldofkj.com/Articles/Arsal ... hHiker.php

WoKJ's box office analysis is up.

updated

Nice balanced analysis. I agree with you on the positives and negatives.

just like batman, this is a tough one to predict. My prediction at the end has assumed that the movie will meet respectable amount of acceptance. And if that does happen, the 2 things that are really really working in its favor are

a) Release date
b) Lack of any real comedy in a looooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooong time.
c) Something different (though this can also blow up in its face).

Hitchhiker is probably one of the toughest calls this year just because it will either be successful or a complete failure, I don't see any room in between. I've even gone back and forth on it thanks to the trailer and tv spots

Regardless of how it performs, it will matter little.

The USA will account for no more than 30% of its total gross.

Very nice overview. It wasn't as biased as a couple of others. You still are predicting quite high for it, though. I think a 30 million weekend will be hard to reach... a 19 million weekend seems more likely to me. I really want it to do good though.

I agree .. maybe not with the 30% but the fact that this will see most of its gross outside the states.

@loyal: did you catch the whale scene i posted in cinemania? its not the whole scene actually .. they did some cut ups .. and it still looks great!

Baba I actually expect more like 20%, but 30 is being safe.

As for its opening, I think he may be going high as well. I can't see it opening over 31, not with xXx in direct competition for it. They have been marketing it as an action adventure movie, similar to a national treasure. I think xxx will take the urban crowd while HH gets the older audience. I see it haveing lower weekend and good holds through the weekdays.

I origionally predicted 24 ... I think 19 may be TOO low ... I hope anyway.

The trailer makes it look like a really bad version of Men in Black. They even have the MIB theme music in the trailer.

It's funny that you mention MIB. Though I LOVED the trailer (one of smartest trailers in history), I can't shake Wild Wild West out of my mind every single time I watch the tv spots.

Damn Barry Sonnenfeld :swear:

the second trailer actually gave me the wild wild west feeling too actually.

loyal & bABA: the guy with stilts for legs probably has a lot to do with it.

Those mini crab legs. :???:

That's a *very* optimistic prediction, but we'll see.

I don't think it is a 'very' optimistic prediction. I just think it is on the high end of the realistic realm of possibility. An opening north of 40 just won't happen, and anything north of 30 would be a big sucess.

While I think the safest bet would be around 24-28, I applaud baba for doing the research, and deciding on what he thought it could do. Wait and see just how right he turns out to be, and if he is wrong .. point and laugh.