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 The Pursuit of Happyness $140 Million+ Club 
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Begging Naked
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Post The Pursuit of Happyness $140 Million+ Club
Personally, I feel that a B.O. club should be something DARING and UNIQUE, something that takes actual guts to join, like the Superman Returns Under $200M club (Well, that was pretty obvious near the release date, but many, many more strill didn't know better). I hope - nay, I KNOW - this'll pay off like that so me and my members LAUGH IN YOUR FACES, DOUBTERS.

Now, the biggest problem people seem to have with this doing well is that Smith last two attempts at Drama weren't too successful (The Legend of Bagger Vance and Ali). However, the main problem with Bagger Vance was that Smith had what was obviously a supporting role, and it was a period piece, seriosuly slimming down the teen appeal. Ali was an interesting case. It had everything going for it (Great release date, great marketing, big star, potential oscar glory) and against it (Long running time, R rating, that its a boxing movie), yet it still managed to pull of the biggest Christmas opening. . .then completely stumble, finshing with only $58M and being pulled out of theaters after 7 weeks (A feat that should be held only by video game adaptations and crappy movies, not Oscar nominees). I think a combo of a chuck of its audience being cut out and mediocre WOM ( didn't help.

TPOH, meanwhile, seems to be a lot more appealing. Smith is front and center, plays a sympathetic character in a feel good movie at Christmas time. Competition shouldn't bad, as most of the big movies will have faded by then (Happy Feet, Casino Royale), and the only other releases are Eragon (Being very much dumped by Fox right now, don't deny it) and The Blood Diamond (Audiences may like Leo, but their love for him is outweighed by their distaste for anything depressing about Africa). And while the onslaight over Christmas weekend is pretty strong (A Night at the Museum, Charlotte's Web), it should thrive, still being a good choice for adults wanting something dramatic and teens wanting to see Smith. Also, SMith is appearently building momentum for a nomination, according to David Poland and Kris Tapley.

As for my predictions:

Opening: 23.5
Total: 138.4 (5.89)

Members ($125M):

Sun Ra
alex young
Libs
Dr. Lecter
DIB2
Speevy
Shack
Outatime
Gunslinger
Amer
The_Game_1
Gullimont-Kyro

$140M:

Me
Will Smith
Sony Pictures Executives
BJ
Snrub

C'mon, ya know you wanna. :happy:


Last edited by Jonathan on Sun Nov 12, 2006 8:08 pm, edited 3 times in total.



Wed Aug 16, 2006 11:33 pm
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Squee

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Sorry, but the "y" will turn off all movie goers. This won't even hit 50.

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Wed Aug 16, 2006 11:42 pm
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I'll join. 25/140.


Wed Aug 16, 2006 11:46 pm
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Definitely.


Wed Aug 16, 2006 11:59 pm
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Sbil
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For sure.

This has the exact same release date Jerry Maguire did in 1996. I would not be surprised to see a similiar performance.


Thu Aug 17, 2006 12:09 am
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Yeah, I'm in, though I really don't expect it to pass the mark by more than $10-15 million.

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Thu Aug 17, 2006 12:32 am
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I'm a doubter for now.


Thu Aug 17, 2006 12:33 am
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Begging Naked
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Bah, I thought people were saying this wouldn't pass $100M.

I shall consider upping this $25M tomorrow.


Thu Aug 17, 2006 12:40 am
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Im in

OW:23m

TOTAL:125.35

5.45 Multiplier

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Last edited by DIB2 on Thu Aug 17, 2006 4:35 pm, edited 1 time in total.



Thu Aug 17, 2006 3:40 pm
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It's a Will Smith movie, arguably the biggest actor in Hollywood right now. Sure it may not be his typical genre but I see no reason why this won't make 125 million. I think 150 million would be a more intersting club myself. I'm in for sure.


Thu Aug 17, 2006 3:58 pm
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Yeah, I'm in for sure.

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Thu Aug 17, 2006 4:05 pm
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I cant see it getting more then Enemy of the State ( no matter if it had an R ratng ) it's not your typical Will Smith film, it wont have that teen audience. It'll need to have alot of appeal with the older crowd.

Will Smith is one of the biggest actors out there, but that doesnt mean everything he touches can turn into gold, he has his specific genre, which is comedies and action films. This is neither, thus I dont find it possible to end up making close or more then films like I,Robot or Bad Boys, with this film he has to appeal to a different demo. Looking at this thread, it'll probably end up being one of the most overpredicted films of Winter.

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Thu Aug 17, 2006 4:14 pm
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Definitely in.


Thu Aug 17, 2006 4:33 pm
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Pure Phase
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I'll definitely join. I see The Pursuit of Happyness opening with fantastic numbers and then becoming a W.O.M.-based box office monster. Will Smith + cute child + heartwrenching drama + heartwarming dramedy = mega hit.

Again, count me in. :smile:

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Thu Aug 17, 2006 7:19 pm
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Oh yeah definetely for sure. This will do great.

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Thu Aug 17, 2006 7:26 pm
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I'll join this group.


Thu Aug 17, 2006 7:51 pm
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je vois l'avenir
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sorry but people are way overpredicting this. I say 90m With a chance at 100m but no a lock for 125m, or even 100m


Thu Aug 17, 2006 7:53 pm
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Simply because of the Smith factor i'll join.

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Thu Aug 17, 2006 7:56 pm
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nah!, it will pass $100M for sure i just dont see $125M+


Thu Aug 17, 2006 8:16 pm
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I'm upping this another $15M. I'm getting insanely good vibes about this.

Opening: 23.8
Total: 146.2 (6.14)


Sun Nov 12, 2006 8:06 pm
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def. in

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Sun Nov 12, 2006 8:41 pm
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Count me in the $125m+ group.

Smith is coming off the huge Hitch which was not an action comedy and that bodes well for this. It seems like it could be an uplifting quality film and that would do well over Christmas.

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Sun Nov 12, 2006 9:06 pm
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Count me in. Buzz around here has been fantastic.

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Sun Nov 12, 2006 9:09 pm
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IM in

OW:23.4

TOTAL:141.8m

6.06 multiplier

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Sun Nov 12, 2006 9:26 pm
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Sbil
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I could see $120M+ but I'm not sure about $140M at this point.

But, as I said in this thread earlier, a performance somewhat echoing Jerry Maguire would not be surprising to me.


Sun Nov 12, 2006 9:34 pm
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