What are United 93's Oscar chances?
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Dr. Lecter
You must have big rats
Joined: Sat Oct 16, 2004 4:28 pm Posts: 92093 Location: Bonn, Germany
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da torri wrote: Dr. Lecter wrote: Expectations or not, when was the last time a "major" movie (i.e. that grossed over $30 million) did not get a single nom with such reviews? Can anyone give me an example? About a Boy Other major movies without a BP nom, but other noms (reviews at or over 94%): The Incredibles Wallace and Gromit: The Curse of the Were Rabbit March of the Penguins Hero Spider-Man 2 Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind Finding Nemo Catch Me If You Can Minority Report Monsters, Inc. Memento Chicken Run
I was refering to those who said it wouldn't get a single nom, though. At this point,. I see this as impossible. It will get nominated for something.
_________________The greatest thing on earth is to love and to be loved in return!
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Sun Apr 30, 2006 9:19 pm |
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Dr. Lecter
You must have big rats
Joined: Sat Oct 16, 2004 4:28 pm Posts: 92093 Location: Bonn, Germany
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loyalfromlondon wrote: School of Rock - 90%
2001
Spy Kids - 92%
2000
High Fidelity - 91%
I terminated those from your list that scored below 90% or grossed below $30 million. We are left with four films. The number of fresh reviews is not as much deciding as the average grade. Let's see...
School of Rock - 7.7/10
High Fidelity - 7.5/10
Spy Kids - 7.2/10
About a Boy, even - 7.8/10
United 93 - 8.3/10
Or let's check Metascore:
School of Rock - 82/100 (seven 100's)
High Fidelity - 79/100 (five 100's)
About a Boy - 75/100 (two 100's)
Spy Kids - 71/100 (zero 100's)
United 93 - 90/100 (18 100's)
THAT is what I meant by universal acclaim. This is not comparable. Loyal's arguments have been comfortably crushed
Bring on an example!
_________________The greatest thing on earth is to love and to be loved in return!
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Sun Apr 30, 2006 9:29 pm |
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Anonymous
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Best Actor - 0% chance
Best Actress - 0% chance
Best Supporting Actor - 0% chance
Best Supporting Actress - 0% chance
Best Song - 0% chance
Best Sound - 0% chance
Best Sound Effects Editing - 0% chance
Best Art Direction - 0% chance
Best Costume Design - 0% chance
Best Visual Effects - 0% chance
Best Makeup - 0% chance
That leaves
Best Score
Best Film Editing
Best Original Screenplay
Best Cinematography
Best Director
Best Picture
Since 1980
Only about 50% of BP nominees have no nominations for Best Cinematography. 56% for BD.
You have less than a 25% of getting a BP nomination without a Best Director nomination.
63% of Best Editing nominees also have BP nominations. 57% for Best Director nominees.
Leaving us Best Original Screenplay and Best Score. Neither particularly strong.
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Sun Apr 30, 2006 9:42 pm |
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Anonymous
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Dr. Lecter wrote: THAT is what I meant by universal acclaim. This is not comparable. Loyal's arguments have been comfortably crushed Bring on an example!
Damn you Lect, damn you to hell.
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Sun Apr 30, 2006 9:45 pm |
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Dr. Lecter
You must have big rats
Joined: Sat Oct 16, 2004 4:28 pm Posts: 92093 Location: Bonn, Germany
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loyalfromlondon wrote: Best Actor - 0% chance Best Actress - 0% chance Best Supporting Actor - 0% chance Best Supporting Actress - 0% chance Best Song - 0% chance Best Sound - 0% chance Best Sound Effects Editing - 0% chance Best Art Direction - 0% chance Best Costume Design - 0% chance Best Visual Effects - 0% chance Best Makeup - 0% chance
That leaves
Best Score Best Film Editing Best Original Screenplay Best Cinematography Best Director Best Picture
Since 1980
Only about 50% of BP nominees have no nominations for Best Cinematography. 56% for BD.
You have less than a 25% of getting a BP nomination without a Best Director nomination.
63% of Best Editing nominees also have BP nominations. 57% for Best Director nominees.
Leaving us Best Original Screenplay and Best Score. Neither particularly strong.
I think after Crash's win last year, statistics of the past are not bringing us very far, eh...
Oh and just hypothetically...it could grab noms in Cinematography AND Direction AND Editing AND Picture
_________________The greatest thing on earth is to love and to be loved in return!
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Sun Apr 30, 2006 9:50 pm |
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Anonymous
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The Crash argument doesnt hold much water in this debate. Stupid Paul was just nominated the year before, fucker was hot. And for two of Crash's six nominations, United 93 literally has zero chance in.
There's no way United 93 would be nominated in Cinematography AND Direction AND Editing AND Picture. Hypothetically or not.
Is it possible for United 93 to get a token Editing nom? I guess. I wouldn't bet on it though.
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Sun Apr 30, 2006 9:59 pm |
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Dr. Lecter
You must have big rats
Joined: Sat Oct 16, 2004 4:28 pm Posts: 92093 Location: Bonn, Germany
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As Sherlock Holmes has said: "Once you have eliminated the impossible (in this case U93 not being nominated at all), the improbable, however unlikely it is, must be true"
_________________The greatest thing on earth is to love and to be loved in return!
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Sun Apr 30, 2006 10:07 pm |
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Anonymous
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I can already see the title of my next article...
United 93's Oscar Chances: Flight of Fancy
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Sun Apr 30, 2006 10:10 pm |
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Rod
Extra on the Ordinary
Joined: Mon Oct 11, 2004 8:50 pm Posts: 12821
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A best director nomination maybe,
_________________Best Actress 2008
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Sun Apr 30, 2006 11:12 pm |
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xiayun
Extraordinary
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 3:41 pm Posts: 25109 Location: San Mateo, CA
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It'll get at least one nomination; I gaurantee that right now.
Regardless what happens the remaining of the year, it has assured a place in a ton of critics' top 10 lists, especially those who don't give out many 4 stars each year (unlike Ebert). It also has virtually reserved a spot in BFCA's top 10 films of the year with a score of 95. Yes, its guild supports will probably be weak, but it won't be "forgotten" by december as some claimed because of the critic supports it will get. Critics alone can't push a film to a BP win, or even major nods, as we have seen with A History of Violence and others in the past years, but they can keep a film in play. And once the name gets repeated enough, it will find a nomination somewhere. The opening box office is not a detriment, as its PTA is very much on par with a film like The Constant Gardener, and I'm pretty sure it'll gross at least $40 million at the end.
_________________Recent watched movies: American Hustle - B+ Inside Llewyn Davis - B Before Midnight - A 12 Years a Slave - A- The Hunger Games: Catching Fire - A- My thoughts on box office
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Mon May 01, 2006 2:21 am |
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movies35
Forum General
Joined: Thu Nov 11, 2004 1:53 pm Posts: 8626 Location: Syracuse, NY
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I don't know how the chances will be. I don't think it will get a Best Picture nominee, but hopefully it will get a nominee for Best Director and Best Sound.
_________________ Top 10 Films of 2016
1. La La Land 2. Other People 3. Nocturnal Animals 4. Swiss Army Man 5. Manchester by the Sea 6. The Edge of Seventeen 7. Sing Street 8. Indignation 9. The Lobster 10. Hell or High Water
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Mon May 01, 2006 2:31 pm |
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MovieDude
Where will you be?
Joined: Tue Dec 21, 2004 4:50 am Posts: 11675
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I think it could go way past 40 million. The incredible WOM and hype it generated really makes me think Universal could give it a big theater push or too. If so, I don't see why it couldn't stay above 9 or 10 million, if it doesn't increase. It's first run (I bet it could make more with a re-release around Oscar time) could easily hit 50 million, with 60+ million not out of the question. And as said, it has WAY too much support from critics circles to be forgotten. All of the films listed have major drawbacks that United 93 didn't, be it being animated, indie-level hype/awareness/box office, or just being from a genre not meant for Oscars (One could argue a film as intense as United 93 isn't, but it's a serious drama, and Saving Private Ryan won BD and had a slew of nominations, and was considered one of the most intense films ever made). Eternal Sunshine is about the only exception, but Focus dropped the ball, and I think it was way too quirky for general audiences. Not to mention it was considered a comedy, the ultimate kiss of death.
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Mon May 01, 2006 5:03 pm |
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yearsago
Harry Potter and the Half Blood Prince
Joined: Sun Oct 17, 2004 11:20 pm Posts: 491 Location: seattle
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da torri wrote: Dr. Lecter wrote: Expectations or not, when was the last time a "major" movie (i.e. that grossed over $30 million) did not get a single nom with such reviews? Can anyone give me an example? About a Boy Other major movies without a BP nom, but other noms (reviews at or over 94%): The Incredibles Wallace and Gromit: The Curse of the Were Rabbit March of the Penguins Hero Spider-Man 2 Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind Finding Nemo Catch Me If You Can Minority Report Monsters, Inc. Memento Chicken Run
But what about the average scores? I think that is where United 93 really shines..average rating is 8.3/8.4 out of 100, 91 at metacritic
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Mon May 01, 2006 5:23 pm |
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dolcevita
Extraordinary
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 11:24 pm Posts: 16061 Location: The Damage Control Table
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da torri wrote: Dr. Lecter wrote: Expectations or not, when was the last time a "major" movie (i.e. that grossed over $30 million) did not get a single nom with such reviews? Can anyone give me an example? Hero
Thank god
Though Catch Me if You Can's oversight is a shame.
This won't get noms, in part due to its "realist" style, actually. Just a feeling.
But you know, its not like the Hoop Dreams, Thin Blue Lines, and Roger&Mes of the country didn't accomplish just as much and become more engrained in memory and film culture as, say, The Apartment.
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Mon May 01, 2006 7:10 pm |
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Dr. Lecter
You must have big rats
Joined: Sat Oct 16, 2004 4:28 pm Posts: 92093 Location: Bonn, Germany
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dolcevita wrote: da torri wrote: Dr. Lecter wrote: Expectations or not, when was the last time a "major" movie (i.e. that grossed over $30 million) did not get a single nom with such reviews? Can anyone give me an example? Hero Thank godThough Catch Me if You Can's oversight is a shame. This won't get noms, in part due to its "realist" style, actually. Just a feeling. But you know, its not like the Hoop Dreams, Thin Blue Lines, and Roger&Mes of the country didn't accomplish just as much and become more engrained in memory and film culture as, say, The Apartment.
Hero was not elegible, by the way.
_________________The greatest thing on earth is to love and to be loved in return!
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Mon May 01, 2006 7:14 pm |
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xiayun
Extraordinary
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 3:41 pm Posts: 25109 Location: San Mateo, CA
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Hero was ineligible because it was nominated for the foreign film oscar two years early. House of Flying Daggers would be a better comparable example, but it also managed to grab a nod, in cinematography.
_________________Recent watched movies: American Hustle - B+ Inside Llewyn Davis - B Before Midnight - A 12 Years a Slave - A- The Hunger Games: Catching Fire - A- My thoughts on box office
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Mon May 01, 2006 7:15 pm |
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Dr. Lecter
You must have big rats
Joined: Sat Oct 16, 2004 4:28 pm Posts: 92093 Location: Bonn, Germany
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And Daggers didn't had reviews as good as U93, not even close
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Mon May 01, 2006 7:16 pm |
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Rod
Extra on the Ordinary
Joined: Mon Oct 11, 2004 8:50 pm Posts: 12821
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Dr. Lecter wrote: And Daggers didn't had reviews as good as U93, not even close
It has a Metacritic SCore of 89.
I don't really even think it's guranteed to cross $30 million though, I think it's 99% sure...but there's the slight chance that being such a high profile film, and with the controversy sorrounding it it could have pretty steep drops.
Its room for expansion makes it almost impossible, but liek I said...slight chance.
_________________Best Actress 2008
Last edited by Rod on Wed May 03, 2006 5:08 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Tue May 02, 2006 2:14 am |
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yearsago
Harry Potter and the Half Blood Prince
Joined: Sun Oct 17, 2004 11:20 pm Posts: 491 Location: seattle
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Not that it means much but oscarwatch.com has United 93 as a 'most likely to suceed' in the Best Picture/director categories.
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Tue May 02, 2006 12:06 pm |
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Dr. Lecter
You must have big rats
Joined: Sat Oct 16, 2004 4:28 pm Posts: 92093 Location: Bonn, Germany
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Rod wrote: Dr. Lecter wrote: And Daggers didn't had reviews as good as U93, not even close It has a Metacritic SCore of 89.
But just 7.8/10 at RT.
_________________The greatest thing on earth is to love and to be loved in return!
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Tue May 02, 2006 2:17 pm |
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DP07
Homo Dperious
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 2:26 am Posts: 14460 Location: Everywhere
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#28 all-time at Yahoo. The Oscars don't really follow mainstream reaction, but last year Crash was easily the highest rated of the nominees. In 2004 FN and Ray were among the highest rated of the year, and got nominations that were not entirely expected. Plus, 2003 had ROTK, which is #1 all-time at Yahoo.
Last edited by DP07 on Tue May 02, 2006 8:18 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Tue May 02, 2006 8:14 pm |
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DP07
Homo Dperious
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 2:26 am Posts: 14460 Location: Everywhere
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da torri wrote: Dr. Lecter wrote: Expectations or not, when was the last time a "major" movie (i.e. that grossed over $30 million) did not get a single nom with such reviews? Can anyone give me an example? About a Boy Other major movies without a BP nom, but other noms (reviews at or over 94%): The Incredibles Wallace and Gromit: The Curse of the Were Rabbit March of the Penguins Hero Spider-Man 2 Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind Finding Nemo Catch Me If You Can Minority Report Monsters, Inc. Memento Chicken Run
Mostly popcorn movies, family films, and comedies.
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Tue May 02, 2006 8:17 pm |
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Chippy
KJ's Leading Pundit
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 4:45 pm Posts: 63026 Location: Tonight... YOU!
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I'll tell you how much of a chance it has:
It has as much of a chance as Crash did.
_________________trixster wrote: shut the fuck up zwackerm, you're out of your fucking element trixster wrote: chippy is correct
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Tue May 02, 2006 8:40 pm |
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cujoy
Speed Racer
Joined: Sat Mar 05, 2005 10:16 pm Posts: 164
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I have a couple of things to say on the topic:
First, I can't imagine The Academy (being The Academy) giving Best Picture to a relatively fluffy piece, such as Dream Girls over a movie with the gravitas of United 93.
They just won't do it. It makes them feel good to cast votes for movies with weighty subject matter. (Yes, they squibbed on Brokeback, which was apparently just a little too "meaty" for them )
So I think Dream Girls can kiss it's Oscar chances goodbye.
In fact, I will go so far as to say that at the moment United 93 has set a very high standard, and only a similarly weighty film will beat it.
So I'm looking forward to see what Eastwood's Flags of Our Fathers, which is about Iwo Jima, can do.
Also, the Hollywood Reporter has an article this morning: Rave Reviews put "United 93" on Awards Radar
Edited to add one other thing. It is very premature to say that United 93 has no chance at any acting nominations because we all know that films on Oscar rolls get extra consideration (Matt Dillon in Crash), and that unknowns get nomiated all the time, (Amy Adams in Junebug.) So I submit that if United 93 remains in contention and gets on a role, that supporting actor and/or actress will be in play possibly for:
Peter Herman as Jeremy Glick (Although he is unknown, his wife, Mariska Hargitay, recent Golden Globe winner, is not.)
Christian Clemenson as Thomas Burnett (Who stood out to me among the passengers)
Trish Gates as Sandra Bradshaw (who stood out among the women.)
Hey, I'm just saying the chance exists.
_________________ My Favorite Movies 2005: Crash, Sky High, Narnia
Beating a Drum for: DaVinci Code, Cars, Pirates of the Carribbean II
Last edited by cujoy on Wed May 03, 2006 11:36 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Wed May 03, 2006 11:01 am |
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Dr. Lecter
You must have big rats
Joined: Sat Oct 16, 2004 4:28 pm Posts: 92093 Location: Bonn, Germany
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cujoy wrote: I have a couple of things to say on the topic:
First, I can't imagine The Academy (being The Academy) giving Best Picture to a relatively fluffy piece, such as Dream Girls over a movie with the gravitas of United 93.
You mean, you forgot when they gave Chicago the Oscar over The Pianist?
_________________The greatest thing on earth is to love and to be loved in return!
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Wed May 03, 2006 11:13 am |
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