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 What are United 93's Oscar chances? 
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da torri wrote:
Dr. Lecter wrote:
Expectations or not, when was the last time a "major" movie (i.e. that grossed over $30 million) did not get a single nom with such reviews? Can anyone give me an example?

About a Boy

Other major movies without a BP nom, but other noms (reviews at or over 94%):
The Incredibles
Wallace and Gromit: The Curse of the Were Rabbit
March of the Penguins
Hero
Spider-Man 2
Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind
Finding Nemo
Catch Me If You Can
Minority Report
Monsters, Inc.
Memento
Chicken Run


I was refering to those who said it wouldn't get a single nom, though. At this point,. I see this as impossible. It will get nominated for something.

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Sun Apr 30, 2006 9:19 pm
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loyalfromlondon wrote:

School of Rock - 90%

2001

Spy Kids - 92%

2000

High Fidelity - 91%


I terminated those from your list that scored below 90% or grossed below $30 million. We are left with four films. The number of fresh reviews is not as much deciding as the average grade. Let's see...

School of Rock - 7.7/10
High Fidelity - 7.5/10
Spy Kids - 7.2/10
About a Boy, even - 7.8/10


United 93 - 8.3/10

Or let's check Metascore:

School of Rock - 82/100 (seven 100's)
High Fidelity - 79/100 (five 100's)
About a Boy - 75/100 (two 100's)
Spy Kids - 71/100 (zero 100's)

United 93 - 90/100 (18 100's)

THAT is what I meant by universal acclaim. This is not comparable. Loyal's arguments have been comfortably crushed :shades:

Bring on an example!

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Sun Apr 30, 2006 9:29 pm
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Best Actor - 0% chance
Best Actress - 0% chance
Best Supporting Actor - 0% chance
Best Supporting Actress - 0% chance
Best Song - 0% chance
Best Sound - 0% chance
Best Sound Effects Editing - 0% chance
Best Art Direction - 0% chance
Best Costume Design - 0% chance
Best Visual Effects - 0% chance
Best Makeup - 0% chance

That leaves

Best Score
Best Film Editing
Best Original Screenplay
Best Cinematography
Best Director
Best Picture

Since 1980

Only about 50% of BP nominees have no nominations for Best Cinematography. 56% for BD.

You have less than a 25% of getting a BP nomination without a Best Director nomination.

63% of Best Editing nominees also have BP nominations. 57% for Best Director nominees.

Leaving us Best Original Screenplay and Best Score. Neither particularly strong.


Sun Apr 30, 2006 9:42 pm
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Dr. Lecter wrote:
THAT is what I meant by universal acclaim. This is not comparable. Loyal's arguments have been comfortably crushed :shades:

Bring on an example!


Damn you Lect, damn you to hell. :happy:


Sun Apr 30, 2006 9:45 pm
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loyalfromlondon wrote:
Best Actor - 0% chance
Best Actress - 0% chance
Best Supporting Actor - 0% chance
Best Supporting Actress - 0% chance
Best Song - 0% chance
Best Sound - 0% chance
Best Sound Effects Editing - 0% chance
Best Art Direction - 0% chance
Best Costume Design - 0% chance
Best Visual Effects - 0% chance
Best Makeup - 0% chance

That leaves

Best Score
Best Film Editing
Best Original Screenplay
Best Cinematography
Best Director
Best Picture

Since 1980

Only about 50% of BP nominees have no nominations for Best Cinematography. 56% for BD.

You have less than a 25% of getting a BP nomination without a Best Director nomination.

63% of Best Editing nominees also have BP nominations. 57% for Best Director nominees.



Leaving us Best Original Screenplay and Best Score. Neither particularly strong.


I think after Crash's win last year, statistics of the past are not bringing us very far, eh...

Oh and just hypothetically...it could grab noms in Cinematography AND Direction AND Editing AND Picture :)

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Sun Apr 30, 2006 9:50 pm
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The Crash argument doesnt hold much water in this debate. Stupid Paul was just nominated the year before, fucker was hot. And for two of Crash's six nominations, United 93 literally has zero chance in.

There's no way United 93 would be nominated in Cinematography AND Direction AND Editing AND Picture. Hypothetically or not. :biggrin:

Is it possible for United 93 to get a token Editing nom? I guess. I wouldn't bet on it though.


Sun Apr 30, 2006 9:59 pm
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As Sherlock Holmes has said: "Once you have eliminated the impossible (in this case U93 not being nominated at all), the improbable, however unlikely it is, must be true"

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Sun Apr 30, 2006 10:07 pm
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I can already see the title of my next article...

United 93's Oscar Chances: Flight of Fancy


Sun Apr 30, 2006 10:10 pm
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A best director nomination maybe,

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Sun Apr 30, 2006 11:12 pm
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It'll get at least one nomination; I gaurantee that right now.

Regardless what happens the remaining of the year, it has assured a place in a ton of critics' top 10 lists, especially those who don't give out many 4 stars each year (unlike Ebert). It also has virtually reserved a spot in BFCA's top 10 films of the year with a score of 95. Yes, its guild supports will probably be weak, but it won't be "forgotten" by december as some claimed because of the critic supports it will get. Critics alone can't push a film to a BP win, or even major nods, as we have seen with A History of Violence and others in the past years, but they can keep a film in play. And once the name gets repeated enough, it will find a nomination somewhere. The opening box office is not a detriment, as its PTA is very much on par with a film like The Constant Gardener, and I'm pretty sure it'll gross at least $40 million at the end.

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Mon May 01, 2006 2:21 am
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I don't know how the chances will be. I don't think it will get a Best Picture nominee, but hopefully it will get a nominee for Best Director and Best Sound.

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Mon May 01, 2006 2:31 pm
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I think it could go way past 40 million. The incredible WOM and hype it generated really makes me think Universal could give it a big theater push or too. If so, I don't see why it couldn't stay above 9 or 10 million, if it doesn't increase. It's first run (I bet it could make more with a re-release around Oscar time) could easily hit 50 million, with 60+ million not out of the question. And as said, it has WAY too much support from critics circles to be forgotten. All of the films listed have major drawbacks that United 93 didn't, be it being animated, indie-level hype/awareness/box office, or just being from a genre not meant for Oscars (One could argue a film as intense as United 93 isn't, but it's a serious drama, and Saving Private Ryan won BD and had a slew of nominations, and was considered one of the most intense films ever made). Eternal Sunshine is about the only exception, but Focus dropped the ball, and I think it was way too quirky for general audiences. Not to mention it was considered a comedy, the ultimate kiss of death.


Mon May 01, 2006 5:03 pm
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da torri wrote:
Dr. Lecter wrote:
Expectations or not, when was the last time a "major" movie (i.e. that grossed over $30 million) did not get a single nom with such reviews? Can anyone give me an example?

About a Boy

Other major movies without a BP nom, but other noms (reviews at or over 94%):
The Incredibles
Wallace and Gromit: The Curse of the Were Rabbit
March of the Penguins
Hero
Spider-Man 2
Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind
Finding Nemo
Catch Me If You Can
Minority Report
Monsters, Inc.
Memento
Chicken Run


But what about the average scores? I think that is where United 93 really shines..average rating is 8.3/8.4 out of 100, 91 at metacritic

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Mon May 01, 2006 5:23 pm
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da torri wrote:
Dr. Lecter wrote:
Expectations or not, when was the last time a "major" movie (i.e. that grossed over $30 million) did not get a single nom with such reviews? Can anyone give me an example?

Hero


Thank god


Though Catch Me if You Can's oversight is a shame.

This won't get noms, in part due to its "realist" style, actually. Just a feeling.

But you know, its not like the Hoop Dreams, Thin Blue Lines, and Roger&Mes of the country didn't accomplish just as much and become more engrained in memory and film culture as, say, The Apartment.


Mon May 01, 2006 7:10 pm
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dolcevita wrote:
da torri wrote:
Dr. Lecter wrote:
Expectations or not, when was the last time a "major" movie (i.e. that grossed over $30 million) did not get a single nom with such reviews? Can anyone give me an example?

Hero


Thank god


Though Catch Me if You Can's oversight is a shame.

This won't get noms, in part due to its "realist" style, actually. Just a feeling.

But you know, its not like the Hoop Dreams, Thin Blue Lines, and Roger&Mes of the country didn't accomplish just as much and become more engrained in memory and film culture as, say, The Apartment.


Hero was not elegible, by the way.

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Mon May 01, 2006 7:14 pm
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Hero was ineligible because it was nominated for the foreign film oscar two years early. ;) House of Flying Daggers would be a better comparable example, but it also managed to grab a nod, in cinematography.

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Mon May 01, 2006 7:15 pm
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And Daggers didn't had reviews as good as U93, not even close :)

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Mon May 01, 2006 7:16 pm
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Dr. Lecter wrote:
And Daggers didn't had reviews as good as U93, not even close :)


It has a Metacritic SCore of 89.

I don't really even think it's guranteed to cross $30 million though, I think it's 99% sure...but there's the slight chance that being such a high profile film, and with the controversy sorrounding it it could have pretty steep drops.

Its room for expansion makes it almost impossible, but liek I said...slight chance.

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Last edited by Rod on Wed May 03, 2006 5:08 pm, edited 1 time in total.



Tue May 02, 2006 2:14 am
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Not that it means much but oscarwatch.com has United 93 as a 'most likely to suceed' in the Best Picture/director categories.

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Tue May 02, 2006 12:06 pm
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Rod wrote:
Dr. Lecter wrote:
And Daggers didn't had reviews as good as U93, not even close :)


It has a Metacritic SCore of 89.


But just 7.8/10 at RT.

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#28 all-time at Yahoo. The Oscars don't really follow mainstream reaction, but last year Crash was easily the highest rated of the nominees. In 2004 FN and Ray were among the highest rated of the year, and got nominations that were not entirely expected. Plus, 2003 had ROTK, which is #1 all-time at Yahoo.


Last edited by DP07 on Tue May 02, 2006 8:18 pm, edited 1 time in total.



Tue May 02, 2006 8:14 pm
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da torri wrote:
Dr. Lecter wrote:
Expectations or not, when was the last time a "major" movie (i.e. that grossed over $30 million) did not get a single nom with such reviews? Can anyone give me an example?

About a Boy

Other major movies without a BP nom, but other noms (reviews at or over 94%):
The Incredibles
Wallace and Gromit: The Curse of the Were Rabbit
March of the Penguins
Hero
Spider-Man 2
Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind
Finding Nemo
Catch Me If You Can
Minority Report
Monsters, Inc.
Memento
Chicken Run


Mostly popcorn movies, family films, and comedies.


Tue May 02, 2006 8:17 pm
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I'll tell you how much of a chance it has:

It has as much of a chance as Crash did.

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I have a couple of things to say on the topic:

First, I can't imagine The Academy (being The Academy) giving Best Picture to a relatively fluffy piece, such as Dream Girls over a movie with the gravitas of United 93.

They just won't do it. It makes them feel good to cast votes for movies with weighty subject matter. (Yes, they squibbed on Brokeback, which was apparently just a little too "meaty" for them ;) )

So I think Dream Girls can kiss it's Oscar chances goodbye.

In fact, I will go so far as to say that at the moment United 93 has set a very high standard, and only a similarly weighty film will beat it.

So I'm looking forward to see what Eastwood's Flags of Our Fathers, which is about Iwo Jima, can do.

Also, the Hollywood Reporter has an article this morning: Rave Reviews put "United 93" on Awards Radar

Edited to add one other thing. It is very premature to say that United 93 has no chance at any acting nominations because we all know that films on Oscar rolls get extra consideration (Matt Dillon in Crash), and that unknowns get nomiated all the time, (Amy Adams in Junebug.) So I submit that if United 93 remains in contention and gets on a role, that supporting actor and/or actress will be in play possibly for:

Peter Herman as Jeremy Glick (Although he is unknown, his wife, Mariska Hargitay, recent Golden Globe winner, is not.)
Christian Clemenson as Thomas Burnett (Who stood out to me among the passengers)
Trish Gates as Sandra Bradshaw (who stood out among the women.)

Hey, I'm just saying the chance exists. ;)

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Last edited by cujoy on Wed May 03, 2006 11:36 am, edited 1 time in total.



Wed May 03, 2006 11:01 am
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cujoy wrote:
I have a couple of things to say on the topic:

First, I can't imagine The Academy (being The Academy) giving Best Picture to a relatively fluffy piece, such as Dream Girls over a movie with the gravitas of United 93.



You mean, you forgot when they gave Chicago the Oscar over The Pianist?

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