Actually, if you look at the past. All films in the top ten dropped between 40-60%, so all drops will be big this weekend for holdovers.

When X2: X-Men United and Van Helsing opened, almost all films dropped over 40%.

Actually, this happend to every summer openr weekend in the past 4 years (except last year, when the summer opener was weak). So yes, this year, it will happen again.

1. Mission Impossible III: 65.7 million(16,200 PTA)
2. RV - 9.7 million(-41%)
3. Hoot - 7.5 million($2500 PTA)
4. United 93 - 6.0 million(-48%)
5. Stick It - 5.7 million(-47%)
6. Silent Hill - 4.6 million(-51%)
7. An American Haunting - 4.5 million($2700 PTA)
8. The Sentinel - 4.2 million(-46%)
9. Ice Age 2 - 3.9 million(-46%)
10. Akeelah and the Bee - 3.7 million(-38%)
11. Scary Movie 4 - 3.4 million(-56%)
12. The Wild - 2.7 million(-43%)

Ahh, summer. I love it.

1. Mission: Impossible 3 - $70.9 million ($17,500 PTA)
2. R.V. - $10.2 million (-38%)
3. Hoot - $8.3 million ($2,750 PTA)
4. United 93 - $6.3 million (-45%)
5. Stick It - $5.9 million (-45%)
6. Silent Hill - $4.5 million (-52%)
7. An American Haunting - $4.2 million ($2,500 PTA)
8. Akeelah and the Bee - $3.8 million (-37%)
9. Scary Movie 4 - $3.5 million (-55%)
10. The Sentinel - $3.5 million (-55%)

Great way to kick off the summer. I can hardly wait until the crappy spring releases are off the charts...

BJs Predictions:

1. Mission Impossible III - 85m
2. R.V. - 10.0m -38%
3. Hoot - 8.6m
4. United 93 - 6.5m -42%
5. Stick It - 6.0m -44%
6. An American Haunting - 6.0m
7. Silent Hill - 5.0m -45%
8. The Sentinel - 4.6m -40%
9. Ice Age: The Meltdown - 4.3m -41%
10. Scary Movie 4 - 4.2m -46%
11. Akeelah and the Bee - 4.0m -34%
12. The Wild - 2.5m -48%

I disagree. X2 opened two weeks after Easter weekend (the weekend that always has large drops). 2002 had Spiderman which is a whole different level of competition. In 2004, with Van Helsing, the drops were mostly normal for each film compared to other weeks except for maybe Man on Fire and the Punisher. Plus, if you check the daily numbers, the Friday increases when VH opened were not poor at all.

If the first film of summer has an effect, why didn't it show when The Mummy Returns, Gladiator, The Mummy, Deep Impact, etc. opened? Heck, The Mummy Returns had the second biggest opening ever at the time. Also, movies should have dropped more when X2 opened.

Furthermore, every film in release is aimed at a niche audience (as is increasingly the case in recent years). People are less likely to abandon the film made directly for their demographic then one trying to hit every possible audience.

Every movie might very well drop over 40% this weekend (besides the family films). But, not because of MI3, rather because they are all at least somewhat frontloaded.

My Derby Predictions.

MI3 - 65.4m
RV - 9.2m (-44%)
Hoot - 8.0m
United 93 - 7.0m (-39%)
Stick It - 5.0m (-54%)
Silent Hill - 4.5m (-52%)
Sentinel - 4.2m (-46%)
Akeelah and the Bee - 3.8m (-36%)
Scary Movie 4 - 3.5m (-55%)
Amercian Haunting - 3.0m

Top Ten - 113.6m

MI3 should be similar to War of the Worlds.
Hoot it getting lack of buzz and bad reviews.
Amercian Haunting is getting no marketing, no buzz, and horrible reviews. It flopped in the UK too.
The rest of the movies will get the 40%+ curse like many of the first weekend of summers (except for two, but it will be close).

I played it safe.

1. Mission: Impossible 3 - $71.2 million
2. RV - $10.6 million
3. Hoot - $8.7 million
4. United 93 - $7.2 million
5. Stick It - $5.2 million
6. Silent Hill - $4.7 million
7. The Sentinel - $4.3 million
8. An American Haunting - $3.9 million
9. Akeelah and the Bee - $3.8 million
10. Scary Movie 4 - $3.4 million

Final Predictions
1. Mission: Impossible III - $72.9 million (NEW)
2. RV - $9.8 million (-40%)
3. Hoot - $8.1 million (NEW)
4. United 93 - $6.7 million (-42%)
5. Stick It - $5.7 million (-47%)
6. Silent Hill - $4.7 million (-50%)
7. An American Haunting - $4.3 million (NEW)
8. The Sentinel - $4.3 million (-45%)
9. Scary Movie 4 - $3.7 million (-52%)
10. Akeelah and the Bee - $3.7 million (-38%)

1. Mission: Impossible III - 56.4m
2. RV - 10.5m
3. United 93 - 6.9m
4. Hoot - 6.1m
5. Stick It - 5.3m
6. Silent Hill - 5.0m
7. The Sentinel - 4.5m
8. Scary Movie 4 - 4.2m
9. An American Haunting - 3.8m
10. Akeelah and the Bee - 3.8m

1. Mission Impossible 3....65
2. R.V............................9.9
3. Hoot..........................7.5
4. United 93...................6.7
5. Stick It......................5.2
6. Silent Hill...................4.6
7. The Sentinel...............4.2
8. An American Haunting.3.9
9. Akeelah and the Bee...3.6
10. Scary Movie 4...........3.5

Mission: Impossible 3 - 74.0
RV - 9.8
Hoot - 6.8
United 93 R - 6.7
Stick It - 5.8
American Haunting - 4.1
Silent Hill - 4.0
The Sentinel - 3.8
Akeelah and the Bee - 3.6
Scary Movie 4 - 3.3

[quote="Scott V."]My Derby Predictions.

MI3 - 65.4m


MI3 should be similar to War of the Worlds.quote]


THE ONLY THING... WAR OF THE WORLDS OPENED ON WED. It had two days before the weekend. This opens Fri.

1. Mission: Impossible III - 65.0m
2. RV - 10.0m
3. United 93 - 7.0m
4. Hoot - 6.5m
5. Stick It - 5.0m
6. Silent Hill - 4.8m
7. The Sentinel - 4.3m
8. An American Haunting - 4.0m
9. Scary Movie 4 - 3.7m
10. Akeelah and the Bee - 3.6m

The winning score this weekend could be above 96% unless something surprises. Everybody's predictions are within close range.

1. Mission Imposible 3 - 65
2. RV - 9.8
3. Hoot - 7.2
4. United 93 - 7
5. Stict It - 5.2
6. Silent Hill - 4.3
7. The Sentinel - 4
8. American Haunting - 3.7
9. Akeelah - 3.7
10. Scary Movie - 3.5

Derby Predictions:

Mission: Impossible 3 - $70.0 million
RV - $9.2 million
United 93 - $7.1 million
Hoot - $6.4 million
Stick It - $5.0 million
Silent Hill - $4.6 million
The Sentinel - $4.0 million
An American Haunting - $3.8 million
Scary Movie 4 - $3.7 million
Akeelah and the Bee - $3.6 million

PEACE, Mike.

Mission: Impossible III $58.1m
RV $10.3m
Hoot $10.2m
United 93 $6.2m
Stick It $5.4m
Silent Hill $4.5m
An American Haunting $4.5m
Scary Movie 4 $4m
The Sentinel $3.9m
Akeelah and the Bee $3.4m

BJ, I love ya.

And on the bright side, there is some movie remaining this summer that will blow away even the highest expectations.

final derby predictions

1. Mission: Impossible III $63.7 mill
2. RV $9.7 mill
3. Hoot $8.9 mill
4. United 93 $6.4 mill
5. Stick It $5.9 mill
6. Silent Hill $4.7 mill
7. An American Haunting $4.3 mill
8. Akeelah and the Bee $3.9 mill
9. The Sentinel $3.9 mill
10. Scary Movie 4 $3.7 mill

Eh, wish I had gone lower on MI3, it's been giving me the "underperformer" vibe since forever.

Hahaha.

Nice call on Hoot, xiayun.

So much for this...