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 Scores w/ projections 
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Indiana Jones IV

Joined: Sun Oct 24, 2004 11:58 am
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Location: Austin, TX
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82, blah

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Sat Apr 08, 2006 6:11 pm
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BJ's projection for The Benchwarmers is WAY too generous.

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Sat Apr 08, 2006 7:26 pm
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Killing With Kindness
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Dr. Lecter wrote:
BJ's projection for The Benchwarmers is WAY too generous.


I was checking out films that were similar, and a 40% saturday increase seemed reasonable, even at this time of year, it may have been a bit high :unsure:

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Sat Apr 08, 2006 8:07 pm
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Yeah, but not opening weekend, I think. Maybe later in the run.

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Sat Apr 08, 2006 8:09 pm
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The Dark Knight
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Posts: 763
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[table]
[row color=#1d378e]Rank
[col]Film
[col]Predicted
[col]Actual
[col]Accuracy
[row color=#e7edf6] 1
[col]Ice Age: The Meldown
[col]39.90
[col]32.80
[col color=#fefdd6]78.35%
[row color=#d6e8fe] 2
[col]The Benchwarmers
[col]17.50
[col]21.40
[col color=#fefbb9]81.78%
[row color=#e7edf6] 3
[col]Take the Lead
[col]13.50
[col]13.00
[col color=#fefdd6]96.15%
[row color=#d6e8fe] 2
[col]Inside Man
[col]9.90
[col]9.00
[col color=#fefbb9]90.00%
[row color=#e7edf6] 5
[col]Lucky Number Slevin
[col]6.00
[col]7.20
[col color=#fefdd6]83.33%
[row color=#d6e8fe] 6
[col]ATL
[col]5.20
[col]4.50
[col color=#fefbb9]84.44%
[row color=#e7edf6] 7
[col]Failure to Launch
[col]4.10
[col]4.10
[col color=#fefdd6]100.00%
[row color=#d6e8fe] 8
[col]V for Vendtta
[col]3.30
[col]3.40
[col color=#fefbb9]97.06%
[row color=#e7edf6] 8
[col]Phat Girlz
[col]3.00
[col]2.80
[col color=#fefdd6]92.86%
[row color=#d6e8fe] 10
[col]She's the Man
[col]2.60
[col]2.60
[col color=#fefbb9]100.00%
[/table]
[table]
[row color=#1d378e] Your Score =
[col color=#d4fbca]90.40
[/table]

Obviously She's the Man is way overprojected, but that will hurt everyone's score.

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My top 5 of '05:
1. Revenge of the Sith (A+)
2. Batman Begins (A)
3. Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire (A-)
4. The Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy (A-)
5. Sin City (A-)


Sat Apr 08, 2006 8:22 pm
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Killing With Kindness
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Post 
Dr. Lecter wrote:
Yeah, but not opening weekend, I think. Maybe later in the run.


most did 20%-45% increases on there opening wknd.

I guess I was a bit to generous :oops:

Between 18.9m-20m with a 15%-25% saturday increase.

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Sat Apr 08, 2006 8:24 pm
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That sounds more like it! :)

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Sat Apr 08, 2006 8:30 pm
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Post 
[table]
[row color=#1d378e]Rank
[col]Film
[col]Predicted
[col]Actual
[col]Accuracy
[row color=#e7edf6] 1
[col]Ice Age: The Meldown
[col]42.60
[col]32.80
[col color=#fefdd6]70.12%
[row color=#d6e8fe] 2
[col]The Benchwarmers
[col]16.50
[col]21.40
[col color=#fefbb9]77.10%
[row color=#e7edf6] 3
[col]Take the Lead
[col]14.90
[col]13.00
[col color=#fefdd6]85.38%
[row color=#d6e8fe] 2
[col]Inside Man
[col]9.60
[col]9.00
[col color=#fefbb9]93.33%
[row color=#e7edf6] 5
[col]Lucky Number Slevin
[col]6.00
[col]7.20
[col color=#fefdd6]83.33%
[row color=#d6e8fe] 6
[col]ATL
[col]6.20
[col]4.50
[col color=#fefbb9]62.22%
[row color=#e7edf6] 7
[col]Failure to Launch
[col]4.10
[col]4.10
[col color=#fefdd6]100.00%
[row color=#d6e8fe] 8
[col]V for Vendtta
[col]3.40
[col]3.40
[col color=#fefbb9]100.00%
[row color=#e7edf6] 8
[col]Phat Girlz
[col]4.30
[col]2.80
[col color=#fefdd6]46.43%
[row color=#d6e8fe] 10
[col]She's the Man
[col]2.80
[col]2.60
[col color=#fefbb9]92.31%
[/table]
[table]
[row color=#1d378e] Your Score =
[col color=#d4fbca]81.02
[/table]


Sat Apr 08, 2006 11:44 pm
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College Boy Z

Joined: Mon Oct 11, 2004 8:40 pm
Posts: 36662
Post 
[table][row]Movie[col]Actual[col]Prediction[col]Score[row]Ice Age: The Meltdown[col]$32,800,000 [col]$39,500,000 [col]79.57%[row]The Benchwarmers[col]$21,400,000 [col]$14,700,000 [col]68.69%[row]Take the Lead[col]$13,000,000 [col]$14,400,000 [col]89.23%[row]Inside Man[col]$9,000,000 [col]$9,300,000 [col]96.67%[row]Lucky Number Slevin[col]$7,200,000 [col]$6,100,000 [col]84.72%[row]ATL[col]$4,500,000 [col]$5,500,000 [col]77.78%[row]Phat Girlz[col]$2,800,000 [col]$2,600,000 [col]92.86%[row]Failure to Launch[col]$4,100,000 [col]$4,100,000 [col]100.00%[row]V for Vendetta[col]$3,400,000 [col]$3,500,000 [col]97.06%[row]She's the Man[col]$2,600,000 [col]$2,600,000 [col]100.00%[row]Overall[col]$100,800,000 [col]$102,300,000 [col]88.66%[/table]

And assuming that The Benchwarmers is overprojected and it makes around $20 million instead, I'll have 89.14%. Not bad after two straight months of doing awful.


Sat Apr 08, 2006 11:55 pm
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Artie the One-Man Party

Joined: Sat Sep 17, 2005 2:53 pm
Posts: 4631
Post 
Went down with estimates, but I think I still may be on top compared to everyone else who's posted here so far:
[table]
[row color=#1d378e]Rank
[col]Film
[col]Predicted
[col]Actual
[col]Accuracy
[row color=#e7edf6] 1
[col]Ice Age: The Meldown
[col]41.10
[col]34.50
[col color=#fefdd6]80.87%
[row color=#d6e8fe] 2
[col]The Benchwarmers
[col]18.00
[col]20.50
[col color=#fefbb9]87.80%
[row color=#e7edf6] 3
[col]Take the Lead
[col]15.00
[col]12.80
[col color=#fefdd6]82.81%
[row color=#d6e8fe] 2
[col]Inside Man
[col]9.40
[col]9.20
[col color=#fefbb9]97.83%
[row color=#e7edf6] 5
[col]Lucky Number Slevin
[col]7.20
[col]7.10
[col color=#fefdd6]98.59%
[row color=#d6e8fe] 6
[col]ATL
[col]4.70
[col]3.80
[col color=#fefbb9]76.32%
[row color=#e7edf6] 7
[col]Failure to Launch
[col]3.90
[col]4.10
[col color=#fefdd6]95.12%
[row color=#d6e8fe] 8
[col]V for Vendtta
[col]3.40
[col]3.40
[col color=#fefbb9]100.00%
[row color=#e7edf6] 8
[col]Phat Girlz
[col]3.00
[col]3.10
[col color=#fefdd6]96.77%
[row color=#d6e8fe] 10
[col]She's the Man
[col]2.40
[col]2.10
[col color=#fefbb9]85.71%
[/table]
[table]
[row color=#1d378e] Your Score =
[col color=#d4fbca]90.18
[/table]

[url=http://www.worldofkj.com/tools/Calculator/index.php


Sun Apr 09, 2006 12:59 pm
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Speed Racer

Joined: Thu Dec 29, 2005 9:16 pm
Posts: 192
Post 
Ice Age: The Meldown - (41.70 / 34.50) -- Accuracy: 79.13%
The Benchwarmers - (17.60 / 20.50) -- Accuracy: 85.85%
Take the Lead - (7.90 / 12.70) -- Accuracy: 62.20%
Inside Man - (9.50 / 9.10) -- Accuracy: 95.60%
Lucky Number Slevin - (3.90 / 7.10) -- Accuracy: 54.93%
ATL - (5.30 / 3.70) -- Accuracy: 56.76%
Failure to Launch - (4.00 / 4.10) -- Accuracy: 97.56%
V for Vendtta - (3.50 / 3.30) -- Accuracy: 93.94%
Phat Girlz - (2.70 / 3.10) -- Accuracy: 87.10%
She's the Man - (2.70 / 2.10) -- Accuracy: 71.43%

OVERALL ESTIMATE ACCURACY: 78.45%

Calculate your score

God I did horrible.

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Sun Apr 09, 2006 1:02 pm
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College Boy Z

Joined: Mon Oct 11, 2004 8:40 pm
Posts: 36662
Post 
84.08%. I liked yesterday's score better.


Sun Apr 09, 2006 1:04 pm
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King Albert!
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84.78%, but big drop from projections, but still acceptable compared to most other people's score.

Oh and Frenchman, I think you will win for sure. I think this score of my should get myself and Zing in the top 20, don't you think.

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Sun Apr 09, 2006 1:19 pm
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College Boy Z

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It might, considering the derby average is probably quite low...


Sun Apr 09, 2006 1:21 pm
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Speed Racer

Joined: Tue Oct 19, 2004 12:32 am
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Location: Russia , Moscow
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86.43 %


Sun Apr 09, 2006 1:28 pm
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Artie the One-Man Party

Joined: Sat Sep 17, 2005 2:53 pm
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Post 
Scott V. wrote:
84.78%, but big drop from projections, but still acceptable compared to most other people's score.

Oh and Frenchman, I think you will win for sure. I think this score of my should get myself and Zing in the top 20, don't you think.

You and Zing are locks for top 20 I think, but I'm not going to go out and say I think I've won, seeing there's been like three other weeks where I thought I had definitely won after estimates and some nobody had a great score...I think I'd be a lock to win if I had changed my prediction for Benchwarmers to 20 million in time (I really meant to)


Sun Apr 09, 2006 1:29 pm
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Artie the One-Man Party

Joined: Sat Sep 17, 2005 2:53 pm
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Post 
Magnus101 wrote:
Accuracy: 83.48%

About 1.5% drop from projections. Hopefully it may bounce from actuals. Still, probably should crack top 100.

Try top 50.


Sun Apr 09, 2006 1:29 pm
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Killing With Kindness
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Location: Anchorage,Alaska
Post 
[table]
[row color=#1d378e]Rank
[col]Film
[col]Predicted
[col]Actual
[col]Accuracy
[row color=#e7edf6] 1
[col]Ice Age: The Meltdown
[col]40.60
[col]34.50
[col color=#fefdd6]82.32%
[row color=#d6e8fe] 2
[col]The Benchwarmers
[col]15.40
[col]20.50
[col color=#fefbb9]75.12%
[row color=#e7edf6] 3
[col]Take the Lead
[col]16.50
[col]12.80
[col color=#fefdd6]71.09%
[row color=#d6e8fe] 2
[col]Inside Man
[col]9.10
[col]9.20
[col color=#fefbb9]98.91%
[row color=#e7edf6] 5
[col]Lucky Number Slevin
[col]5.60
[col]7.10
[col color=#fefdd6]78.87%
[row color=#d6e8fe] 6
[col]Failure to Launch
[col]4.10
[col]4.10
[col color=#fefbb9]100.00%
[row color=#e7edf6] 7
[col]ATL
[col]5.00
[col]3.80
[col color=#fefdd6]68.42%
[row color=#d6e8fe] 8
[col]V for Vendetta
[col]3.50
[col]3.40
[col color=#fefbb9]97.06%
[row color=#e7edf6] 8
[col]Phat Girlz
[col]3.50
[col]3.10
[col color=#fefdd6]87.10%
[row color=#d6e8fe] 10
[col]She's the Man
[col]2.60
[col]2.10
[col color=#fefbb9]76.19%
[/table]
[table]
[row color=#1d378e] Your Score =
[col color=#d4fbca]83.51
[/table]

Calculate your score

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Sun Apr 09, 2006 1:30 pm
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85.83%


Sun Apr 09, 2006 1:39 pm
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The Dark Knight
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Post 
[table]
[row color=#1d378e]Rank
[col]Film
[col]Predicted
[col]Actual
[col]Accuracy
[row color=#e7edf6] 1
[col]Ice Age: The Meltdown
[col]39.90
[col]34.50
[col color=#fefdd6]84.35%
[row color=#d6e8fe] 2
[col]The Benchwarmers
[col]17.50
[col]20.50
[col color=#fefbb9]85.37%
[row color=#e7edf6] 3
[col]Take the Lead
[col]13.50
[col]12.80
[col color=#fefdd6]94.53%
[row color=#d6e8fe] 2
[col]Inside Man
[col]9.90
[col]9.20
[col color=#fefbb9]92.39%
[row color=#e7edf6] 5
[col]Lucky Number Slevin
[col]6.00
[col]7.10
[col color=#fefdd6]84.51%
[row color=#d6e8fe] 6
[col]Failure to Launch
[col]4.10
[col]4.10
[col color=#fefbb9]100.00%
[row color=#e7edf6] 7
[col]ATL
[col]5.20
[col]3.80
[col color=#fefdd6]63.16%
[row color=#d6e8fe] 8
[col]V for Vendetta
[col]3.30
[col]3.40
[col color=#fefbb9]97.06%
[row color=#e7edf6] 8
[col]Phat Girlz
[col]3.00
[col]3.10
[col color=#fefdd6]96.77%
[row color=#d6e8fe] 10
[col]She's the Man
[col]2.60
[col]2.10
[col color=#fefbb9]76.19%
[/table]
[table]
[row color=#1d378e] Your Score =
[col color=#d4fbca]87.43
[/table]

_________________
My top 5 of '05:
1. Revenge of the Sith (A+)
2. Batman Begins (A)
3. Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire (A-)
4. The Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy (A-)
5. Sin City (A-)


Sun Apr 09, 2006 1:42 pm
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So much has happened to me that I don’t understand
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Joined: Sun Jul 31, 2005 2:30 am
Posts: 32075
Post 
[table]
[row color=#1d378e]Rank
[col]Film
[col]Predicted
[col]Actual
[col]Accuracy
[row color=#e7edf6] 1
[col]Ice Age: The Meltdown
[col]40.80
[col]34.50
[col color=#fefdd6]81.74%
[row color=#d6e8fe] 2
[col]The Benchwarmers
[col]14.90
[col]20.50
[col color=#fefbb9]72.68%
[row color=#e7edf6] 3
[col]Take the Lead
[col]13.20
[col]12.80
[col color=#fefdd6]96.88%
[row color=#d6e8fe] 2
[col]Inside Man
[col]8.70
[col]9.20
[col color=#fefbb9]94.57%
[row color=#e7edf6] 5
[col]Lucky Number Slevin
[col]4.70
[col]7.10
[col color=#fefdd6]66.20%
[row color=#d6e8fe] 6
[col]Failure to Launch
[col]4.00
[col]4.10
[col color=#fefbb9]97.56%
[row color=#e7edf6] 7
[col]ATL
[col]5.90
[col]3.80
[col color=#fefdd6]44.74%
[row color=#d6e8fe] 8
[col]V for Vendetta
[col]2.90
[col]3.40
[col color=#fefbb9]85.29%
[row color=#e7edf6] 8
[col]Phat Girlz
[col]2.80
[col]3.10
[col color=#fefdd6]90.32%
[row color=#d6e8fe] 10
[col]She's the Man
[col]2.70
[col]2.10
[col color=#fefbb9]71.43%
[/table]
[table]
[row color=#1d378e] Your Score =
[col color=#d4fbca]80.14
[/table]

Calculate your score

Massive almost 5% drop from projections. I've had luck with my scores going up lately, so it had to come eventually I guess. Everything went the way I didn't want it to.


Sun Apr 09, 2006 1:51 pm
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loyalfromlondon
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Post 
[table]
[row color=#1d378e]Rank
[col]Film
[col]Predicted
[col]Actual
[col]Accuracy
[row color=#e7edf6] 1
[col]Ice Age: The Meltdown
[col]40.80
[col]34.50
[col color=#fefdd6]81.74%
[row color=#d6e8fe] 2
[col]The Benchwarmers
[col]14.70
[col]20.50
[col color=#fefbb9]71.71%
[row color=#e7edf6] 3
[col]Take the Lead
[col]13.50
[col]12.80
[col color=#fefdd6]94.53%
[row color=#d6e8fe] 2
[col]Inside Man
[col]10.00
[col]9.20
[col color=#fefbb9]91.30%
[row color=#e7edf6] 5
[col]Lucky Number Slevin
[col]5.40
[col]7.10
[col color=#fefdd6]76.06%
[row color=#d6e8fe] 6
[col]Failure to Launch
[col]4.20
[col]4.10
[col color=#fefbb9]97.56%
[row color=#e7edf6] 7
[col]ATL
[col]5.20
[col]3.80
[col color=#fefdd6]63.16%
[row color=#d6e8fe] 8
[col]V for Vendetta
[col]3.50
[col]3.40
[col color=#fefbb9]97.06%
[row color=#e7edf6] 8
[col]Phat Girlz
[col]3.20
[col]3.10
[col color=#fefdd6]96.77%
[row color=#d6e8fe] 10
[col]She's the Man
[col]2.70
[col]2.10
[col color=#fefbb9]71.43%
[/table]
[table]
[row color=#1d378e] Your Score =
[col color=#d4fbca]84.13
[/table]

ATL and She's the Man dropping huge from projections dropped my score over 2%, but I should still crack top 20, considering how bad the derby average is.

_________________
Magic Mike wrote:
zwackerm wrote:
If John Wick 2 even makes 30 million I will eat 1,000 shoes.


Same.


Algren wrote:
I don't think. I predict. ;)


Sun Apr 09, 2006 2:02 pm
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Full Fledged Member

Joined: Mon Oct 24, 2005 5:57 pm
Posts: 91
Post 
[table]
[row color=#1d378e]Rank
[col]Film
[col]Predicted
[col]Actual
[col]Accuracy
[row color=#e7edf6] 1
[col]Ice Age: The Meltdown
[col]39.00
[col]34.50
[col color=#fefdd6]86.96%
[row color=#d6e8fe] 2
[col]The Benchwarmers
[col]17.50
[col]20.50
[col color=#fefbb9]85.37%
[row color=#e7edf6] 3
[col]Take the Lead
[col]11.50
[col]12.80
[col color=#fefdd6]89.84%
[row color=#d6e8fe] 2
[col]Inside Man
[col]9.00
[col]9.20
[col color=#fefbb9]97.83%
[row color=#e7edf6] 5
[col]Lucky Number Slevin
[col]6.00
[col]7.10
[col color=#fefdd6]84.51%
[row color=#d6e8fe] 6
[col]Failure to Launch
[col]3.90
[col]4.10
[col color=#fefbb9]95.12%
[row color=#e7edf6] 7
[col]ATL
[col]5.10
[col]3.80
[col color=#fefdd6]65.79%
[row color=#d6e8fe] 8
[col]V for Vendetta
[col]3.20
[col]3.40
[col color=#fefbb9]94.12%
[row color=#e7edf6] 8
[col]Phat Girlz
[col]2.60
[col]3.10
[col color=#fefdd6]83.87%
[row color=#d6e8fe] 10
[col]She's the Man
[col]2.50
[col]2.10
[col color=#fefbb9]80.95%
[/table]
[table]
[row color=#1d378e] Your Score =
[col color=#d4fbca]86.44
[/table]

Dropped 3.5% from projections, may still be enough for Top 10

Calculate your score


Sun Apr 09, 2006 3:28 pm
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Speed Racer
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Joined: Thu Dec 08, 2005 9:30 pm
Posts: 188
Location: Dallas
Post 
84.98% with projections.

This could be my best derby ever in terms of ranking.


Sun Apr 09, 2006 3:40 pm
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Kiera Knightly is my lady!
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Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 1:18 pm
Posts: 8773
Location: New Mexico
Post 
Rank Film Predicted Estimate Est. Accuracy
1 Ice Age 39.4 32.8 79.88%
2 The Benchwarmers 12.0 21.4 56.07%
3 Take the Lead 6.5 13 50.00%
4 Inside Man 8.7 9 96.67%
5 Lucky Number Slevin 5.0 7.2 69.44%
6 ATL 6.5 4.5 55.56%
7 Failure to Launch 3.9 4.1 95.12%
8 V for Vendetta 3.3 3.4 97.06%
9 Phat Girlz 6.0 2.8 0.00%
10 She's the Man 2.4 2.6 92.31%

Average
OVERALL (estimate) 69.21%
New Release 58.51%
Still in Theater 73.80%


Dang I did bad this week!

_________________
Isn't it ironic that Hollywood mocks Gibson for drunk driving yet praises Polanski who molested a child? Or praises Edward Kenedy who killed someone while drunk driving?


Sun Apr 09, 2006 3:45 pm
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