Yikes. The Benchwarmers might do well after all. It's been on Moviefone ever since it entered the chart yesterday, which is impressive by itself. With that theater count, around $14-15 million this weekend.

Yeah, most likely.

It will probably squeak by Take the Lead (which has been advertised on American Idol like crazy, by the way) for #2.

Nice count for The Benchwarmers.

Expected for Phat Girlz which looks dreadful.

I wonder what Slevin and TTL will end up with?

I'll actually round up a million for Benchwarmers and mark it at $15-16m.

Yeah, bad for Phat Girlz. It will be below the tracking of $3m.

Meh, I'm still not that convinced with Benchwarmers. $4000 PTA for 12-13 million.

Wow. People are seriously underprdicting Take the Lead. Not one venture into the 20s?

Take the Lead will make at least 23 million.

I dont see the mass appeal with a movie like Take the Lead, it has appealing features for every demo, but I dont see anyone wanting to rush out to see it, should have good legs but just an okay opening around 10m-13m.

To be fair, Coach Carter, Friday Night Lights, Varsity Blues, etc. all had predictions around the same level. Not that Take the Lead will be a break out hit like those films (especially the first two) were, but I see it being underpredicted.

Oh yeah, and I'd thank Scary Movie 4's terrific TV spots for the big boost in tracking. It's so refreshing to see ads for a movie that are completely different from anything in the trailer, and at least as funny.

To be fair...baseball, basketball and football are bigger sellers at the box-office than...dancing?

I think Take the Lead will perform okay-ish, an opening around $14-15 million.

Now The Benchwarmers should open pretty well. It is getting lots of screens, over 2,250 theatres and while none of the three leads is big, they are somewhat known to audiences. Plus it is the only new comedy in the marketplace and it has a sports theme. I see it doing $18-20 million opening weekend.

Save the Last Dance outperformed almost every sports film to open in the past six years (Remember the Titans being the only exception that comes to mind).

Take the Lead is more like Shall We Dance then Save the Last Dance, but more aimed towards teens ( I guess even though I dont see why a teen would wanna see it ) Save the Last Dance had way more things going for it back when it came out then Take the Lead, the big one being some fantastic marketing.

TAKE THE LEAD could make around $20M.
I think BENCHWARMERS could take $17M.

I think these 2 openers have potential to do this much, but they also have potential to make around $14M.

My Derby Entry:

1. Ice Age: The Meltdown - 40.5
2. The Benchwarmers - 15.0
3. Take the Lead - 12.5
4. Inside Man - 7.8
5. Lucky Number Slevin - 6.0
6. ATL - 5.7
7. V for Vendetta - 3.2
8. Failure to Launch - 3.0
9. Phat Girlz - 2.8
10. She's the Man - 2.5

Take the Lead is still on neither Moviefone or Yahoo Buzz Chart. Not good.

Yeah, I'm gonna say Take the Lead's audience of mostly adult women (although it should also appeal to teens and young adults) doesn't use either of those as much as The Benchwarmers' demo does, especially considering that ad plastered on MovieFone.

Take the Lead did show up briefly last night.

1. Ice Age: The Meltdown - $41.8 mil
2. The Benchwarmers - 16.3 mil
3. Lucky Number Slevin - $11.1 mil
4. Take the Lead - $10.8 mil
5. Inside Man - $8.9 mil
6. ATL - $5.6 mil
7. Failure to Launch - $4.5 mil
8. V for Vendetta - $3.6 mil
9. She's the Man - $3.0 mil
10. Phat Girlz - $2.9 mil

I may be WAY off on Slevin... but I've seen 20x more marketing for this than Take the Lead

Bad/Weird titles normally don't do well, and considering it has Sir Ben, I maintain my position that Slevin is more likely to underperform and overperform. It's the type of films that could've done well in limited release but will have trouble once it expands pass certain range, like the unfortunate situation with Kiss Kiss, Bang Bang.

Slevin reminds me of Running Scared. Low theater count (below 2000), decent cast, somewhat decent reviews, and being released on a crowded weekend.

Almost Final
1. Ice Age 2 - 41.5 million(-39%)
2. The Benchwarmers - 14.7 million($4500 PTA)
3. Take the Lead - 11.1 million($3700 PTA)
4. Inside Man - 8.8 million(-43%)
5. Lucky Number Slevin - 6.5 million($3600 PTA)
6. ATL - 5.9 million(-49%)
7. Failure to Launch - 3.9(-39%)
8. V for Vendetta - 2.8 million(-55%)
9. She's the Man - 2.7 million(-38%)
10. Phat Girlz - 2.6 million($2500 PTA)

Gah, I'm less confident in this weekend than I've been for a long time. I couldn't use my "new strategy" that's been working wonderfully for me lately, and overall my head isn't clear on this one. I hope it'll be better when I finalize later tonight.

Anyone other then Paul Walker that we were suppose to know in Running Scared? Should do better then Running Scared, like double of what it did opening weekend, which means a whole 6m-7m

Final Predictions:

[table][row color=#FF0000]Movie[col color=#FF0000]Prediction[col color=#FF0000]% Change[row color=#FFFF99]Ice Age 2[col color=#CCFFFF]$ 42.0 million[col color=#FFFF99]-38.3%[row color=#FFFF99]Benchwarmers[col color=#CCFFFF]$ 15.5 million[col color=#FFFF99]NEW[row color=#FFFF99]Take the Lead[col color=#CCFFFF]$ 13.7 million[col color=#FFFF99]NEW[row color=#FFFF99]Inside Man[col color=#CCFFFF]$ 9.0 million[col color=#FFFF99]-41.7%[row color=#FFFF99]ATL[col color=#CCFFFF]$ 4.9 million[col color=#FFFF99]-57.6%[row color=#FFFF99]Lucky Number Slevin[col color=#CCFFFF]$ 4.3 million[col color=#FFFF99]NEW[row color=#FFFF99]Failure to Launch[col color=#CCFFFF]$ 4.0 million[col color=#FFFF99]-38.1%[row color=#FFFF99]Phat Girlz[col color=#CCFFFF]$ 3.8 million[col color=#FFFF99]NEW[row color=#FFFF99]V for Vendetta[col color=#CCFFFF]$ 3.8 million[col color=#FFFF99]-39.6%[row color=#FFFF99]She's the Man[col color=#CCFFFF]$ 2.7 million[col color=#FFFF99]-39.0%[/table]This table brought to you by Excel2BB Converter. Created by Krem for World of KJ

Slevin looks to involve mob based on commercials. They don't do too well anymore. And it looks retarded. Phat Girlz won't totally bomb. Benchwarmers will take the opener crown. Take the Lead will do well also.

1. Ice Age: The Meltdown - $40.8 million (-40%)
2. The Benchwarmers - $14.7 million ($4,500 PTA)
3. Take the Lead - $13.5 million ($4,500 PTA)
4. Inside Man - $10 million (-35%)
5. Lucky Number Slevin - $5.4 million ($3,000 PTA)
6. ATL - $5.2 million (-55%)
7. Failure to Launch - $4.2 million (-35%)
8. V for Vendetta - $3.5 million (-45%)
9. Phat Girlz - $3.2 million ($3,000 PTA)
10. She's the Man - $2.7 million (-40%)

It really bothers me that Benchwarmers is going to do 3x better than Slevin. It really does.

Everyone's still underpredicting Tak the Lead. I was in the four block (no kidding) line for the advanced screening on Tuesday. I didn't get in cause the theatre got full. People waited three and a half hours in advance. Its the longest line I've seen outside of the HP3 screening I once went. Its making well north of 20 million this weekend.

I'm turning my position around on Ice Age 2. Its weekday holds have been disappointing. Two years ago Scooby-Doo 2 increased 181.4% on its second Friday after an 81.4% Monday drop around the same time. The first Ice Age increased 200% during spring break time. This is also a concentrated spring break week for some schools, so I don't see a Friday increase of much higher than 200%, if at all, then it will need a 4.0 multiplier for a $40m weekend. I see it fall short of that.