The thing is that Shrek 3 opens two months before, and that where HP3 opened three weeks before school totally got out, HP5 would be right in the middle of summer.

Phoenix is in a better position than Azkaban was, as Phoenix is faaaar from the competition of Shrek 3 and Pirates of the Caribbean 3. It's positioned itself in July, where it's the biggest film. I think it'll cross $250 million, but it's not guaranteed.

Harry Potter's legs won't be very good, but its opening will be HUGE. It will live from the hype of the last book which will probably be released shortly before it or shortly after it. Moreover, the fourth film had very good WoM and decent legs for a 4th frontloaded film in the series. It also sold more DVDs than all other Harry Potter flicks. I could easily see it passing $110 million in the opning. The first Friday will be close to $45 million.

The competition will be there, just cause Summer 2007 is so crowded. In May, you have Spidey 3, Shrek 3, and Pirates 3, all which should be making at least $300 million. I expect one of them to move to July, probably Pirates 3. Then you've got all the smaller hits, like Evan Almighty, Fantastic Four 2, Transformers, and The Simpsons Movie. Those are all competition for Phoenix. It just doesn't fit in that summer. Whereas in the winter, there's nothing. Phoenix would do much better if it moved to November, away from all the competition, and where the HP films have done much better. There's no reason to keep it in the summer. None at all.

I think HP 5 is a lock for 300m. WOM was the best for the series so far, so it won't lose any fanbase. It can only go up.

I don't think so...

The summer competition will definitely hurt it. And if the next film isn't that good, it doesn't matter how good the WOM was on the last film. It won't make a difference.

HP5 as a book is also... hard to adapt. For a movie, Goblet of Fire's storyline is much more exciting and much more appealing to audiences. I don't think it'll clear 300 mil.

It will be so frontloaded that WOM won't really matter. For this type of franchise I think it primarily affects the next film. Well, for most franchises actually.

People were using the storyline as the reason Azkaban would reach 300m. Just as that wasn't a positive, I don't think this will be a negative.

Phoenix will be so frontloaded that it will have to open to like $130 million to clear $300 million. You think it will open that high?

Weekdays in July will be too high for the multiplier to be that low (2.3). Still, I think it can open with 120m.

Clerks II has been moved up a month from August 18 to July 21.

HP5 won't clear $300 million, too much frontloadness, due to the hype around the book. Even a $120 million opening won't guarantee it $300 million.

The final Harry Potter film, however, will clear $300 million.

Movie Title Dist. New Date Old Date
Little Miss Sunshine Fox Searchlight 7/26/06 7/28/06
Because I Said So Universal 2/2/07 New
The Last Legion (a.k.a. Enchanted Sword) MGM 1/19/07 1/26/07
Clerks II: The Passion of the Clerks MGM 7/21/06 8/18/06
Stormbreaker MGM 10/6/06 9/1/06
Balls of Fury Rogue Pictures 1/26/07 New
The Ground Truth Focus Features 9/15/06 New
Are We Done Yet? Sony / Revolution 4/6/07 1/12/07
Across the Universe (a.k.a. Untitled Julie Taymor) Sony 2007 11/3/06
Next Sony 9/28/07 2007
Brothers Solomon Sony 4/20/07 New
Premonition Sony 3/9/07 New
Steppin' Sony / Screen Gems 1/12/07 New
Running with Scissors Sony 10/20/06 10/27/06

Surprising date for such a high profile movie, but well, there isn't any room in the summer.

Fantastic Four 2 moves to June 15, and Used Guys is now looking for a release date.

ff2=new cradle of life.

itll be an instant bomb.

I think that move actually saves FF4. It would have been hurt by Transformers and Potter a week later in its original spot.

This way it comes a week after a weak weekend (0ceans 13 wont be that big), three weeks after Pirates and a week before another weak weekend (The Brave and Stardust).

This is also great for Transformers!! This will be MEGA huge!

Though I agree Magnus - 2008 would be better for FF4. With a good director it could be really something.

As for Used Guys - a shame - i thought it would have been BIG in June. If it came out a week after FF4 - it still could make alot of $$. However, a December release date probably is best for it.

I think Evan Almighty should move up a week to the week after FF4. That spreads FF4, Ratatouillie, Evan and Transformers apart.

No surprise, either Transformers or FF4 were bound to move, and the weaker one blinked first.

This is summer 07 as it stands now. Ive replaced the dates with Week Numbers...(the films on Weeks 9 and 10 are only 5 days apart). So far there are only 3 empty slots. I still think films like Star Dust and The Brave One should counter the big May blockbusters.

1 Spiderman 2
2
3 Shrek the Third
4 Pirates of the Carribean
5
6 Ocean's 13
Surf's Up
7 Fantastic Four 2
8 The Brave One
Stardust
9 Evan Almighty
Ratatouillie
10 Transformers
11 Harry Potter and the Order of the Pheonix
12 I Now Pronounce You Chuck and Larry
Journey 3D
13 10,000 BC
The Simpsons Movie
14 The Bourne Ultimatum
Underdog
15 Alien Vs Prediter
Rush Hour 3
Nancy Drew
16 Knocked Up
Disturbia
17

Bench: Used Guys, I am Legend

Summer 2007 is going to be massive.


Alien Vs Predator....yuck.

I need to start saving for Summer 2007 now lest I go bankrupt.

Prince Caspian is officially pushed back to Summer 2008.

hhmmm - that really opens up December. That was going to be the highlight. Maybe Pirates of the Carribean 3 would be better off in that December spot - thus freeing up the summer a bit.