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 Harry Potter & the Goblet of Fire - $290,013,036 
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Post Harry Potter & the Goblet of Fire - $290,013,036
Let's face it: the opening weekends this year so far have been poor. We are near the middle of July and Fantastic Four is this year's 4th opener above $50 million. Last year we already had six $50+ million openers at this point (The Passion, Van Helsing, Shrek 2, The Day after Tomorrow, Harry Potter and the Prisoner of Azkaban and Spider-Man 2) with another three still to come in August. It doesn't look to me like any other July release this year will open to over $50 million (maybe with the exception of The Island if marketing REALLY picks up).

However, we did have one record-breaking opening this year so far - Star Wars: Revenge of the Sith. It could beat out Shrek 2 for the 2nd biggest opening weekend ever. Other than that, most opening weekends haven't been too impressing.

Nonetheless, I expect one more huge opening weekend this year. That will be Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire. If there is something that is consistent about this franchise then that is the PTA in the opening weekends of the Harry Potter flicks. Let's take a look at the previous efforts:

Harry Potter and the Sorceror's Stone opened to $90,294,621 in 3,672 theatres with a PTA of $24,590. By the time it opened got the biggest opening weekend of all-time with ease. Right now it's #6.

Harry Potter and the Chamber of Secrets opened to $88,357,488 in 3,682 theatres with a PTA of $23,997. By the time of its opening it was the 3rd biggest opening of all time. It holds the 7th spot on that list.

Harry Potter and the Prizoner of Azkaban opened last summer with $93,687,367 in an impressive 3,855 theatres and with a PTA of $24,302. By the time of its opening it became the 3rd biggest opener of all time. It was knocked down one notch when ROTS opened.

It is very impressive that out of the seven biggest openings of all time, three are Harry Potter movies. This fact sometimes goes by unnoticed. The total grosses of the installments may vary, but their opening weekend PTA's are extremely consistent as you can see, always around $24,000-24,500.

I firmly believe that the fourth movie will get closer to a $100 million opening than the previous three efforts and it will take over the 4th spot of the all-time biggest openings from Harry Potter 3.

Harry Potter and the Prisoner of Azkaban opened last year to over $93 million, despite having direct competition from Shrek 2 which still made over $30 million that weekend. This year, GoF's only direct competitor will be Chicken Little in its 3rd week and if Madagascar, Shark Tale and Robots are any indicators, it won't even be making $25 million that weekend.

Moreover, I expct this one to open in well over 3,900 considering the overly saturated marketplace nowadays. So, et's say, it opens in 3,900 theatres and gets an opening weekend PTA of $24,000, it'll open to $93.6 million, around the same as the fourth movie. However, I expect the theatre count to be somewhat higher, maybe around 3,950-4,000 theatres and also a somewhat better PTA. This year, the Harry Potter craze will be at its highest, considering the new novel in the series is being released just this summer. That will certainly add to the anticipation of the movie. Moreover, the third Harry Potter flick was probably also the most well-liked, so audiences will go out to see this one in storms.

So, all in all, I expect an opening weekend of around $96 million for this one and therefore the 4th biggest opening weekend of all time.

Anyone agrees?

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Last edited by Dr. Lecter on Thu Aug 24, 2006 4:27 am, edited 47 times in total.



Sun Jul 10, 2005 12:37 pm
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i don't think it will reach the opening of azkaban.
azkaban was eagerly anticipated as there had been a wait between the two movies. [2 and 3]
so people were eager to see the next film
this time i don't think that eagerness is there.

but then again what do i know?

i'm thinking an opening of around 70 m.

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Sun Jul 10, 2005 1:18 pm
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I'd give this one the advantage over Harry Potter and the Chamber of Secrets because the teaser looked really good and it's not a summer release date like The Prisoner of Azkaban was. But, higher than The Sorcerer's Stone? I doubt it.


Sun Jul 10, 2005 1:27 pm
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i'm lazy. could you provide me with names and grosses of movies opening over 89 million.


Sun Jul 10, 2005 1:30 pm
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bABA wrote:
i'm lazy. could you provide me with names and grosses of movies opening over 89 million.


I'm lazy as well, so here you go:

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/alltime/weekends/

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Sun Jul 10, 2005 1:43 pm
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newfoundglorysp wrote:
i don't think it will reach the opening of azkaban.
azkaban was eagerly anticipated as there had been a wait between the two movies. [2 and 3]
so people were eager to see the next film
this time i don't think that eagerness is there.

but then again what do i know?

i'm thinking an opening of around 70 m.


Hmm, there has been a wait between the second and the third movie of 19 months. The wait between the third and the fourth is 17 months. Not too much of a difference.

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Sun Jul 10, 2005 1:45 pm
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I'll give it 4th or 5th for now. will wait for more marketing before making a decision.


Sun Jul 10, 2005 1:46 pm
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Since everyone else is too lazy to post it - here you go.

1 Spider-Man $114,844,116
2 Star Wars: Episode III - Revenge of the Sith $108,435,841
3 Shrek 2 $108,037,878
4 Harry Potter and the Prisoner of Azkaban $93,687,367
5 The Matrix Reloaded $91,774,413
6 Harry Potter and the Sorcerer's Stone $90,294,621
7 Harry Potter and the Chamber of Secrets $88,357,488
8 Spider-Man 2 $88,156,227
9 X2: X-Men United $85,558,731
10 The Passion of the Christ $83,848,082


Sun Jul 10, 2005 1:47 pm
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I think the Goblet of Fire will be a more popular film among the mainstream audiences than Azkaban was. Right now I would agree that GOF will open in 3900-4000 theaters and make somewhere in the area of 95M opening weekend. The new book being released just 4 months before could really help it. There has been little marketing though, so hopefully a trailer will be attached to Charlie and the Chocolate Factory to help get an idea of what the GOF will look like.


Sun Jul 10, 2005 2:42 pm
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70 Million? For HP4 opening weekend? Thats as laughable as sayng Dukes of Hazzard would open to 70 million.

The hype machine for this baby is just starting. Come July 16th when the new book launches ... look out. Unless it sucks ... inwhich case 70 Million wont be so laughable.

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Sun Jul 10, 2005 2:44 pm
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Book 6 will hit hard next week, and I think it would be a miraculous feat at this point if Rowling is able to drop the ball on the book series. It's the largest printing ever. 10.8 million copies. It is the new best selling pre-sale ever replacing Book 5, which replaced Book 4.

Potter is also moving back to the more familiar territory of the fall film, which I think will serve it a little better, being that these are wet-rainy British films rather than plasticy American films. And Thanksgiving will help it... a lot.

You don't see as much hype for Book 6, not because there is no interest, but because there has been a concious effort to focus the marketing on THE BOOK and not misc. Potter merchandise. I expect this serves the purpose of not overkilling the Potter machine in 2005.

I don't expect Potter 4 to do better (BO wise) than Potter 1 or maybe 2, but more than Potter 3.

That said, new behind the scenes reports I've read, trailers, pictures have got me thinking that this film will continue both the book and the movie trend in getting better, and better, and better as they go along.


Sun Jul 10, 2005 3:26 pm
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I think it will open a bit less than azkaban,remember that azkaban opened in the summer and films open much bigger in the summer.
I say 90mill.

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Sun Jul 10, 2005 3:31 pm
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If it manages to stay under 3 and a half hours it will. But this is a 700 page book. POA was only like 450 and they cut a lot to make it 2 and a half hours. I don't see how Newell is gonna escape with under 3 hours without being ripped apart by the Potter community.


Sun Jul 10, 2005 3:48 pm
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I believe the director said it will be about the same length as AZKABAN.

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Sun Jul 10, 2005 3:56 pm
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movies35 wrote:
I believe the director said it will be about the same length as AZKABAN.


Woe! that means they are going to cut a lot of stuff from the book.
:mad:

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I heard longer ...

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If you cut all the SPEW stuff it cuts a lot right there. Cutting all the thoughts inside Harry's head cuts the rest. It should be fine at 2 1/2 hours. They just better not make the same mistake as Azkaban. The Shrieking Shack scene should have been 10 minutes longer. The third task/graveyard scene better be at least 40 minutes long.

Of course, I'd have no complaints if the movie was 3 hours long.


Sun Jul 10, 2005 4:25 pm
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If the Movie Covers The Whole Triwizard Tournament and the Creepy Graveyard Scene then that's half of the movie right here. Add in Jealously with Ron and Harry plus add some other big stuff maybe when Harry goes into the parsel and you got yourself a movie.


Mon Jul 11, 2005 2:23 am
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Okay, I'll enter the opening/gross club craze and claim that Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire will open to $95+ million this November!

Everyone feel free to join. :)

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Mon Jul 11, 2005 12:57 pm
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It'll top $100 million opening weekend, I think. Half-Blood Prince is making Potter fans excited again, and that will probably carry into November.

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Mon Jul 11, 2005 1:19 pm
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I totally agree. Just looking at sheer numbers will get this a $90 million opening and a $250 million finish, at least. I personally think 95/285 is what we're looking at here.

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Mon Jul 11, 2005 1:21 pm
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Harry Potter 1 32.5% domestic. 67.5% international.
= Worldwide: $976,475,550

Harry Potter 2 29.9% domestic. 70.1% international.
= Worldwide: $876,688,482

Harry Potter 3 31.6% domestic. 68.4% international.
= Worldwide: $789,791,069

I think about $228M total, and $532M internationally for $760M worldwide. Harry potter movies always do around 30% domestic, and 70% internationally.

I don't know about the opening, but the legs will be the worst of the series, thats a lock. Since the first movie, HARRY POTTER has lost $286.5 worth of audience.

$99M from Sorcerer's to Chambers.... over $180 from Sorceres to Prisoner...

But that's expected.

Yeah.... about $230M in america, $760 worldwide.


Mon Jul 11, 2005 1:26 pm
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Everytime a new potter film comes out many say how its going to gross more than the previouse,and they have done the oppossite.I remember many saying how HP3 was going to make over 300mill.

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Mon Jul 11, 2005 1:26 pm
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I'm thinking around $90 million, personally, with better legs than Azkaban had because of the holidays.


Mon Jul 11, 2005 1:27 pm
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well, according to the early reviews it is 2 1/2 hours. They cut out all of the SPEW stuff, and most of the classes, besides Defense Against The Dark Arts. However, they also cut the Quidditch World Cup, which I hope they correct by the time it's released. Sounds like Newell did a hell of a job though, following in Cauron's footsteps rather than Columbus', with more humor though. Mad Eye Moody sounds like he could be Jack Sparrow-like.

$97M opening. I'm in.


Last edited by Flava'd vs The World on Mon Jul 11, 2005 1:28 pm, edited 1 time in total.



Mon Jul 11, 2005 1:27 pm
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