Discuss the race for Best Picture and Director here.

Best motion picture of the year
“Babel” (Paramount and Paramount Vantage)
“The Departed” (Warner Bros.)
“Letters from Iwo Jima” (Warner Bros.)
“Little Miss Sunshine”
“The Queen”

Achievement in directing
“Babel,” Alejandro González Iñárritu
“The Departed,” Martin Scorsese
“Letters from Iwo Jima,” Clint Eastwood
“The Queen,” Stephen Frears
“United 93,” Paul Greengrass

Picture
1. Dreamgirls
2. The Departed
3. Babel
4. Little Miss Sunshine
5. The Queen
6. Letters From Iwo Jima
7. Pan's Labyrinth
8. United 93
9. Children Of Men (I...won't...give...up...ugh...)
10. Little Children

Director
1. The Departed
2. The Queen
3. Dreamgirls
4. Babel
5. United 93
6. Little Miss Sunshine
7. Letters From Iwo Jima
8. Pan's Labyrinth
9. Children Of Men
10. Volver

I'm predicting the LMS directors to lose out on the director nom with Eastwood sneaking in for Letters but I have a gut feeling it will be a 5 for 5 match up this year (meaning the LMS directors might end up getting in).

I really don't think Cuaron, Almodovar, and Pan's Labyrinth director have enough power to get a nom here. Almodovar and del Toro (aside from Foreign film noms) have screenplay nods going in their favor.

Greengrass could still sneak in but I find it highly unlikely with the surge of LMS support.

Best Picture race is pretty much set in stone (or so we think). I'd love to see a Walk the Line kind of suprise with Dreamgirls or Babel but I highly doubt it will happen.

My rankings:

Best motion picture of the year
1. The Departed (Warner Bros.)
2. The Queen (Miramax)
3. Babel (Paramount and Paramount Vantage)
4. Little Miss Sunshine (Fox Searchlight)
5. Letters from Iwo Jima (Warner Bros.)

Achievement in directing
1. The Departed, Martin Scorsese
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.
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2. Letters from Iwo Jima, Clint Eastwood
3. The Queen, Stephen Frears
4. Babel, Alejandro González Iñárritu
5. United 93, Paul Greengrass

There is no way in hell Babel is winning best picture for the simple fact that such a similar film won last year, with much controversy I might add. Little Miss Sunshine is too light-weight. So toss those two aside.

It's a three-way race between The Departed, Iwo Jima and The Queen. The Departed is a nose ahead, because I see Marty as unstoppable in director and the Academy will want to acknowledge his picture as well, something that he is also noted for not having won despite a glorious filmography.

With Dreamgirls completely out of the picture now, it's all Departed, baby.

I know I've been against Babel from day one, and I'm going to finally see it and The Queen this weekend, but I really think The Departed still has this. While I loved Letters From Iwo Jima and would happily take it winning over the other nominees, I'd just love to see my favorite film of the year win. Either way, I'm just impressed the Academy's nominations are at least 2/5 with my top five.

Scorsese is a lock for Director at this point and this along with a $125+ million box-office (after the rerelease) just give the film a huge edge.

Little Miss Sunshine is unlikely to win without the directing nom, The Queen has yet to win any major prizes for Picture, Iwo Jima is simply TOO small and Eastwood has recently won. Babel is too similar to Crash and I still contend that it has a lot going against it anyway.

The Departed should be leaps and bounds ahead.

At this point I don't know if The Departed can match Babel's and Little Miss Sunshine's momentum and passion behind them.

I think the SAG/WGA in the next couple days are going to decide everything. If Little Miss Sunshine wins the PGA AND SAG Ensemble AND WGA, I'd say it's just about game over, even without a director or editing nom. If Babel takes SAG/WGA, what it didn't get in the PGA it makes up for in a directing and editing nom, and it should be out in front. If like, Departed takes SAG and one of the other 2 or The Queen WGA, then, well, everything is nuts. I'd still have Babel in front in that situation though, the damn importance card.

By the way...

http://www.filmsite.org/aa06.html

Damn, that guy seems to have his Oscar explanations down pat, doesn't he. I love that site... perfect list of nominations and explanations for every year. Surprised he put this year's up so quick, but anyways, it's good.

I'm just about ready to give up on this year's Oscars. It's been a great and thrilling ride till now but the big 6 awards are almost all but set in stone now. Seriously, I'm gonna really getting into the minor categories to keep myself entertained.

Hudson is gonna win Supporting
Murphy is gonna win Supporting
Mirren is gonna win Lead
Forest is gonna win Lead
Scorsese is gonna win Director

Best Picture is only between 2 movies. The Departed and everything else. I've started to concede that Departed really doesn't have the support to win, so it doesn't matter what else wins because they are all the same if they're not The Departed.

I don't see how anyone could find this year boring when Best Picture is between 4 MOVIES. That's enough for me.

Well i looks like now Departe vs little ms sunshine is the markwee machup. Babl is the spoiler. I'm stll not fling the queen. fuck im drunk.

I'm still very scared of Babel.

The Departed doesn't seem to have that large of a support base but at this point, it still stands out as the most likely winner even if only because none of the rest of the nominees seems to have enough support either to garner a win.

I really don't think Little Miss Sunshine will win. I think the Departed deserves to and should win but I won't be totally upset if LMS upsets (though I would have preferred a Sideways win if a comedy were to upset a win in these past few years).

The Queen and Letters really have almost 0% of winning. Could you imagine the presentor opening the envelope and saying. "And the Oscar goes to.... The Queen"

I still think it's Departed v. Babel. I'm just wondering which film Little Miss Sunshine will steal votes from and thus, weaken.

I relaly hope Bable doesn't win... frign Osar-baiting crmatic bullshit. Imporantce, message, whooo. Fuck off. innaritu. At tjos point i htink it's Departed, LMS, and Babel, with the dege giong to the last wo because theya re the'small' films and they ahve more passion. Scosrse gets director... LMS or Bable pull Crash. I only hop it's LMS./

I'm actually not very concerned about Babel at all anymore. We're all concerned about this importance factor, which I agree is a factor, but when it happened last year with Crash, Crash won the SAG and the WGA Original (and went on to win Editing and Original Screenplay at the Oscars, to support the Best Picture win) and was getting "the push". At this point, Babel is doing nothing. If it weren't for a silly win at the Globes, it would be totally non-existent. I can't see it gaining enough support come Oscar night to win Best Picture now. I hear nothing about it now; the tide has been shifting toward Little Miss Sunshine as well as The Departed which was always in the race. And when nobody is talking about Babel, there's simply not enough of a passionate group there to push it to the win like Crash. There's no critics, like Ebert last year, rallying for it to win. There's no perceived talk about Babel in LA and "around". It's just failing, miserably. And it will likely win nothing at the Oscars, except maybe Score. It's Guildless in the major categories; it HAS to win Original Screenplay at the WGA to have any force, as I see it; but that won't be happening - a win over both Little Miss Sunshine and The Queen seems entirely unlikely to me.

I have to echo what xiayun has been saying all along; The Original Screenplay category is an important category this year. And since I don't see Babel having a chance at it anymore, it's done for.

My three cents.

Peace,
Mike.

Well said!

I just don't want to get my hopes up I guess.

I feel as though The Departed's place in the race and its support hasn't changed at all. The only thing that keeps changing is the random surges of support for other films around it. So, I'm hoping in the end, all those waves of passions will have subsided and people will have come to their senses and seen The Departed as the only choice there ever was.

There are two things that The Departed definitely has going for it:

1. Great box-office/crowd pleaser ($130+ million, excellent WoM)

2. A LOCK for Best Director

My rank will remain unchanged until Feb 11th:

1. The Departed
2. Little Miss Sunshine
3. The Queen
4. Babel
5. Letters from Iwo Jima

It interests me how the Globes become less and less of any sort of accurate projector of the Oscars. Last year they didn't even nominate the film that went on to win Picture the Oscars (Crash), and this year they chose Dreamgirls (a film not even nominated at the Oscars over Little Miss Sunshine, a film that is) and Babel (a film that has literally won nowhere else and I don't see winning anymore, although it is a possibly, I suppose).

I kinda like it. Either the the Globes are out of touch, or the Oscars are just refusing to be the same old thing and want to think on their own now instead of being told who to nominate.

Peace,
Mike.

http://www.incontention.com/2007/02/aro ... .html#more

In Contention says that Letters and The Queen are gaining steam, and The Departed and LMS are losing it.

I don't buy the latter, but I do think how The Queen is going to factor into all this is going to be interesting.

How are LMS and Departed losing steam when they have been winning all the guilds? Hehe.

By the way, Babel is now down to 68% on RT.

How this movie came this close to winning BP still befounds me.

Crash was 75%... not too far off.

I don't know. Babel really baffles me. I had it as my prediction a week ago but then again...
a)even though it's ebert's pick (and prediction) he's not really out there touting it like he did for Crash and MDB and he's not up and about to be taking a temperature from his peers which would make a better prediction
b)it has a strong passion index but I don't think it's as high or as pssionate as Crash's

Departed just got released on DVD so I wonder if that will add anything to its chances.

This year is so odd. the con arguments for every movie in the race is strong than its pro argument to win BP.

:confusion:

I know this has probably been asked + answered already, but when was the last time a film won Best Picture without even being nominated for Best Director?