Thunder's Forecast:

Rocky Balboa - $20.8M (3-day)/$36.5M (5-day)

That is pretty damn frontloaded man...but I'm with you on the 5-day total. I think $32m 5-day.

Yeah, I'm figuring a pretty big Wednesday, a 50% drop tomorrow, and no more than a 40-50% Thursday increase. I have the weekend IM at a shade over 2.5.

I think its friday should be like the same as its wednesday. Despite what tracking has said about those that are 30+ years old, I know more people who are in their late 20s to mid 30s who absolutely want to see the film than avoiding it(tracking had like 80% of all 35+ avoiding it and I think its way off). The movie is a perfect take your father or your 18+ year old son see film this holiday

We both seem to agree on the frontloading, though. You have 35% of the gross coming over Wed.Thurs., while I have 43%.

Yeah, those 30+ numbers are haywire. That would suggest virtually no interest from the demo that grew up watching the original films. I don't think so.

I don't have time to make full predictions to play the Derby this week.

Openers (4-day):

Night at the Museum - $36 million
Rocky Balboa - $34 million (6-day)
We Are Marshall - $13 million
The Good Shepherd - $10 million
Black Christmas - $2 million (1-day)
Dreamgirls - $2 million (1-day)

My Derby Predictions (all four day)

Night at the Museum - 32.1m
Rocky Balboa - 23.1m
Pursuit of Happyness - 16.7m (-37%)
Good Shepard - 12.2m
Eragon - 10.4m (-55%)
Charlotte's Web - 9.1m (-21%)
We Are Marshall - 7.0m
Happy Feet - 6.1m (-27%)
Apocalypto - 4.5m (-44%)

Top Ten Cume - 127.3m

I based on opening predictions on absolutely nothing. Except for Rocky, which I am projecting it will go this direction after a 6 million opening day, and We Are Marshall for the lousy sneaks. I just throw random predictions around at this time of year.
The drops may seem big, but I look at 2000 for a reference, and the 3-day drops for the holdovers were very harsh except for kid movies. So I compare these movies to 2000 movies and used their patterns to predict their weekends (the Friday increase tends to be around 40%, the Saturday won't increase that much, Sunday will drop at least 50%, and Christmas Day will have films rise anywhere from 60-140%, based on genre and how harsh the Sunday drop is (kid movies tend to increase no more than 20% on Christmas day).

Hey Scott V,

Do you really see NATM only having an opening day of around $8 or $9 Million? I think the Rocky is just a little low for the 4 day weekend. I hope it does at least $25 but we will have to see Thursdays drop to really have an idea of how frontloaded it might be. I agree that Marshall will bomb but I don't think Shepherd will do that high with its low theatre count, rating and length of movie. Couple other things working against it including a lot of competition.

I see the openers doing the following.

4 Day

NATM $42 Mill
Rocky $26 Mill
Shepherd $9 Mill
Marshall $8.5 Mill

-Brendan

4-day
Night at the Museum - 25 mil
Rocky Balboa - 23 mil
The Pursuit of Happyness - 20 mil
Eragon - 12 mil
We Are Marshall - 19 mil
The Good Shepherd - 13 mil
Charlotte's Web - 13 mil
Happy Feet - 7 mil
The Holiday - 6.7 mil
Apocalypto - 5.8 mil
Black Christmas - 1.3 mil (1-day)

I must be the only one seeing Night not doing as hot as predicted here. Ben Stiller is no draw, and I'm not sure about the appeal past kids.

Nobody will go to Black Christmas on Christmas. Nice gimmick on paper, but in reality it's a terrible spot for it.

I'm going to start playing the derby again once the new year starts, actually trying instead of the 5 minute predicts I've been doing for a couple months now.

Ben Stiller isn't considered a draw...?

I dont think draws end up with films with around 10m total ( Duplex and Envy ) but obviously if you put him in a comedy with tons of marketing and mass appeal, you'll have something. He's a draw to an extent, he's just not consistent.

Final Predictions

4-Day

1.Night at the Museum - 37.3m(10123 PTA)
2.Rocky Balboa - 31.5m(10442 PTA)
3.The Pursuit of Happyness- 19.3m-27.3%
4.Charlottes Web - 11.7m+2.0%
5.Eragon - 11.4m-51.0%
6.The Good Shepherd - 10.2m(4600 PTA)
7.Happy Feet - 8.9m+6.5%
8.We are Marshall - 8.1m(3110 PTA)
9.The Holiday - 5.7m-29.0%
10.Apocalypto- 4.6m-42.5%

Black Christmas

Wolf Creek
Christmas Day: $2,805,754 at 1,749 theatres.
Box Office Total: $16,188,000

Darkness
Christmas Day: $3,298,000 at 1,700 theatres.
Box Office Total: $22,163,442


Black Christmas has an advantage for opening day due to the theme.
However, it is only in 1300 theatres,

Black Christmas
Christmas Day: $2,340,000
Box Office Total: $13,500,000

i hope it does better.

Surely to release it December 15th, like here in the Uk, would have given it better legs?

1. Night at the Museum $46m
2. Rocky Balboa $20m
3. The Pursuit of Happyness $17.9m
4. Eragon $13.4m
5. The Good Shepherd $11.2m
6. We Are Marshall $8.1m
7. Charlotte's Web $8m
8. The Holiday $5.5m
9. Happy Feet $5.4m
10. Apocalypto $4.9m

Final Derby Predictions

1. Night at the Museum - 33.2
2. Rocky Balboa - 24.4
3. The Pursuit of Happyness - 21.7
4. We Are Marshall - 13.8
5. Eragon - 13.4
6. The Good Shepherd - 11.4
7. Charlotte's Web - 10.5
8. Happy Feet - 8.5
9. The Holiday - 7.0
10. Apocalypto - 6.0

Thunder's Forecast (3-Day):

Night at the Museum - $28.4M
Rocky Balboa - $19.5M
We Are Marshall - $13.3M
The Good Shepherd - $5.2M

ok I'll give this a try,

3 day weekend

NATM - 24.75 million
Balboa - 16.5 million
Pursuit - 13 million
Shepherd - 8.25 million
Marshall - 6.75 million

Rolling Thunder you can't be serious with over 13 for Marshall! I can't see it doing over 5 million today or tomorrow, it doesn't seem possible.

Christmas Predix

Black Christmas - $1.2 million ($1200 PTA)
Dreamgirls - $5.5 million ($6500 PTA)

Just some figured to think about as we head into the Christmas week and the long weekend next weekend....

Chicago opened to 8.2 million when it went wide into 616 theatres over the Christmas break, for an average of 13, 374.

With arguably more buzz right out of the gate, Dreamgirls could certainly pull in 10 million from 850 theatres next weekend, and some nice weekday numbers as well! It's going to get off to a great start, and if it can follow Chicago's genious release patter right through the awards season, then it too can end up with 170 million .