Anyone care to predict Blood Diamond? I hope it sees another strong hold!

4.5 mil.

Thanks.

I think based on this weekend's 17.7% drop, and last weekend's 27% drop, NS could go up next weekend if it doesn't lose too many theaters. It's avg this weekend only fell 1.5%, from a loss of 509 theaters (lost 16.5% of its theaters, and dropped 17.7%). So if it can maintain theaters, it could be heading up next weekend. At least its redeeming itself somewhat after its poor opening weekend...

Black Christmas offends religious groups

Gee, what's new?

Here is some good news about CW I guess.

It dropped a scant 3% here in Oz in its second weekend and that is with Eragon opening and the biggest boxoffice days yet to come. Remember last weekend I equated its $1.3m gross with an equivalent low teens US gross. Well that happened. So I guess this bodes well for perhaps a 15% drop next weekend in the US (considering ANATM is opening).

Likewise Eragon opened to $2.1m here which is similar to the low $20m's US gross. (Oz number x 10)

So looks decent for CW in the coming weeks.

From notfabio at HSX

I assume that's 3-day, so pretty solid for Museum and Rocky, not much for the other two.

EDIT: Here's ReelSource.

Are those 3-day, too?

Oh, for the love of God...people will get offended by anything.

Wow, only $10 million even with the numerous reshoots? That's pretty amazing.

Quite a big descrepncy on Night at the Museum between RS and MTC. Seems like last weeks Pursuit numbers. Im sort of leaning towards MTC's estimate on NATM. It seems consistent with the lack of buzz on yahoo trailers and imdb. Wonder what RollingThunder's power-aid score will be

NATM - $39M
Rocky - $29M (since wednesday)

and Charlottes Web is gonna drop harder than you all think. Kids want action or comedy, and NATM has both. In the summer Monster House and Barnyard both did good, but The Ant Bully bombed.

It's true, Web could drop more this upcoming weekend. But the way the holidays work, it could drop 30% this weekend, and then go up 30% the next weekend, so its really the weekend bumpup the following weekend that will be most imp. long term wise for it.

I hate to predict this weekend anyway



NATM:38
RB:24
GS:10

I'm going to underpredict everything, so I won't be disappointed.

Night At The Museum $17 m
Rocky $10 m
We Are Marshall $7 m
The Good Shepard $7 m
Charlotte's Web -50% $5.65 m

I hope... nay, pray The Good Shepherd reaches eight digits over the four-day frame. It would be so, so depressing for me if it didn't.

Comingsoon's predictions:

1 Night at the Museum $33.3
2 Rocky Balboa $18.2
3 The Pursuit of Happyness $15.8 -41%
4 The Good Shepherd $11.2
5 Eragon $10.6 -54%
6 We Are Marshall $10.3
7 Charlotte's Web $8.1 -30%
8 Happy Feet $5.4 -35%
9 The Holiday $4.4 -45%
10 The Nativity Story $3.9 -15%

$33.3 m would be very strong for Night At The Museum, and would be enough imo to push it very close to $200 m. I hope Rocky pulls that much. Seems a bit steep for Happyness. Eragon I think will drop more. And Nativity Story I think will drop a bit less.

Always the worst weekend of the year to predict with films not opening normally on Friday. Basically Sunday and Monday will be reversed from a regular 4-day holiday weekend, as Christmas Eve will be horrible while Monday will be great.

Yes, I agree. The year 2000 is a good comparison, since it had the same schedule, with Christmas Eve on Sunday. Cast Away did $29 million in that frame.

WW seems to take into consideration the holiday rush and possible lower movie rush, as well as Christmas Eve, though. So his predictions seem solid to me.


"The weekend right before Christmas can be dicey, because let's face it, people are shopping and traveling and the last thing on their mind is going to the movies."

"Really, this can be a tough weekend to predict because it's so close to Christmas, and as mentioned, some people will be traveling or doing last minute shopping. The last time Christmas landed on Monday, Mr. Tom Hanks killed the weekend with his holiday movie Cast Away, which made nearly $29 million, but the rest of the Top 5, including Nancy Meyers' romantic comedy What Women Want. Nicholas Cage's The Family Man and Sandra Bullock's Miss Congeniality, made another $50 million between them. Obviously, movies can make money on this weekend, though all but the family films could be slanted towards Friday."

Monday will be great, but not for everything.

Remember, if you look at past years, the family films usually have the smallest increases from Christmas Eve to Christmas Day, then surging the highest on the day after.

Night at the Museum - $31m 3-day
Rocky Balboa $21m 3-day ($32.5m 5-day)
We Are Marshall - $8.5m
The Good Shepherd - $8.0m

This is the only time of year that I enjoy looking at the weekdays more than the weekend. The weekdays are "very nice!"

Early Predictions

3-Day

1. Night at The Museum - 32.6m
2. Pursuit of Happyness - 15.3m
3. Rocky Balboa - 15.0m
4. Eragon - 8.8m
5. Charlotte's Web - 8.1m
6. The Good Shepherd - 6.8m
7. We Are Marshall - 6.3m
8. Happy Feet - 5.8m
9. Nativiy Story - 4.7m
10. The Holiday - 4.7m
11. Blood Diamond - 3.9m
12. Apocalypto - 3.6m

4-Day
1. Night - 44.2m
2. Pursuit - 20.8m
3. Rocky - 20.2m
4. Eragon - 12.5
5. Web - 11.3m
6. Happy - 9.1m
7. Shepherd - 8.9m
8. Marshall - 8.5m
9. Nativity - 7.1m
10. Holiday - 6.6m
11. Diamond - 5.1m
12. Apocalypto - 5.0m

-Black Christmas - 2.2m
-Dreamgirls - 3.9m

Thunder's Forecast:

Rocky Balboa - $20.8M (3-day)/$36.5M (5-day)