Loyal is going to have a nervous breakdown if United 93 (the best film of the year, so far!) gets a nom.

Nothing is really coming close to it's overall reviews, thus far.

The Queen is also quietly surging. I knew people at Venice liked it a lot, but still thought it's mainly a Mirren's vehicle that would end up with a fresh score around 80%. Now it has a 95 at BFCA and 92 at metacritic with 6 reviews in (one 100 and three 90's).

Crash was a box-office success. The King of Scotland won't make more than Capote, I think. By last year's measures, Crash was quite a hit. Moreover it had a huge cast and the writer of M$B directing.

And basically what xiayun said. Fox Searchlight will (and probably should) be pushing Little Miss Sunshine with its reviews and the big success.

If its Metacritic score stays in the mid-80s, I think I'll swap it and LKOS in my predicts.

Just two days ago, LKOS sat at 10 positive 1 negative and a rating of 8.1. 5 reviews later you're ready say it's over?

When I say "over" I implicate "if the current level stays". Judging by the average grade right now, there is a higher chance that it stays than that it doesn't. Nothing is given yet with 16 reviews, but chances are it'll finish with less than 90% and 90% is what it'll be needing with the lack of great box-office because when picking the critics' darlings the Academy will rather go for LMS and U93.

Gotcha.

My dream lineup of the final 5 would be. (as of now)

Flags of Our Fathers
United 93
The Departed
Bobby
The Good German

Weird year to me. I can't even begin to guess a Best Picture winner. I mean each year, I could at least say that I think this one will win, whether right or wrong at the end. But this year, I don't have a feeling about a single film.

The films that in my opinion might have what they need to win are just to small (like U93) and all of the bigger successes I just can't see winning at all (The Departed, Flags of our Fathers, Dreamgirls). The smaller ones like Bobby, The Good German, The Queen...I don't see the Academy awarding two low-grossers in a row Thus not even a hint of an idea what will win. Last year at this point I was thinking Munich or Geisha, the year before The Aviator obviously, year before that ROTK (D'uh), but this year...nada.

Little Miss Sunshine is te only one that somehow fits the scheme because with an awards push it could pass $80 million and thus be a very decent grosser, it is also generally beloved and doesn't have a director who won very recently and it's not a musical starring Beyonce or a bloody crime thriller.

But a comedy for the win...I don't know...

Dr. Lecter, if you have seen THE PERFUME, do you think it has a possibility for nominations in the major categories?

Nope, I haven't, but judging by what I heard and read...rather unlikely. Supposedly it is good, but no more than that. A foreign film needs to be excellent to have chances at bigger noms.

Three opinions on the race from Gold Derby article.

Lou Lemineck is awards-retarded, heh.

BEST ACTOR
1. George Clooney, "The Good German" *
2. S.B. Cohen, "Borat"
3. Forrest Whitaker, "The Last King of Scotland"
4. Edward Norton, "The Illusionist"
5. Ben Sliney, "United 93"



...

And Lecter, reading through your post, I don't see how Dreamgirls, Flags, or The Departed can't win, you say it has to be a success this year, and those are the ones, if they're good enough I don't see why not.

Even the smaller films, I don't think it's near a rule that a low-ish grosser can't win 2 years in a row. Crash was much more popular than the 50 mil would say, if it was released during Oscar season, it would be 120 mil+, so people are still interested. Even this year, with Dreamgirls and The Departed nominated, that'll bring in the ratings on their own, so people won't mind *that* much if a smaller film takes it.

Eh...a few comments to those.

Two of them see Volver as a BP nominee. I'd be lying if I said that I don't consider it a dark horse. Currently it is around #7 or so on my list, but if the box-office is right (something $10 million would probably increase its chances greatly), it might move into the Top 5. It has lots of support behind it.

All lists are missing U93 and The Departed. A mistake, IMO. I think at least one will make it.

Every single list has Babel and Flags of our Fathers. I still don't buy the whole hype around Babel, it is supposedly the same quality as 21 Grams and doesn't seem to be more "mainstream". Flags is based on the pedigree...will probably make it.

The New York Post guy has a very weird Best Actor list.

Clooney, Sacha Baron Cohen, Norton and some guy from U93 I never heard of...(I suppose he played Todd Beamer)... most likely none of them will make it. Borat only has a chance if it grosses $150+ million and stays at 75+% at RT.

There is a lot of consensus about Best Actress and I agree with that. Streep, Mirren, Winslet and Cruz will all get in. The 5th is between Bening and Miller for them...

Flags because Eastwood won recently, Haggis won recently because war films haven't been hot at the Oscars for a looong time (not even Ryan has won) and because letting Flags win means outright mocking Scorsese if he is nominated as well.

Dreamgirls, I just don't feel it. Stated my reasons several times before.

The Departed *could* win, but because of the genre I don't see that happening. If it is a really big success, then yeah.

Ben Sliney played Ben Sliney, the main FAA guy.

Ah, ok, that was my second thought, but then I was thinking that the guy can't be insane enough to suggest that someone will be nominated for an Oscar playing himself.

I'll eat something gross and post video here on KJ if UA93 is nominated for BP. That's how certain I am it's not happening.

Like a dog turd?

Marie Antoinette and The Queen have received 1 new positive review each.

Or an odd insect. Our own KJ fear factor.

How about that lizard you found.

Babel has received it's first bad review.

A positive for Scotland from NY Times, but the MC average is down to 75, with every score packed between 70 and 90.

But but OPRAH SAW IT 3 TIMES!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Last King of Scotland has added 3 more positive reviews. The rating definitely needs to go up for a Best Picture nom to be a reality.

Little Children got another bad review. uh-oh

It's rating is down to 6.2

I still think Kate is safe.

So far it looks like most of the films screened are falling apart - except The Departed, Babel, Volver and to some extent The Queen.