omg!!! Sigourney is in the race?



Well, The Black Dahlia is another one that won't get anywhere near the Oscars - not even the technicals...

Wait, Stranger Than Fiction got killed at Toronto? I thought all the reviews for it were pretty damn good? Does someone have some links to support this?

I've heard mixed word, but I'm still excited for it because James Berardinelli loved it.

Mav, you really can't justify every gut feeling with "Stranger things have happened." It gets annoying and stupid after a while.

Oh, and you should include Bug on your list Ashley Judd still has a shot if the critics like it (It ddi get good reactions at Cannes).

And I remain confident Bobby won'y get any major noms. It won't have the reviews or B.O. to make it.

Some Toronto wraps: http://www.incontention.com/toronto/

The Fountain seems like it failed where Eternal Sunshine excelled. That movie had it's interesting concept, the surreal thing, but underneath the core of the story is the relationship between Carrey and Winslet, it makes it a simple story even. The Fountain seems like it goes all out on the concept, but fails to ground it with Jackman and Weisz's story, it doesn't get it's prioritys straight. Too bad.

Babel might be the frontrunner at this moment.

All the King's Men is definitely out.

Two "Six degrees of seperation in this crazy, prejudice world" movies in a row? When was the last time two films so close in theme won two years in a row?

I really don't see how Dreamgirls is not the frontrunner at this point. Early word on the preview reels has been very good, it's very tech-friendly (After last year, I'm sure they want revenge) and it'll score big at the Globes. I really don't think this is another Phantom or Producers. Unlike those two, this has a competent director at the helm that has dealt with musicals before (He DID write Chicago).

It's not a frontrunner for me because nobody has seen the film. Oscarwatch.com is a bad one for calling things frontrunners and pushing things because of their own bias. It depends on the quality much more than the genre. All of the arguments you're using are the same that people tried to use with Jarhead at this point last year. When things played out, of course, Jarhead was nowhere to be found.

Even "on paper", Flags would be #1 on the list. I say that with no bias, just as somebody who knows what film has the most clout behind it. A combination of Spielberg, Eastwood, and Haggis kinda leaves the rest in the dust.

Mav, unlike Flags, Dreamgirls was shown, albeit only a few segments (4, I believe), and that's where the early buzz came from. I'd be with you if nobody has seen it, but that's not the case. It's not as if people automatically said it's musical so it's a contender type of thing. People fell into that trap the last couple of years after the success of MR and Chicago, but not now after the failures of Phantom and The Producers. Of course, both Phantom and Producers tested well before getting slammed by critics, but Dreamgirls was shown at Cannes, and such a good reception should not be ignored.

So far, as we look at some of the upcoming Best Picture and Acting hopefuls that have emerged from various

festivals, an early picture is beginning to take shape.

All the King's Men appears to be a disappointment, and the fact that it was delayed for a year was an early warning that

it was in trouble.

http://www.rottentomatoes.com/m/all_the ... /?show=all

Reviews Counted: 5
Fresh: 0 Rotten: 5
Average Rating: 3.2/10

0%


Little Children is getting some raves early on. Of course, Katie will get a nomination and win! The film itself might not

be able to stand up to competition when all is said and done, but the American Beauty comparisons are making a strong case

for it.

http://www.rottentomatoes.com/m/little_ ... critic=all

Reviews Counted: 6
Fresh: 6 Rotten: 0
Average Rating: 7.5/10

100%

The Last King of Scotland continues to zoom to the top of my most anticipated list! Forest Whitaker is already drawing

raves very similar to what Phillip Seymour Hoffman did for Capote, and only a smaller than normal lead role stands in his

way from taking home an Oscar this year.

http://www.rottentomatoes.com/m/last_ki ... /?show=all

Fresh: 4 Rotten: 0

Catch a Fire is off to a bit of a disappointing start. A reviewer who gives it a C+ says "Audience reaction here, for what it's worth, did seem enthusiastically positive. So what do I know?" That gives me some hope, because I think this looks very interesting.

http://www.rottentomatoes.com/m/catch_a_fire/?show=all

Fresh: 2 Rotten: 2

The Queen and Helen Mirren are off to a great start, as the raves have not let up yet. After her win in Venice, and with

this level of review praise, I find it hard to imagine her not getting an actress nomination.

http://www.rottentomatoes.com/m/queen/?show=all

Fresh: 4 Rotten: 0

Babel is getting raves early on, much to my own personal chagrin. It's said to be a tear jerker at the end, and I have a

baaaaaad feeling this is going to be one of the major players, and Angie's boy toy is going to get a nomination, along

with the film, director, and screenplay.

http://www.rottentomatoes.com/m/babel/?critic=all

Reviews Counted:
Fresh: 7 Rotten: 0
Average Rating: 7.9/10

100%

Bobby just needs the reviews, as it's got the acting muscle to get it in the front door. I'm going as far as calling this

a lock, based on early word out of Venice. Of all the Best Picture hopefuls, this can have the weakest reviews and still

get in.

http://www.rottentomatoes.com/m/1000670 ... /?show=all

Fresh: 4 Rotten: 0

Candy is a film that I personally don't see much coming of.

http://www.rottentomatoes.com/m/candy/?show=all

Fresh: 2 Rotten: 1

A Good Year, starring the dreaded Russell "Cinderella" Crowe, looks to be decent, but forgetable fare.

http://www.rottentomatoes.com/m/good_year/?show=all

Fresh: 2 Rotten: 1

Infamous seems to be getting a mixed reaction early, and even though it's only 5 reviews, I think it's very clear that it

won't come close to matching the critical success of Capote.

http://www.rottentomatoes.com/m/infamous/?show=all

Reviews Counted: 6
Fresh: 2 Rotten: 4
Average Rating: 5.2/10

33%

Marie Antoinette doesn't appear to be the disaster that it was originally said to be, but it also doesn't appear to be

anything special. Might get a Costume nomination, but if these reviews are any indication, not much else.

http://www.rottentomatoes.com/m/marie_a ... critic=all

Reviews Counted: 5
Fresh: 3 Rotten: 2
Average Rating: 6.6/10

60%

Volver is a STUD out of the gate, and I do expect this to be Penelope Cruz's Frida and get her a Best Actress nomination.

Depending on how the competition shakes out, it could get a lot more than that. I think Cruz is a lock, but it's an uphill

climb for the rest.

http://www.rottentomatoes.com/m/volver/?critic=all

Reviews Counted: 18
Fresh: 17 Rotten: 1
Average Rating: 7.7/10

94%

Venus is getting Peter O'Toole some early raves, and he'll probably grab the old veteran slot in the Best Actor category.

His 7 prior nominations without a win make him one of the favorites to win this year.

http://www.rottentomatoes.com/m/venus/

Fresh: 2 Rotten: 0

Um, that wasn't just Oscarwatch. Everyone was saying Jarhead was the frontrunner. And to And OW also weren't the only ones saying KK was going to get nommed. Lolyal was pimpin' it in OCTOBER, and many began following in early December. See?

And who exactly has seen Flags of Our Fathers? It also isn't the frontrunner because no director has followed up a Best Picture winner with a Best Picture nominee since James L. Brooks. That's more then some random fact. It shows the academy likes to spread the wealth. And, Letters from Iwo Jima will split votes with FOOF now that both are coming out this year.

Will Dreamgirls win Best Picture? Probably not. The frontrunner at this stage never does (Except Return of the King). But it is, at this point, the kind of film that fits the profile.

Um, not everyone was saying that about Jarhead. I was making the same argument to those who were last year, but they never listen. And I tried to talk people out of that KK nonsense, too.

Remember these things the next time you think I'm new to this stuff.

And who has seen Dreamgirls? Nobody? Then the word "frontrunner" doesn't apply. Just as it didn't for Jarhead when people tried to claim such foolishness.

Not to sound like a persistant jackass, but it recieved a mixed response at TIFF. I get the feeling this is going to be a borderline fresh kind of movie when its all said and done.

Remember that there are agendas at work when you take "reports" of mixed reactions at TIFF as the gospel. David Poland is already working hard, but he's nobody that the academy or critics are going to consider when they determine the film's quality.

Omigod sweet Mavvvvvvvy, I bow down to your great prediction skills. You make me go cookoo with your greatness.



In that case, Flags of Our Fathers isn't the frontrunner.

And I never, ever predicted King Kong for any of the major catagories, ever. I was probably the only person at OW who was.



And they're going to consider the reaction at Venice and your blind opinion?

Now who has an agenda?

Reactions to Dreamgirls have been good and there is buzz, but at the moment I think Babel has... more buzz.

Not to mention the director is stronger, and the cast is more awards potent.

We'll have to see though. It, Flags, and Dreamgirls are the top 3 for now though.

Get in line. I've drove many a member cuckoo. So many that I think there is a help hotline available.



Exactly. The frontrunner right now is probably United 93. There's no guarantee that anything else will go over as well at this point in time. Flags, Dreamgirls, and the rest are just hopefuls right now.



Good for you, Jon. Perhaps you should hang out at this Oscar forum where your contributions would be more appreciated.



What on Earth would I want an agenda for? I don't have any motivations that I would be agenda minded.

Sasha Stone was pushing Kong hard. Many places were. It didn't take long for the herd to start forming, and critics being manipulated, as they can be so easily, into grading it higher than it deserved. (and higher than it would be graded if it was released knowing what we know today) They bought into it and were "doing their part". These various sites push for things, as if they might have some influence. Keeping Dreamgirls in the public eye, for instance, giving it undeserved "buzz" based on a few agenda driven opinions regarding a few preview clips that supposedly went over well. I put as much stock in that as I do the trailer not going over well here and elsewhere on the net. People, especially on the internet, aren't above making things up to suit their purpose.

I don't ever let bias rule my thinking. I make detailed arguments and back it up with info and more info, and the stronger I feel about it's chances, the more info I usually will post. It should come as no suprise to anyone here that Flags of Our Fathers is my #1 Oscar film. I hope it cleans up every award this season. Massacre city!

Having said that, you are free to find any posts of me touting it as the frontrunner or giving it a "it's the film to beat" tag. I could be doing that, but I don't let my biases rule my thinking. Their seems to be some bitterness about all of Eastwood's recent and much deserved successes. We'll see how wide spread that sentiment is. There are lots of variables that hurts it's chances, and I'm a realist about that. I'm not pushing any agendas, despite it being my #1 film by far. I could be pushing things about this film for my own personal satisfaction all day long, but I'd rather maintain objectivity.

Final Toronto thoughts from Kris Tapley: http://www.incontention.com/2006/09/aftermath.html#more.

I'm going to go ahead and be the first to say that Flags of our Fathers will NOT be nominated for Best Picture at the Oscars.

Just my inkling.

PEACE< Mike.

I'm already predicting it too, Mike.

Don't know if it's been mentioned, but Death of a President won the critics choice at Toronto.

http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0853096/

It isn't going anywhere, but it's definitley an ambitious and original concept. Probably would've worked better if it wasn't concerning *this* president though, that makes things automatically too controversial. If it came out a decade ago with Bill, it could've been a fun enjoyable watch.

Slant gave The Last King of Scotland a positive review too. So far 100% fresh and 7.9 average with 5 reviews.

This is turning out to be a great year for predicting the Oscars... almost nothing is set in stone, not even any "due" actors/actresses... closest being KAte Winslet, but her competition is another somewhat "due" actress.

I too think that (unless the race really shrivels up at the end), Flags of our Fathers won't be nominated.

there are too many films being released early this year and that's kind of throwing me off... but at least we'll get to see them earlier.

If Little Children is at least somewhat of a critical darling, it could knab a "In the Bedroom"-esque nom... again if the race seems to be falling apart.

I haven't really read into anything about Dreamgirls, so I'll hold my judgement for that.

I'm hoping Babel does well and becomes a major player.

"This season, perhaps even more impressively, DiCaprio holds his own in "The Departed," Scorsese's best film since "GoodFellas," against such heavyweights as Jack Nicholson, Matt Damon, and Martin Sheen. With justice and luck, "The Departed" should garner DiCaprio (and Scorsese) Oscar nominations." -- Emanual Levy