The boycott's been in a holding pattern anyway since Life.

It looks like shit.

But Chicago was shit... and it won... and Crash was shit... and it won... so...

You never know

25 weeks to go, Flags barely holds a lead over Dreamgirls on the Gurus of Gold chart.

http://www.moviecitynews.com/awards/200 ... 60906.html

History of the Oscars and musicals

2002 - Chicago WON
13 noms/6 wins - led all nominees

2001 - Moulin Rouge
8 noms/2 wins - led 2 nominees

1992 - Beauty and the Beat
6 noms/2 wins - fewest nominations

1979 - All That Jazz
9 noms/3 wins - led 3 nominees

1972 - Cabaret
10 noms/8 wins - led all nominees, along with Godfather

1971 - Fiddler of the Roof
8 noms/3 wins - led 3 nominees

1969 - Hello, Dolly!
7 noms/3 wins - led 1 nominee, along with Butch Cassidy

1968 - Oliver! WON
11 noms/5 wins

1968 - Funny Girl
8 noms/1 win - led 3 nominees

1967 - Doctor Dolittle
9 noms/2 wins - led 1 nominee

1965 - Sound of Music WON
10 noms/5 wins - led all nominees, along with Dr. Zhivago

1964 - My Fair Lady WON
12 noms/8 wins - led 2 nominees, along with Becket

1964 - Mary Poppins
13 noms/5 wins - led all nominees

1962 - The Music Man
6 noms/1 win - led 1 nominee

1961 - West Side Story WON
11 noms/10 wins - led all nominees, along with Judgement at Nuremburg

1956 - The King and I
9 noms/5 wins - led 3 nominees

1954 - Seven Bridges for Seven Brothers
5 noms/1 win - led 1 nominee

1951 - An American in Paris WON
8 noms/6 wins - led 1 nominee, along with Quo Vadis

1939 - Wizard of Oz
6 noms/2 wins - led 3 nominees, along with Love Affair

It dawned on me that Dreamgirls could be the first Best Picture winner comprised almost entirely of black supporting and lead actors. Does this help the film? We know Oscar voters love to make a point when possible.

Or it could just be the next notch in the line, the academy never awarding a black movie before isn't exactly a good omen. Though really I think it's meaningless overall.

When was the last time a film with an overwhelmingly all black cast won at the Oscars? What was the last film with an overwhelmingly black cast that clicked big time with non-black audiences?

Um...

Ray?

Right ... Ray, a low budget movie with a mostly black cast that turned a modest profit. Not even a particularly good biopic but at least its subject was Ray Charles, a legendary performer whom most everybody liked. See, what worries me about the much more expensive Dreamgirls is that it doesn't have that kind of inbuilt advantage & when you look at the budget - which must be in the region of 90 million, at least - I reckon it could have difficulty breaking even never mind becoming a blockbuster. International box office for D'girls is quite iffy here because overseas audiences have never embraced black stars as warmly as US audiences have. The likes of Foxx and Murphy may be respected and popular but they simply don't have the kind of star power to open movies abroad, much less sustain them. If that indifferent attitude is reflected in the choices made by the Hollywood Foreign Press when they vote for Golden Globe nominees that could have a knock on effect with regard to perceptions of its chances at the Oscars. And if it doesn't make a profit or looks like an underachiever then Oscar will turn its back (especially after the embarrassment over last years crop of low grossing nominees). Also, the Academy awarded its top prize to a race drama last year so if anybody tries an argument along the lines of 'Oh, Dreamgirls shows black people overcoming adversity, inspiring role models, show you care, etc etc ' well, I just don't think that's going to have much impact. Not this year. So, no, I'm unconvinced the all black cast will help the films Oscar chances.

Crash was a race drama yes, but it certainly didn't glorify black people. It was still written and directed by a white person based on his expierience getting carjacked, and had a mostly white cast. This will absolutely rally black audiences if it's well done, and it certainly can't hurt with a liberal award show like the Oscars.

Actually Ray was financed independently & distributed by Universal. It reportedly cost $40 million & that likely doesn't include p&a costs. At best that's at the low end of what would be termed a mid-budget pic.

Are you really trying to shoot down Dreamgirls through overseas returns?

No, I'm making the point that black stars don't have much box office clout o'seas (which is true) & therefore a less than stellar result could damage perceptions of the film as a would be Oscar champ. A film full of black faces is going to impact on the intl gross. Geffen & co know this perfectly well but I guess their thinking is the film has so much else going for it that it's not going to be a major problem. They may be right. On the other hand they may not. The generally well received Ray, for example, even with a musical legend like Ray Charles at its centre, grossed just $48 million abroad. Dreamgirls doesn't really have anything comparable. Well, it has Beyonce but that's not quite the same thing, and as we already know Dreamgirls will likely cost at least three times as much as Ray.

Not everyone may think Dreamgirls is the frontrunner for BP this year, but I don't think anyone doubts that it's the frontrunner for Musical/Comedy. It has an EXCELLENT chance at winning Best Picture (Musical/Comedy), Best Actor (Musical/Comedy), etc. thanks to it fitting that small genre. For it to not make profit it'd have to get dissapointing reviews/bad WOM, and I really don't see that happening.

Or it just has to have an all black cast that few outside of black audiences embrace with any real enthusiasm. Look, I'm not trying to drag the film down - I like musicals - I'm just trying to point out it could be a problem.

Financially, it's one of the most sure things of Oscar season.

Maybe, maybe not.

There always has to be a first (ROTK).

Let's face it...ROTK had a wee bit more going for it.

It had everything going for it. But people still used the same agrument, a fantasy film will never win.

We're dealing with a situation where Dreamgirls could lead all nominees (again, using the argument that a nomination is locked).

So we have a musical, with an all black cast, leading all other BP nominees.

The last two years, leading all the nominees proved as a curse (The Aviator/Brokeback Mountain), heh.

WHy is that a disgusting way, that was a pretty terible way to counterpoint his arguemtn. First of all is not a bad comparison, however Foxx showed promise in ANy Given SUnday and Ali before Ray, so I wasn't that surprised and he always hadd good comedic timing. As for Beyonce, yes her pst films haven;t actually shown alot, but her chracters were paaper thin, do I think she is assured a nomination, no, it depends on if in her first real role as an actress she can deliver, but considering all teh buzz I have heard is about Jennifer HUdson my money is on her.

Yes there are lot of terrible signers turned actresses, but there are good ones like Barbra Streisand, QUeen Latifah, hell Catherine Zeta JOnes sang early in her career, I think she had a hit single in Wales. Lots of actors can sing and some signers can act, and given the type of role this is Beyonce is likely to be more succesfull doing this were it involves her singing talents then trying to do Swank role in Million Dollar Baby.

AS for the quota, did any minorities get nominated lsat year, I am striving to think of one...

Not to forget Oscar winner Cher

Terrence Howard for Hustle & Flow

Limey's arguments about black performance overseas is false from the getgo, heh. Not only will Dreamgirls make fine money with 100 mil+ from just domestic, which will be higher than any other nominee this year, but black-based movies don't really have an issue internationally. Hitch for example made 368 mil worldwide.

Really, Dreamgirls is making over 100 mil, 130 mil or so is where I put it, with an outside shot at much more. At that point international numbers do not matter for it.

What the hell does overseas success of Dreamgirls have to do with this thread? The Oscars are American...

I have no idea.

But to your ealier point about Aviator/BBM leading with the most noms, you're right with BBM. It should have won. But with Aviator, no one really thought it would win.

I need to look up the stats, but I'm guessing if you're nominated for BP and have the most nominations, statistically, you will win more times than lose.

No one? I'd bet that half of the people here did (inlcuding myself), considering it won the PGA, the Globe for Drama and already got five Oscars by the time Best Director/Picture were announced. I certainly don't think "no one really though it would win".

Of course if you look up the statistics, that's what will come up, but this decade hasn't been kind to nominees-leaders. The Aviator, BBM, FOTR...

since 1990

2003 - most noms won
2002 - most noms won
2000 - most noms won
1999 - most noms won
1998 - most noms won
1997 - most noms won
1996 - most noms won
1995 - most noms won
1994 - most noms won
1993 - most noms won
1992 - most noms won (tied)
1990 - most noms won

It didn't work for the Color Purple, so I think it depends, the Academy just made a point about race with Crash.

Meh, I don't think the "race card" is much of a hand. Its one card, not a five set. Dreamgirls has alot not going for it as well, including that two of its three female leads are popstars under the age of 21. There's a bit of undrestanding that the young ones still have their entire careers before them, and its not like anyone in the Academy feels they exactly "owe" any love to Foxx at this point.

On the other hand, the Academy is notoriously losing youth audiences, and may very well go in for a couple pop-culture young actresses provided they actually do a decent job.

A nom? Probably. Its hitting the last leg of the year and there has been nothing promising a strong challenge. A win? Probably, nay, definately not.

In addition, for all the gossip machine, the trailer for this, dare I say it, looks incredibly mediocre. I don't know where the production budget went, unless everyone of those scenes failed to make the couple minutes of trailer.

And as an aside, Beyonce's roles in past movies may not have been more than skin deep, but I found her to be quite a natural, and definately not someone who is hesitant or has poor timing.

Meh. Its still anyone's guess. The Academy has given heavily "ethnic" casts the go ahead before, and its most always been in musicals (Ray, West Wide Story, etc) but it hasn't been that often. Mostly because such productions tend to have less access to budget and resources in the first place. But now that this is changing, I anticipate the production and reception divide getting smaller and smaller.