I actually kinda see The Queen resembling Capote as well. Helen Mirren is receiving glowing reviews for her work in that, and the movie itself isn't getting bad reviews either. Depending on the strength of Helen Mirren's nomination, The Queen might be nominated for Best Picture.

I'm curious if Demi Moore, who has NEVER received an Oscar nomination, has a big enough part. (not that it mattered with William Hurt last year) She play's an alcoholic, so she's got that going for her, as well as a body of good career work, so she's a very strong contender for some recognition.

It wouldn't shock me, really. She could easily end up being the Matt Dillon of the picture if her performance stands out enough. I found it amusing that Sharon Stone was also getting good reviews, but then again, she did once get an Oscar nomination, so it's not like she can't act when she wants to.

And Sharon Stone could really use some career respect after all she's done to lose it.

I'm thinking The Queen and Elizabeth are a better comparison. To say Capote made it into the BP contest purely on Hoffman's shoulder's is to ignore it was one of the highest reviewed films of the year. It was the only film of the five nominees to go 100% CoTC, and it stayed north of 90 even amongst near 200 compiled reviews. It had #1 picks second (and just one shy) of Brokeback, and it had an unrecognized American actor (not a Anglo-foreign one like the Australian Blanchette or British Mirren. Mirren has also been nominated twice before, including Gosford Park.

She might pull The Queen to a bp nom, but with only warm reviews compared to Capote's hot ones (I'll argue early WoM of Capote was incredible), she might settle just for acting noms. Elizabth was pretty rare, but they both are "period pieces", albeight different eras, which always helps because production value, costume, etc is really high caliber.

Indeed. Her career choices after Casino were bizarre.

Emilio Estevez just might win the Oscar for Best Picture, Best Director, and Best Orginal Screenplay. Who would have ever dreamed such a thing was possible?

Satan?

Bobby seems like one of those films that could get BP nomination but just as likely missing out on the BD nomination. If Estevez does somehow get nominated though, then I see Scorcese getting a nomination too and then he loses again to an actor-turned-director again in Estevez.

Marty could conceivably be facing off against Clint Eastwood, Robert De Niro, Emilio Estevez, AND Mel Gibson.

Mel Gibson? In what world? At this point there is a bigger likelihood of Osama bin Laden handing himself in to the CIA than Gibson being nominated.

Hey, stranger things have happened. I didn't say I expected it, and I'd be shocked, but you never know how many friends he has that would rally behind him. I wouldn't bet my life on him not being able to pull something off, after all, he did pull off Braveheart's Oscar and Passion of the Christ's box office when nobody would have conceived it. God is on his side!

No. Just no. I'd bet a LOT of money against that.

Oscar hopefuls "Babel," "Venus," "Little Children," "Last King of Scotland," "Catch a Fire," "Infamous," "Volver" and others faced their first, tough kudos test this past weekend when they made their U.S. debuts at the Telluride Film Festival in Colorado.

The verdict?

"I think 'Venus,' 'Babel,' 'Volver' and 'Little Children' are in," says Anne Thompson, Deputy Film Editor of Hollywood Reporter.

"'Infamous,' 'Catch a Fire' and 'Last King of Scotland' were well received by industry audiences, but I'd put them in the category of those films that have to play every single card perfectly -- do well with the critics and their critics' awards at the end of the year, get into the Golden Globes -- in order to land on their feet inside the Oscar race," Thompson added.

Pete Hammond, film critic for Maxim and an Oscar contributor to Variety, agrees with the Oscar assessments of "Babel" and "Volver."

He calls the reception of "Little Children" -- the tale of a lonely housewife (Kate Winslet) who has a secret affair --"extremely positive," but warned, "There were definitely polarizing factors" involving its subplot of a sex offender."

Reaction to "Last King of Scotland," about Idi Amin's brutal rule of Uganda, "exceeded my expectations," he adds. "Terrific response. Huge buzz." And "lots of people" gave anti-Apartheid drama "Catch a Fire" "very positive notice," he says.

The Truman Capote biopic "Infamous," which follows the same plot as last year's best actor champ "Capote," was "well received," says Thompson.

"Some liked it better than 'Capote,' some people didn't -- lots of discussions if Toby Jones is better than Philip Seymour Hoffman. Some people liked Sandra Bullock (as novelist Harper Lee), some didn't. Everybody thought Daniel Craig (as murderer Perry Smith) was very good, though there were titters about James Bond kissing Capote," she added.

Many Oscar watchers expected past best actress champ Nicole Kidman to emerge as a top rival again for her portrayal of photographer Diane Arbus in "Fur," but the fest consensus was that her role isn't showy enough to get voters' attention.

The film is expected to do well on the art-house circuit, but Hammond believes "it's more Robert Downey's film than Nicole's." Downey portrays a strange, fictitious, masked man who spellbinds Arbus.

Clearly, the biggest Oscar story at Telluride was Peter O'Toole in "Venus." The esteemed British actor is not only overdue for a win, but he's the award's biggest loser (7 defeats).

"That movie is tailor-made for the academy since it's about an aging actor -- a big plus considering that group's demographic," says Hammond. "It also has all of the Oscar ingredients. O'Toole gets to run the gamut. We see him act other roles as an actor and that's important because voters make up the largest voting bloc. And without revealing some key plot points, what happens to him in the film happens to many Oscar-winning characters. There are also strong Oscar possibilities for the supporting cast. Vanessa Redgrave has three great scenes. Leslie Phillips is outstanding -- he plays O'Toole's contemporary and a fellow actor, whose grand-niece is the target of O'Toole's affections."

After debuting to huzzahs at Cannes, "'Babel' came in with a lot of expectations and delivered," says Thompson about director Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu's ("21 Grams," "Amores Perres") tale of tragedy befalling an American couple (Brad Pitt, Cate Blanchett) traveling in Morocco.

"Volver," starring Penelope Cruz as a ghost-beset mom, followed up on its earlier success at Cannes, too, with an enthusiastic reception in Colorado.

A sleeper that popped at the fest was "The Lives of Others," a German movie about lovers being spied upon in Communist East Germany that may be a major contender for best foreign film. "It was the one movie that had the most buzz of all," says Hammond. "That came out of Telluride in a big way."

Mav, have you been living under a rock? Are you unaware that Mel Gibson just told the jewish community to fuck themselves, a community which has a large store in Hollywood. Mel has no chance in hell of being nominated. Getting one for Apocalypto would be almost impossible anyways, and then there was... the incident... ahaha.

Yep, I agree, and A foreign speaking sub titled Jesus movie with no big stars had no way that it was going to be a hit at the box office. Hindsight is 20/20. We don't know the whole story behind anything. We know what the media says. If there was anybody who knew not to pay attention to what they say as 100%, it would be members of the academy, whom I'm sure he's made some friends in. That gives him about 3% chance, I would say.

That film was based on the biggest bestseller of all-time.