Try around 185 mil.

no it wont. id be surprised if it fell below 2000.

which as i recall, you said it what it would be getting "tops" a few weeks ago .

How many theatres do you expect it to lose this upcoming weekend? Rememeber when you said it won't drop anywhere close to 1,000 theatres last weekend?

Well if SR follows the same weekday pattern as last week it should do something like this

Monday: 1,029,600
Tuesday: 1,044,014
Wednesday: 958,405
Thursday: 1,042,559

So by the time Friday rolls around it would stand at 182,501,578 million.

It will lose a some theaters and some IMAX showings as well to Ant Bully this weekend so I think a drop around 42% is likely.

Weekend: 4,476,000(-42%)

So by the time Monday rolls around I think SR will stand at 186,977,578 and would need a 2.91 multiplier from there on out to get to 200 million. I think it will get there but it will be a snail's crawl. I don't think WB will bother with a Labor Day expansion though, because SR will already be there.

Ay, I messed up on the math before, thinking 78 + 8 was 184. So it will end up at 186-187.

Still won't be enough though.

And by the way Speevy, it would need a 3.9 multiplier. Remember that the weekend gross needs to be added into the multiplier as well, it's 17.5 / 4.476 not 13 / 4.476.

Did not know that. Thanks.

That changes things a lot I think. A 3.9 multiplier is going to be very difficult. I think WB will need that Labor Day expansion and milk every penny out of SR. Even with the expansion, Lector may be right on the ball with a 198 million prediction.

182,501,578 million

Thursday: 1,042,559 ok take that +25% then give 3.9 multipler = 5,082,475 weekend-33% yall

total be 187.5, with over 190 million heading into da weekend and then 3.4 million more for round 194...guess itll only get another 4million hmmm? yeah i guess.

So...ummm...why should it increase more next Friday than last and why should it have a bigger weekend multiplier?

1. less competition
2. its the same im it go tthis weekend. 7.5/1.9=3.9

7.46/1.97 = 3.79

Heh. excel called Lecter biased. Irony.

Seriously, excel, Lecter never said it's a a bad drop. Of course the big topic of discussion is Pirates' excellent third weekend hold, despite having, you know, the biggest opening ever. You're basically saying that it'll never drop over 40% again in the rest of its run. It stands at $178.4 million. If the dailies follow the exact same pattern as last week (since apparently, you think the Friday increase will be higher for someone reason and the multiplier will get much better than it already has), we're looking at $1.007 million on Thursday. After that, a 20% Friday increase (it's going to lose more theaters this weekend, that's inevitable), a massive 50% increase on Saturday and a 22% decrease on Sunday (just to even it out) will give it $4.42 million for the weekend, another 40% drop. And it'll stand at $186.85 million. If it has 35% drops for the rest of its run, it'll just make $200 million total. But you're being unrealistic if you think it won't have one drop over that in the next four weeks. And I'm sure you also believe that it'll stay above 2000 theaters for the next four weeks, right? No! Increase the number of theaters! Just drop the bias, because in the end, $200 million is still a faaaaaaar cry from $250 million and much closer to Lecter's prediction of $201 million.

Heh, there's a reason why I called you one of the saner Superman fans

I'm certain Clerks II will be lower. I think POTC2 will be higher. I actually think Devil Wears Prada will reach 130m. Otherwise I just about agree. Great article.

Well I compared Clerks to Jay and Silent Bob and that one finished with a multiplier of just above 2.7 and that with significantly worse WoM. I didn't realize it got the Labor Day boost, but then again, it also couldn't enjoy the summer weekdays throughout its run.

And thanks!

I think your Little Man projection is a bit high....$66 m too high.

Well reasoned presentation. Enjoyed reading it.

Nice projection on Inconvenient Truth. That doc just keeps trudging along. It would be hilarious if Al Gore won an Oscar.

You bastard. You put Superman *two million* shy of 200 on purpose. Hilarious twist of the knife!

Well, where'd be the fun if I didn't?

The Oscar for Inconvenient Truth would go to Davis Guggenheim, though, I think.

And after it inches past 200. You can bump up the 200 million thread and laugh at every single one of the members

Shit, if Magnus doesn't, I will! Kill, you and I can rejoice in our absolutely sane predictions.

Good thing my prediction was exactly $201 million