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Lady in the Water (Warner Bros., July 21)

Author	Message
BJ Killing With Kindness Joined: Mon Oct 11, 2004 8:57 pm Posts: 25035 Location: Anchorage,Alaska	this has no chance at topping 100m. BJs Prediction: 25m \| 85m _________________ The Force Awakens
Fri Jul 14, 2006 1:27 pm

Joker's Thug #3 Extraordinary Joined: Sun Oct 24, 2004 2:36 am Posts: 11130 Location: Waiting for the Dark Knight to kick my ass	Variety gave it a negative review and HR gave it lukewarm at best. Looks like mixed reviews are in store. _________________ "People always want to tear you down when you're on top, like Napoleon back in the Roman Empire" - Dirk Diggler
Mon Jul 17, 2006 12:57 am

A. G. Draughty Joined: Tue Oct 19, 2004 9:23 am Posts: 13347	23m/65m. I think people have had their fill of M Night. I read an interview with him at comingsoon.net that was incredible in how self-important he sounded.
Mon Jul 17, 2006 1:31 am

RB652 Harry Potter and the Half Blood Prince Joined: Sun Nov 07, 2004 12:23 pm Posts: 403 Location: New York City	22 million opening weekend 65 million total.
Mon Jul 17, 2006 1:42 am

Dkmuto Forum General Joined: Fri Oct 22, 2004 1:00 am Posts: 6502	I'm thinking it's just not going to do all that well. It's one of my most anticipated for the rest of the summer, but I still don't feel like these ads are clicking with people.
Mon Jul 17, 2006 2:00 am

Speevy Veteran Joined: Wed May 11, 2005 9:12 am Posts: 3139	Some of these predictions seem a little low. M. Night still has plenty of fans who will show up opening weekend and I just don't see the movie dropping over 50% from the Village, regardless of how poorly it was recieved. There is no way this will open up as low as Little Man and You, Me, and Dupree. The other point is that we haven't had this kind of fantasy/drama/thriller in a very long time. This could open up to a very decent number and of course the run will depend on the movie it is. The Village got about a 2.3 multiplier, and that was absolutely hated, so I don't see why this won't come out with a 2.5 multiplier at the worst. The final gross will depend on the quality, but I see no reason why the opening weekend will be any lower. 30/80
Mon Jul 17, 2006 2:09 am

baumer72 Mod Team Leader Joined: Sat Oct 16, 2004 11:00 pm Posts: 7087 Location: Crystal Lake	Speevy wrote: Some of these predictions seem a little low. M. Night still has plenty of fans who will show up opening weekend and I just don't see the movie dropping over 50% from the Village, regardless of how poorly it was recieved. There is no way this will open up as low as Little Man and You, Me, and Dupree. The other point is that we haven't had this kind of fantasy/drama/thriller in a very long time. This could open up to a very decent number and of course the run will depend on the movie it is. The Village got about a 2.3 multiplier, and that was absolutely hated, so I don't see why this won't come out with a 2.5 multiplier at the worst. The final gross will depend on the quality, but I see no reason why the opening weekend will be any lower. You're talking to one of his biggest fans right here. I loved SS and UNB. I thought Signs was stupid yet I still ran out to see The Village and then hated that. I am one of the Night fans that will wait for DVD for this film. Night is a great film maker, but he also seems like he is hit and miss. Signs was one of the most poorly written films I have seen and the Village's twist was so stupid that it made a lot of people angry. That is why i think it will do small numbers. 30/80 _________________ Brick Tamland: Yeah, there were horses, and a man on fire, and I killed a guy with a trident. Ron Burgundy: Brick, I've been meaning to talk to you about that. You should find yourself a safehouse or a relative close by. Lay low for a while, because you're probably wanted for murder.
Mon Jul 17, 2006 9:08 am

Dr. Lecter You must have big rats Joined: Sat Oct 16, 2004 4:28 pm Posts: 92093 Location: Bonn, Germany	I think Shyamalan is a great director, but just not as good of a writer. He should let others write his screenplays. I love The Sixth Sense, it's in my all-time Top 25 and I really, really like Signs. It is flawed, but very suspenseful and never boring. Unbreakable was a big let-down to me, but it had its good sides too. The Village was just flat-out bad (save for Bryce Dallas Howardd's performance) Lady in the Water will suffer under a marketing that doesn't make the film attractive in the least. If anything, The Village had excellent, creepy marketing that propelled its opejing to $50+ million despite not javing big stars. Lady in the Water just can't get to the point. What is it? Fairy tale? Fantasy? Horror? Shyamaln has fans and as I mentioned often before IF there is any director's name in Hollywood other than Spielberg who can attract audiences on the name alone, it'd be Shyamalan. His name will prevent this from bombing completely. It should still underperform, though. Opening weekend - $28.1 million Total gross - $70.5 million _________________ The greatest thing on earth is to love and to be loved in return!
Mon Jul 17, 2006 9:56 am

baumer72 Mod Team Leader Joined: Sat Oct 16, 2004 11:00 pm Posts: 7087 Location: Crystal Lake	Now that is a more realistic prediction Doc. Although if the film is not that great, and it looks, not that grea, then i think it could stall big time. _________________ Brick Tamland: Yeah, there were horses, and a man on fire, and I killed a guy with a trident. Ron Burgundy: Brick, I've been meaning to talk to you about that. You should find yourself a safehouse or a relative close by. Lay low for a while, because you're probably wanted for murder.
Mon Jul 17, 2006 10:00 am

Dr. Lecter You must have big rats Joined: Sat Oct 16, 2004 4:28 pm Posts: 92093 Location: Bonn, Germany	Well, I just can't imagine him pulling off a movie with that bad of WoM as The Village twice in a row... If that happens, though, his next film won't pass $50 million. _________________ The greatest thing on earth is to love and to be loved in return!
Mon Jul 17, 2006 10:01 am

baumer72 Mod Team Leader Joined: Sat Oct 16, 2004 11:00 pm Posts: 7087 Location: Crystal Lake	Dr. Lecter wrote: Well, I just can't imagine him pulling off a movie with that bad of WoM as The Village twice in a row... If that happens, though, his next film won't pass $50 million. My logic is that even though Signs did very, very well, it was a very poorly written film. And that has carried over. I agree that it was suspenceful and even downright scary at times, but with some of the bad taste from that film left over and the obvious distain for Village, it will cause this film to underperform. I could see it doing less than Poseiden. _________________ Brick Tamland: Yeah, there were horses, and a man on fire, and I killed a guy with a trident. Ron Burgundy: Brick, I've been meaning to talk to you about that. You should find yourself a safehouse or a relative close by. Lay low for a while, because you're probably wanted for murder.
Mon Jul 17, 2006 10:03 am

Dr. Lecter You must have big rats Joined: Sat Oct 16, 2004 4:28 pm Posts: 92093 Location: Bonn, Germany	If WoM is poisonous, then maybe. I see an opening of $25 million at least, though. _________________ The greatest thing on earth is to love and to be loved in return!
Mon Jul 17, 2006 10:07 am

Rolling Thunder Forum General Joined: Fri Nov 19, 2004 12:11 pm Posts: 9148 Location: Kentucky Bluegrass	After "The Village", I'm going to hold off on this until I hear what the WOM is. At best, it may be a rental. If others are equally MNS gunshy, this may not make it to $30M this weekend. The latest trailer is much improved, but it's still far from moving, IMO.
Mon Jul 17, 2006 10:09 am

Dr. Lecter You must have big rats Joined: Sat Oct 16, 2004 4:28 pm Posts: 92093 Location: Bonn, Germany	Final Predictions: Opening weekend - $27.8 million Total gross - $65.5 million That was before Yahoo Reviews, though... I think it will top out under $60 million now. _________________ The greatest thing on earth is to love and to be loved in return!
Sat Jul 22, 2006 1:11 am

DP07 The Thirteenth Floor Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 2:26 am Posts: 15573 Location: Everywhere	DP07 wrote: O wrote: The marketing is taking a new angle it seems: SHYAMALAN BLASTS DISNEY EXECS IN NEW BOOK Friday, June 23 2006 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- A new book, The Man Who Heard Voices: Or, How M. Night Shyamalan Risked His Career on a Fairy Tale, due to be published on July 20, will describe director Shyamalan's conflict with Disney studio executives and his decision to leave the company that had produced his successfully thrillers, beginning with 1999's The Sixth Sense, the Los Angeles Times reported today (Friday). The book, by Sports Illustrated writer Michael Bamberger, is reportedly particularly tough on Disney production President Nina Jacobson, quoting Shyamalan as saying that he "had witnessed the decay of her creative vision right before his own wide-open eyes." Later Shyamalan says that over the years, he had concluded that Disney "no longer valued individualism ... no longer valued fighters." Eventually he left the studio after Jacobson and others assailed his script for Lady in the Water, which was eventually produced by Warner Bros. and is due to be released on July 21. I'm pretty sure Disney will be the financial winner. If they hated the script that much it probably means WOM will be awful again. hehe DP07 wrote: Positive Jon wrote: DP07 wrote: Positive Jon wrote: I will remain persistant. DP07 is still with me, right? Opening: 25.5 Total: 74.2 (2.91) Yes. Could you be a little more. . .detailed? 19m/55m. So, I'm even lower. I'm feeling good about it, although I'm quite certain now that legs will be weaker.
Sat Jul 22, 2006 1:53 am

Jonathan Begging Naked Joined: Mon Oct 25, 2004 12:07 pm Posts: 14737 Location: The Present (Duh)	My final predictions (That I made before Yahoo, as evidenced by the opening ) Opening: 23.1 Total: 56.4 (2.44)
Sat Jul 22, 2006 1:58 am

Dr. Lecter You must have big rats Joined: Sat Oct 16, 2004 4:28 pm Posts: 92093 Location: Bonn, Germany	DP07 wrote: DP07 wrote: O wrote: The marketing is taking a new angle it seems: SHYAMALAN BLASTS DISNEY EXECS IN NEW BOOK Friday, June 23 2006 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- A new book, The Man Who Heard Voices: Or, How M. Night Shyamalan Risked His Career on a Fairy Tale, due to be published on July 20, will describe director Shyamalan's conflict with Disney studio executives and his decision to leave the company that had produced his successfully thrillers, beginning with 1999's The Sixth Sense, the Los Angeles Times reported today (Friday). The book, by Sports Illustrated writer Michael Bamberger, is reportedly particularly tough on Disney production President Nina Jacobson, quoting Shyamalan as saying that he "had witnessed the decay of her creative vision right before his own wide-open eyes." Later Shyamalan says that over the years, he had concluded that Disney "no longer valued individualism ... no longer valued fighters." Eventually he left the studio after Jacobson and others assailed his script for Lady in the Water, which was eventually produced by Warner Bros. and is due to be released on July 21. I'm pretty sure Disney will be the financial winner. If they hated the script that much it probably means WOM will be awful again. hehe DP07 wrote: Positive Jon wrote: DP07 wrote: Positive Jon wrote: I will remain persistant. DP07 is still with me, right? Opening: 25.5 Total: 74.2 (2.91) Yes. Could you be a little more. . .detailed? 19m/55m. So, I'm even lower. I'm feeling good about it, although I'm quite certain now that legs will be weaker. Yeah, one of my summer guarantees was Lady in the Water making less than $60 million. Looks like I might be spot on _________________ The greatest thing on earth is to love and to be loved in return!
Sat Jul 22, 2006 2:00 am

Cotton Some days I'm a super bitch Joined: Sun Oct 24, 2004 7:22 pm Posts: 6645	I saw it tonight, and there weren't that many people in the audience. Not even close to being half-full.
Sat Jul 22, 2006 2:09 am

Shack Devil's Advocate Joined: Sun Jul 31, 2005 2:30 am Posts: 40596	DP07 claims another one... Bastard. _________________ Shack’s top 50 tv shows - viewtopic.php?f=8&t=90227
Sat Jul 22, 2006 2:35 am

O Extraordinary Joined: Sun Jul 10, 2005 1:53 pm Posts: 12197	Made a month ago: O wrote: New prediction: Opening day: $8.46 m 3day weekend: $21.2 m Total: $57 m I should have went with my gut, as I brought up the opening weekend a bit late this week. Here's another quote of mine: O wrote: I'll be completely honest, I don't know HOW this can do well. It has so many things against it. - It's coming off of a film which had the 2nd worst legs ever for $50 m + openers (behind only the Hulk). - Less known stars than M. Night's usual. - BV dumped M. Night over the project, and WB took it over instead. Something about that isn't encouraging... - Bad wom for the Village. - Confusing marketing. - Not a thriller apparently, and alot of people will go to see with the wrong expectations, which will only hurt its wom. - Bryce Howard's presence is another direct link to the Village. - People tired of his films being the exact same style each time. The only thing that can save this film imo is quality, and legs if its a superb film. Well, I was way off on Superex (but in hindsight, there was just too much competition), but at least I was right about Lady In The Water, when $100 m was getting thrown around by many as a total...not off of Village's multiplier, that was for sure...
Sat Jul 22, 2006 12:09 pm

MGKC --------- Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 10:42 pm Posts: 11808 Location: Kansas City, Kansas	MG Casey wrote: Opening: $17.5 million Total: $55 million Nothing spectacular, but better than the average scary movie gross. Bah!!! Why did I go with $22 million?? And this was on the first page, too.
Sat Jul 22, 2006 4:30 pm

baumer72 Mod Team Leader Joined: Sat Oct 16, 2004 11:00 pm Posts: 7087 Location: Crystal Lake	WEll, I called this one as well ( although I did say that Super Ex would open well so take it for what it is). I did say that this would open to 22 mill, and that is even going to be high. I feel good about my prediction and the reasons behind it. The Village angered so many people that this film was doomed. And toss in the confusing marketing and terrible commercials, and you have a recipe for a bomb. _________________ Brick Tamland: Yeah, there were horses, and a man on fire, and I killed a guy with a trident. Ron Burgundy: Brick, I've been meaning to talk to you about that. You should find yourself a safehouse or a relative close by. Lay low for a while, because you're probably wanted for murder.
Sat Jul 22, 2006 7:28 pm

zingy College Boy Z Joined: Mon Oct 11, 2004 8:40 pm Posts: 36662	Yeah, good call. I thought two years was enough to get over The Village, but most people haven't, I guess. And the "a bedtime story" aspect might have been a turn-off.
Sat Jul 22, 2006 7:41 pm

Dr. Lecter You must have big rats Joined: Sat Oct 16, 2004 4:28 pm Posts: 92093 Location: Bonn, Germany	Well, as I see it now, it is heading towards a $17-18 million weekend. Should drop at least 10% on Saturday, maybe more. Next weekend, it will not die like The Village, I suppose...because of the much smaller opening, but a 60% decrease will likely be in store. Honestly, I don't think it'll pass $45 million now. The absolute ceiling will be $50 million, but it won't make it there. Current projection - $44 million Then again... Unbreakable's total gross droped 67.6% from The Sixth Sense. The Village's dropped exactly 50% from Signs and this should drop around 60-62% from The Village. Looks like huge drops from his previous films are normal for Shyamalan If the next movie manages to increase the way Signs increased over Unbreakable (which won't happen, it is just hypothetical), it should make around $105 million. _________________ The greatest thing on earth is to love and to be loved in return!
Sun Jul 23, 2006 3:40 am

DP07 The Thirteenth Floor Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 2:26 am Posts: 15573 Location: Everywhere	Smaller openings never help the legs. If anything they hurt since there are fewer sellouts opening weekend so less business is pushed to the next week. Large openers tend to be frontloaded because the type of movies to open big are sequels and others that are also the type to have a rush. But whatever the opening frontloaded movies drop if it's 100m (X3), 38m (AVP), 27m (Underworld 2), or just over 11m (ATL). Also, it will lose theaters faster then The Village. The only thing that might help the legs would be WOM that's not as terrible as The Village. However, I wouldn't be surprised by a total of 35m.
Sun Jul 23, 2006 7:13 am
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Lady in the Water (Warner Bros., July 21)

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