07 is going to flat out OWN Spidey, Pirates, Potter 5, Narnia, Shrek, Ratouille, Transformers, RH3, NT2, Battle Angel, and the lsit of BO hits goes on its like digging into a bottomless hole of nothing but gold.

i dont get why people think that if IJ4 ever happens it will make so much money, no one cares anymore. people would find the whole thing rather laughable, if IJ4 did somehow magically manage a 2007 release, then Harrison Ford would be 65 when it comes out. It would be like Murder, She Wrote or something. Also, it's not like Ford is a big draw anymore. Just cause the IJ movies were popular in the 80's, 20 years ago, doesnt translate to 400mil today. It translates to a complete lack of interest.

For 2003, IJ box set I believe was #5 on DVD sales for the year for all DVD's. There is still quite a bit of interest for this film.

A lot of smaller hits should helps things as well.

RESIDENT EVIL: EXTINCTION, HOSTEL 2 and SAW IV.

i don't doubt that IJ has fans, they bought the box set in droves, but i dont seem getting excited over another movie in the franchise. It would be 20yrs in between movies, Ford is no longer a draw, Ford will be a senior citizen, and it's not like the first 3 ended in a way that demands another. If/when a fourth is made, it would be completely uncalled for and pure fluff. I am not a fan of SW by any means, but at least there was all that talk of things past etc. IJ's fans from the 80's would be all grown up now, and i doubt they are clamoring for more. I'm not saying IJ4 would have a 5mil opening and finish with 9mil, just that if it does happen it won't make anywhere near 400mil, or 300mil. MAYBE 150mil, maybe.

Lets add the CGI Teenage Mutant Turtles movie in 2007. Looks like a March release. I think its good for $70m.

heres another one

It really does feel like we're in cycles!

1999/2004: Big years, big films. Sequels do really well. (1999: 4 $200 m films, 2004: 6 $200 m films)

2000/2005: Weaker years, mix of somewhat more original films.

2001/2006: Massive openings, and expanded potential, and huge frontloadedness of films.

2002/2007: Lots of big films, lots of sequels, VERY big years admission and revenue wise. 2007 is shaping up to be eerily similar to 2002.

Yes thats a good observation. Judging by that pattern - 2003/2008... and I can see that happening as 2008 is getting stronger and stronger and should get close to 2007 without passing it (ticket wise) just like 2003 and 2002.

2007 is mega. It just needs to be planned out properly. I still maintain Pirates should move either to mid June or to replace HP5 and take its regular July slot. Then mid range films like Oceans 13 and perhaps one of Evan Almighty or Chuck and Larry can move into the Memorial Day slot. Even "I Am Legend" if they can get it ready in time.

Mark my words, if the seventh Harry Potter book DOES come out next July before the movie, it will DEMOLISH records. It could very well take almost 20% of it's final domestic gross on it's opening DAY, let alone weekend (with a final gross of $300 million, it's more possible than impossible)

PotC3 - 430 (lack of screens due to SM3 and S3 will ultimately prevent it from passing DMC)
SM3 - 405
HP5 - 340 (absolutely horrible legs, 2.27 multiplyer)
S3 - 315
Rat - 270
Transformers - 225
RH3 - 175
Bourne - 165

With a LOT of films vying for those last two spots for the summer...Simpsons, O13, FF2( I so hope I'm wrong), Chuck and Larry, Evan. All potential 100-165 grossers.

Just Shrek 3, SM 3, HP 5, and Potc 3 make this year huge. All the others are side notes, but these 4 will control the year, which will be the biggest year ever in movies.

I think HP5 should make way for POTC3 to take its spot - so that it can move to November. That way - both those films - aswell as Spidey and Shrek will make more money.

What is slated for winter 2007 besides Beowulf? That seems like a good date to place Harry Potter at since it has been proven that it shines better for it during winter than summertime. The only bad thing is if HP moves away from winter, POTC2 may takeover the weekend after July4th like the previous 2 and to move away from the competative may season which would hurt Transformers alot more than HP would have

November 2
- Bee Movie
- Enchanted

November 16
- Beowulf
- The Golden Compass

December 7
- The Water Horse

December 14
- Ripley's Believe It Or Not

December 21
- Hairspray

December 25
- The Spiderwick Chronicles

December TBA
- The Ice at the Bottom of the World


Its a fairly solid so far - but I think they can slot it in the weekend before Thanksgiving. Though there are already 5 fantasy films in those 2 months. It just needs a bit of re-jigging. WB can call the shots as nothing listed is as big or proven as HP.

Alot of these movies I havent even heard about except for His Dark Material, Hairspray and Beowulf. They all seem very small scale compared to the summer movies

Ripley's probably isn't coming out.

Something will go to winter, I think it'll either be Harry Potter or Shrek. It'd be an ideal spot for either, really. Whichever goes will own the holidays, just because those months aren't too strong right now. My guess is that Harry goes to winter, and Pirates takes the July spot making everyone happy.

By the way, it'd be an odd choice, but I think F42 should go to winter too. If it stays in summer, it'll get squashed, at least it'll stand out in the holidays.

Pirates will keep it's spot and so will F42, i don't know why eveyone is so convinced they'll move.

It's more speculation/hopeful thinking. There is really no "wow" film for the holidays. Even this year's holiday line-up looks spectacular in comparison (which, IMO is very underwhelming after the past 5 or so years). There's nothing. Beawulf is the biggest film, and I don't think it could make it to 150 with actual competition. So, we should either expect a new movie to be anounced, or a change in the schedule. Moving Pirates to July and HP to November is really the best possible thing for both of the movies...Pirates's competition is reduced, and HP5 gets better legs and significantly less competition.

If HP5 moves to november and Pirates moves to its traditional release date of weekend after July 4th, I can only assume Shrek 2 moves to Memorial Day weekend

Nah I think F42 will do fine. Enough to be considered a HIT.

POTC 3 will do masive business in two weeks after that F42 will take the top spot.

Yeah I think FF2 can atleast do $120m. June isnt exactly as strong as the other months so it should have room to breath.

Yeah POTC2 should replace HP5 and HP5 move to November. Shrek can stay where it is really or if it moves to Mem Weekend that would allow to meadium sized films to occupy the weekend before and one to occupy the weekend after. It can really free things up. In fact if they can finish it in time, Bourne Utimatum could be perfect for a May opening.

I am thinking more like $180 million becasue It has silver surfer in it+FOX marketing+no movie on June 15th so it can end up doing Mr. and Ms. Smith OR The Day After Tommorrow type domestic boxoffice.

I think the lack of competition and the silver surfer aspect aswell as Fox's usual great marketing will help it open to around the same as the first one - but i cant see it holding up well enough to get $180m. But second superhero films are usually better than the first so hopefully this is the case with FF2+SS.

surfs up 300 million+