Na, if its a breakout hit I think the film can leg it.

Dirk Diggler is the man

BB defied the extreme gravity of the Batman franchise

At the sig.

I guess its tracking at $40m-ish at most. That may be good enough for $150m if its a good film. That could happen. $180m if it can open stronger.

Indeed

when pulling a BB a film only needs an excelent mutiplyer with an opening in the 40m-45m range

If Vice can get 40m OW, that would be the best thing I could hope for really. It would probably result in a total of around 120m, which would be solid, though it sucks that the budget was so huge.

Vice needs to defy all odds to get a multiplier of 4.5+, it's a movie driven by 17-30, it's gonna drop 50% in it's 2nd weekend.

I cant wait to see this film break out and bust 200m

26/83

the film that is destined to be the best of hte year pull in less than 100m, appalling.

It's happened all but one year since 1999 in my opinion.

Brians Miami Vice Prediction

Im going to raze my Prediction

Opening Weekend
Opening Day:14.65m
Saturday:15.97m +9%
Sunday:11.5m -28%
WEEKEND TOTAL:42.12m
Day 4:5.3m -54%
Day 5:4.876m -8%
Day 6:4.24m -13%
Day 7:3.95m -7%
5 DAY TOTAL:52.3m
6 DAY TOTAL:56.54m
Opening Week:60.5m
Second Weekend
Friday:6.52m +65%
Saturday:8.8m +35%
Sunday:6.6m -25%
SECOND WEEKEND TOTAL:21.92m -48%
Day 11:3.432m -48%
Day 12:3.2m -7%
Day 13:2.83m -12%
Day 14:2.675m -5%
Second Week:34.03m -43.5.%
14 DAY TOTAL:96.527m
TOTAL:150m
INTERNATIONAL:150m
WW :300m

3.55 multiplier

I mean hell, I'm fine with this prediction to.. Between 150-180 Million would be pretty good for a flick like this, at least breaking even.. I am surprised it is this expensive though.. The Speed boat alone was probably 30 Million they use in the movie..

I think Michael Mann only likes doing high budget films

1999: The Insider 90m
2001: Ali 107m
2004: Collateral 65m

http://uk.media.filmforce.ign.com/media ... 36949.html

http://uk.media.filmforce.ign.com/media ... 33570.html


Here are some Killer MIAMI VICE Pics from IGN..The bottom link is a pic very reminiscent of a scene in the movie HEAT in Deniro's Apartment on the Ocean.. This movie has Awesomeness written all over it and makes me want to spark up a Doob looking at them....

Damn, just form seeing the pics and the trailor you can tell Universal spent a ridiculous amount of money on this film

The trailer doesn't really portray the film as action-packed, though. Perhaps I just know better than the average person would, but I think the trailer has done a good job of mixing the action, drama and love aspect together.

It's more of an assumption that it's going to be non-stop action.

If MV does bomb, I guess the whole action thriller genre is pretty much done with and it may spell trouble for Casino Royale. Since after Collateral's release, XXX2,Stealth,16 Blocks, Hostage, Firewall, and MI3 all disappointed in the US

I suggest looking at the tv spots on the miami vice site for those who haven't yet. They are pretty good.

I predict about 35 opening, 115 total. Not much chance of a nomination for Gong due to the genre and timing of release.

Well, Collateral was high quality, which can't be said for the rest of those listed "films". I'm not saying that people will always shell out for quality, but it helps.

And Gong Li is not out of the running for an Oscar nomination for her performance (provided the early word on her being excellent is true). You need only look to the last Mann film, where Jamie Foxx scored a supporting nomination for a film in a similar genre, with a release date that is almost identical to Miami Vice's, to see that this is very much a realistic possibility.

As for a prediction:
$33.5 million opening
$111 million total

But what really matters is that this movie has a great chance of being in my top 5 at the end of the year, perhaps even at number 1.

Its pretty much dead compared to the genre that brought us countless Steven Segal movies, Die Hard, Lethal Weapon, Con Air, the Rock, Speed, a Jerry Bruckheimer action film, MI and Fugitive are dead

Miami Vice to me fits more into the Collateral/Bourne/Heat type action film than the mindless XXX2, Stealth, Hostage type.

Sadly, the 90s Rock/Con Air/Face Off/True Lies/Speed - over the top - but still good - films have run their course ... for now atleast.

The Segal/Van Damme flicks died along time ago.

I dont care who produced, directed or stars in this, I dont think anyone will care about this after opening weekend. I just dont care about it now. I'm thinking Dukes of Hazzard type numbers. It'll drop like a rock.

30mil opening 80mil final