A & C are far more likely scenarios than B. The problem with B is that in the DVD era, the only movie that has truly shown the legs required was MBFGW, which in the legs department actually benefited from not achieving a large number of theaters until late in its run. Which is to say, it built up demand for 200+M over the course of its run. I just don't see how a film can build that much demand within run now. I think you could replicate its run, but not Titanics.

I would say:
a) 75% chance of working. The gap is still pretty large, even if one factors in the fanatacism of star wars fans in this regard. OTOH, if that release got it close enough, they would push it over.

b) 5% chance by 2020.

c) 80% chance. This is either 100% or 0% if you make it a range from 2015-2025. Inflation will eventually allow one of these Front loaded blockbusters to do it.

I included 0% chance in c) because it would not suprise me if there were some major change to the way the movie business works in that span, and as I have no real thought on what that might be, I can't say if it would help or hurt. I just feel certain something will happen that shows its impact by 2020 the same way DVD did 2002-4.

It does have the best chance of any film since I agree. The only things going against it are more competition and more importantly the dvd era which cuts the number of repeat viewings. Shrek seems to be the only other film series that can cast as big a net on all demographics. Even LOTR - a film originally one would attribute to a predominantly male fanbase - attracted a strong number of females - thus allowing it to expand to almost $400m by ROTK.

This is true, but it started summer. Everyone did not want to see it when it came out; the buzz built over time. What started this buzz? I really think that it quickly became one of the best movies of all time to many, many people, causing it to become an absolute must-see for everyone.