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 Tuesday Numbers! 
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mondays are always infalted by the weekend and it fell quite nicley for having massive weekdays.

Other blockbuster films with massive weekdays usally fall up and down drastically.

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Wed Jul 12, 2006 4:14 pm
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Okay, Pirates is just pwning me majorly. I saw the RT rating and thought it would get $325. Is there any report on Pirates WOM yet? It doesn't seem to be the kind of movie to get lots of repeat viewings. But if there really is $400M worth of casual see-once audience, I guess you don't need the fanboy repeats. I never thought this would get close to Sith, much less Ep 1.

Disney's stock price went up on Monday, but it's going down today. Must be the oil prices and interest rates. :tongue:

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Wed Jul 12, 2006 4:20 pm
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I can't believe Pirates only dropped 13%!! That is an amazing drop, I was expecting at least a 20% drop. It's still on pace to challenge Shrek 2 record for highest second weekend ever with $72 mil. I think it will end up around 68 mil, but it can come close.

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Wed Jul 12, 2006 4:26 pm
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Erendis wrote:
Okay, Pirates is just pwning me majorly. I saw the RT rating and thought it would get $325. Is there any report on Pirates WOM yet? It doesn't seem to be the kind of movie to get lots of repeat viewings. But if there really is $400M worth of casual see-once audience, I guess you don't need the fanboy repeats. I never thought this would get close to Sith, much less Ep 1.

Disney's stock price went up on Monday, but it's going down today. Must be the oil prices and interest rates. :tongue:


Re: WOM... I think it's got an A- on cinemascore, and something like 90+% of opening weekend audiences rated it either very good or excellent.


Wed Jul 12, 2006 4:28 pm
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mdana wrote:
The Tuesday numbers aren't that great. It dropped 13% when almost everything went up by 10%. Still looks like Thurs. is deciding day. The numbers certainly aren't bad, but they really don't tell us anything. POTC2 might be in trouble, if Baumer thinks it will make $400m now, and I don't think he has ever been right in projecting a POTC number :tongue: ;)


That's funny, I was thinking the same thing. I actually thought that as I was typing that it is a shoe in for 400, I'd probably be wrong with this as well. I have muffed the numbers since the first one. Why would this one be any different now? :lol:

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Wed Jul 12, 2006 4:30 pm
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Snrub wrote:
Erendis wrote:
Okay, Pirates is just pwning me majorly. I saw the RT rating and thought it would get $325. Is there any report on Pirates WOM yet? It doesn't seem to be the kind of movie to get lots of repeat viewings. But if there really is $400M worth of casual see-once audience, I guess you don't need the fanboy repeats. I never thought this would get close to Sith, much less Ep 1.

Disney's stock price went up on Monday, but it's going down today. Must be the oil prices and interest rates. :tongue:


Re: WOM... I think it's got an A- on cinemascore, and something like 90+% of opening weekend audiences rated it either very good or excellent.


#24 all-time at yahoo. Pretty good.


Wed Jul 12, 2006 4:31 pm
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$68,059,486 for Prada in 12 days....who expected this?

I am so glad, and happy for this movie....$100M here we come!

Meryl's 3rd (Kramer Vs Kramer, Lemony Snickets) and Hathaway's 2nd (Princess Diaries).


Wed Jul 12, 2006 4:35 pm
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yea WOM is good.

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Wed Jul 12, 2006 4:35 pm
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Zingaling wrote:
Expected.

There's a $15,000 difference between Prada and Superman. That's pathetic for Superman.


Or just really, really good for The Devil Wears Prada. I love how this movie has been kicking all kinds of booty, it deserves it.

I still haven't seen Pirates of the Caribbean (tear). I probably won't for another week or so, incidentally.


Wed Jul 12, 2006 4:43 pm
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Last night I went to see POTC2 and there were loads of teenagers (more girls than boys) and their mommas plus a few scattered young couples. I think that's why Prada is doing well....it's getting the older adult audience who want to see a movie and POTC2 is not the type they'd see the first week out. Plus, old folks don't like to sit with teens!


Wed Jul 12, 2006 4:48 pm
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Excellent number by Pirates. No other way to say it. And I think we must also credit it for some of the nice rises seen throughout the rest of the top 10. I really think this is helping business in general.

Also - a somewhat random thought that I think folks who are concentrating on the drop % should at least give some consideration to:

It just made 15M+ on a non-holiday tuesday following a non-holiday monday. No July 4th extended weekends in sight. No Christmas eve, Christmas New Years in sight. Yes, I know its summer, but it just annihilated the Tuesday record by about 3M dollars. And that record was held by a brilliantly if relentlessly marketed opener. I think the raw numbers desrve to factored into some of the discussions here about legs and WOM. 15M dollars is a nice number for a weekend for all but the uber-blockbusters. My two cents - the raw numbers to me at least say this has good WOM, and excellent signs for legs, whatever legs may prove to mean in this era.


Wed Jul 12, 2006 4:55 pm
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Tuesday dropped 10% from last week..
Point being a holiday makes a bigger diff than Johnny.......

AND THAT'S A BASH>>>>>>>>>>>>>!!!

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Wed Jul 12, 2006 5:04 pm
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For your consideration:

HP3 drops -17.7/-24/-64.8/-14
POTC2 drops -20.4/-20.4/-48.7/-13.3

Tuesday as percentage of Friday
HP3-18.9%
POTC2-28.2%

Factoring in the fact that Sundays and Monday drops are much stronger in July than in June. I don't see a major difference in the two films. POTC2 has to get credit for opening so much stronger, but in terms of legs I don't see why POTC2 will have a huge increase over HP3. The two factors in its favor is it will have more Summer days when kids are out of school and able to go to the movies (in June it is a gradual effect, now it is in full force). Secondly, it won't have to deal with Shrek2 like HP3 did. POTC2 is considered the best movie playing right now according to Yahoo, that will help some too. If POTC2 had the same legs as HP3 it would end up at $360m. Right now I think it is headed for $385-400m, but I am not so sure it can get to the magic number.

POTC's Tuesday number is not much different than ROTS' first Monday. That is roughly comparable to yesterday's date, on its fifth day when most schools were in session ROTS made $1.4m less. Spiderman2 on its 7th day when it had already made more than $12m more than POTC has made so far made $12m, so I don't think the POTC number is that amazing, it is good but not that extraordinary compared to comparable films.

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Wed Jul 12, 2006 6:53 pm
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Is this the record for consecutive $15m+ days?

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Wed Jul 12, 2006 6:54 pm
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As for non-Pirates films:

Superman Returns is going down. I doubt it'll make more than $11.5 million this weekend. It'll struggle to $190 million total.

The Devil Wears Prada will definitely be ahead of Supes next weekdays, maybe even tomorrow, though. It should have a lower third weekend, but pull ahead in its fourth. I definitely see it reaching $110 million now, maybe even $120 million.

Cars is still doing very well. It already has 33 days above $1 million in a row and should have at least 9 other ahead of it. It's definitely passing X-Men: The Last Stand now. It'll pull ahead of The Da Vinci Code over the weekend. I expect no less than $245 million for the total, possinly $250 million too.

The Lake House keeps going. I still think my original $55 million projection will come true. It should finish close to $49 million by the end of the weekend.

Garfield: A Tail of Two Kitties jumping 30+% is weird :blink: Interestingly enough, it's having far better legs than the original, due to its low opening. It'll finish with a multiplier of a bit over 3.8.

A Prairie Home Companion still strikes me as a movie that had its release pattern messed up by the distributor. It should have expanded or gone wider to begin with. It'll finish close to $20 million, with a multiplier of over 4. Could have been more, though.

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Wed Jul 12, 2006 7:02 pm
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mdana wrote:
Is this the record for consecutive $15m+ days?


Spider-Man 2 had six above $20 million :D

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Wed Jul 12, 2006 7:03 pm
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Ha, Cars is going to end up being the #2 movie of the year for total domestic box office, and when the film opened, everyone was doom and gloom about how this was the end of Pixar. lmao. Pixar is still as strong as ever.

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Wed Jul 12, 2006 7:05 pm
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MikeQ. wrote:
Ha, Cars is going to end up being the #2 movie of the year for total domestic box office, and when the film opened, everyone was doom and gloom about how this was the end of Pixar. lmao. Pixar is still as strong as ever.

PEACE, Mike.


Well, just to brag a little here, here's my wrap-up the weekend Cars opened:
http://www.worldofkj.com/boxoffice/Wrap ... 9_2006.php

I saw it making $235+ million then I looks like I might end up in the $10 million range of the actual gross :D

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Wed Jul 12, 2006 7:09 pm
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Dr. Lecter wrote:
mdana wrote:
Is this the record for consecutive $15m+ days?


Spider-Man 2 had six above $20 million :D


Sorry, I meant with no holiday boost?

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Wed Jul 12, 2006 7:12 pm
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mdana wrote:
Dr. Lecter wrote:
mdana wrote:
Is this the record for consecutive $15m+ days?


Spider-Man 2 had six above $20 million :D


Sorry, I meant with no holiday boost?


Yeah, well, I am very sure Spidey would have had 5 consecutive above $15 million without a holiday boost as well. Not six, but definitely five. Sunday was the only real holiday and July 4th usually hurts more than it helps. Saturday being July 3rd didn't help too mch because, well, it was Saturday already.

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Wed Jul 12, 2006 7:14 pm
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It's hard to spin Cars' numbers as a bad thing (like some people do), but really, it's doing some great numbers after a somewhat underwhelming weekend. Bodes well for Ratatouille, which looks ten times better.


Wed Jul 12, 2006 7:14 pm
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Yeah. I wonder if Pixar's $200+ million streak ever ends. Toy Story 3 is almost a lock for $300 million already.

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Wed Jul 12, 2006 7:15 pm
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It'll end when they start making crappy movies heh, and I don't see that happening soon.

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Wed Jul 12, 2006 7:19 pm
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Well Cars is doing great, but its definitely not Pixar at the top of their game (will likely be 15-20% lower than the average admissions of the best five out of six predecessors. 5 out of their previous 6 releases would now adjust at $275 m and above, with only A Bug's Life around $229 m. So Cars is doing great, but it, along with Over The Hedge, definitely felt the sting of CGI overload of animated films.


Wed Jul 12, 2006 8:07 pm
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O wrote:
Well Cars is doing great, but its definitely not Pixar at the top of their game (will likely be 15-20% lower than the average admissions of the best five out of six predecessors. 5 out of their previous 6 releases would now adjust at $275 m and above, with only A Bug's Life around $229 m. So Cars is doing great, but it, along with Over The Hedge, definitely felt the sting of CGI overload of animated films.


I think thats a natural life cycle. The same thing happened with Disney 2D animation on a smaller scale. It was all upwards until the first summer release The Lion King and then they started to drop - but worse than the CGI flicks. Nemo representing Lion King. However, considering Cars was the 3rd major CGI flick in as many months and perhaps lost a bit of the female audience - it did incredibly well. I dont think Ratatouillie will be quite as strong next summer.

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Wed Jul 12, 2006 8:16 pm
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