Now I get it...DP07 fudged the numbers himself!

That sounds reasonable.

Um...To all those POTC 2 haters...:-D

Sony's marketing department went down after Stealth, Bewitched and XXX2 last summer, so I'm sure we'll start seeing some moves at WB in the next 30-60 days (particularly if Lady underperforms). It's long overdue.

For Superman or for Pirates?

Pirates

Odd. I wonder if Disney-USA has any control over marketing in other countries.

I can't even recall seeing the Pirates trailer in the theater. CLICK, HOWEVER IS BURNED INTO MY CORTEX UNTIL THE END OF TIME.

haha click was attached to everything...I remember Pirates being attached to I think 1-2 movies that I saw...but the trailer was all over Tv.

I now this was a couple pages ago, but I want to show evidence that movies with large openings tend not to have great multipliers in this day and age. Disregard the fact that POTC2 is a record breaker, and instead look at the fact that it is a 100 million + opener and a sequel. Here is a list from BOM of openers of 90 million or more and the % of total.


1 Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest 100.0%
2 Spider-Man 28.4%
3 Star Wars: Episode III - Revenge of the Sith 28.5%
4 Shrek 2 24.5%
5 X-Men: The Last Stand 44.4%
6 Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire 35.4%
7 Harry Potter and the Prisoner of Azkaban 37.5%
8 The Matrix Reloaded 32.6%
9 Harry Potter and the Sorcerer's Stone 28.4%

Note that I have disregarded ROTS and Reloaded because they were released on either Thursday or Friday, thus making the % total a little innacurate. Of the 9 90+ million openers, only 3 had multipliers of 3.0, only 3 of the nine. Further, 2 of those three, Spiderman and Harry Potter, were not sequels. Granted these two films do have large built-in fan bases, they had many things working in their favor creating a better multiplier. Although they did have large fan bases, they were non-sequels so the rush factor during the first weekend was slightly diminished, not greatly, but slightly. Also, both of these movies had holidays to slow down their falls. Spiderman had Memorial Day weekend and HP of course had Thanksgiving Weekend in it's second weekend. Even Shrek 2 had Memorial Day weekend in it's second weekend. Unfortunetely, there are no more holidays left that will actually help POTC2. It has none of the advantages that the other movies I just listed had. Therefore, a 3.0 multiplier with a 135 million opening weekend will not happen. I think a 2.8 multiplier is really the best it can get, assuming that WOM is good for this movie. However, even with a 2.8 multiplier it will still end with an incredible 378 million narrowly edging out Spiderman 2.

I posted this on May 27


June 1


June 11

I'm gloating big time, I don't care

it will get to 350 million for sure's!

That's why his hair has looked so funky lately

Well pirates has reached monster boxoffice status and is getting that huge media attention Spiderman got for its record breaking opening weekend. I think this will drive more people to the theater and such stoped this from a 60% drop.

Well well - that is a fabtastic performance from Pirates. The most I expected was $122m and not being a POTC supporter I had it pegged just below Spidey at $113m. I see it getting between $380 and $410m. Its a good film - much better than the 3rd. I still hope it moves from Memorial Day weekend though.

Awesome opening. Kudos to all thos that predicted high and to Disney - the studio that created the non-studio system we know now. WB is a disgrace. Ive been saying it for years.

Great for Cars and Click aswell!

WOW!!! freaking amazing.

too bad it'll be broken in less than a year.

and retaken

Nor do we, considering that most of the forum has been saying that since the beginning of the year.

How can you tell?

Im psychic!!! I meant first

Well I got shot down big time by some of these guys, so i just wanted to bring it back up.

It ISN'T (EDIT) very difficult for a decent movie that isn't of the urban or horror genre that attracts all demographics that opens in the middle of summer to reach a multiplier of 3.

Shrek 3 will take its Sunday record (as well as Shrek 2's Sat record). Spidey 3 or PotC3 might take the Friday record, but I highly doubt it. That will stand for a while. I'm gonna predict that Harry Potter 7 breaks it.

Serious! It just shows how big the fan base truly was. I didn't see the main Pirates trailer once in the theater. MI3, Poseidon, DVC, X3, and even before and after those films...no Pirates trailer. (Click, however.... )

Amazing opening for Pirates 2. It's awesome to see that it actually increased quite a bit from estimates. Fantastic. It could have $240-250 million by the end of next weekend. There was a sell-out for Pirates 2 at one of my local theaters today, so I think we might see a nice number for Monday.

Great drops for Cars and The Devil Wears Prada as well.