No, as I said, if the estimate holds, it'll be this way. If it's $140 million in three days, then I see it breaking the record with $193-194 million in 7 days.

140m makes 200m a lock. This is JULY.

I don't know about beating Spider-Man 2 until actuals come out, but it will not make $200 million in seven days. Guaranteed. With a $135 million weekend, it would need to follow Black Pearl's exact daily drops just to pass the mark by half a million.

I am wiht you lecter this is close enough where if the actuals are only a few million off it will do it. If it is over 136 million it would seem very very likely. If it is 140 it will do it but right now it needs 4 15 million days which would be very very close but i don't thinkit will pull itout. People still have to work!

still it will likely have the largest summer weekdays ever.

I guarantee 200m in 7 day

Okay, the hunt is on:
PIRATES needs an additional $56,450,807 in four days or $14,112,702 a day to break the record. Any new bets?

its gonna be close! serious it now has a good chance, this is no fanboy madness.

It'll come down to less than a million, but I'll say that it'll be just barely over.

it needs a massive monday like 15 million to do soo

SITH grossed $14,352,807 on its first Monday - and that was May...

it was a holiday in canada, and it fell 30% the next day!

One could easily argue that since it was May, people are busier in general with school/work/etc. July, people aren't as busy and, thus, have a better chance to see a movie on the weekend, limiting it's legs going into the weekdays.

I'm not saying I AM arguing that, but it'd be easy to do it.

btw: PIRATES 2 already scored the tenth biggest opening week after just three days!!!

1 192,085,360 4,152 46,263 Spider-Man 2
2 191,363,169 3,661 52,271 Revenge of the Sith
3 158,242,565 3,603 43,920 Matrix Reloaded
4 151,622,504 3,615 41,943 Spider-Man
5 150,139,984 3,703 40,545 Lord of the Rings 3
6 148,518,679 4,163 35,676 Shrek 2
7 146,283,069 3,858 37,917 Harry Potter 4
8 144,600,923 3,043 47,519 Passion of Christ
9 141,331,162 3,690 38,301 X-Men III
0 135,634,554 4,133 32,817 Pirates of the Caribbean 2

It'll be very close, but I went for "no"

$190-191 million in 7 days.

it can be near 4 or 5th today!

I thought school/work/etc occurred on weekdays, forcing May moviegoers to watch on weekends.

Monday: $17.7 million (-50%)
Tuesday: $15.9 million (-10%)
Wednesday: $14.3 million (-10%)
Thursday: $12.9 million (-10%)

Opening Week: $196.4 million

That's the best-case-scenario, I'd say. I think it'll most likely end in the $190-193 million range, so it'll be a really, really close. Looks like the Tuesday record is done for, though.

50% Monday drop? Best case? heh

It'll do it, because Disney will fudge the numbers on that call as well to ensure that the numbers have it breaking 200 in 7 days. Then in eight months from now, they'll alter them so that the real numebrs come out.

First Saturday- 43.33 mill
First week- 198.99

But we'll never see this because the Warren Commission works for Disney.

No matter how you look at it, this is a fantastic feat.

F4 dropped 57%

I think Pirates will drop 54-55% at best.

Black Pearl dropped 48%. I don't see how the drop will be better than that. No way.

I gotta disagree with this one. Weeklies are a different animal, due to the sliding % take figures on the contracts with the theater chains. To rob Peter to pay Paul on this one they'd have to take it from week 2. Which means they are taking money from one adjust to and sticking it into another - one which would be more favorable to them. No way the chains put up with that. This also would result in 10K fraud, and no studio is that dumb. The sanction would cancel the publicity. I have far more trust in the weeklies. My two cents.

Brian's First Week Prediction

Monday:19.1m -46%
Tuesday:16.04m -16%
Wednesday:15.08m -6%
Thursday:14.47m -4%

First Week:200.3m