I'm sure theaters will also deal with the sellouts a bit better. Adjust to add some capacity.

That's actually very smart to do so. I bet it will if it's close to 100m in two days, then all around the world will drop their freaking jaws...

Okay, if it did make about 12 mill for the midnight shows, then that puts it at about 43 mill for the Friday. If it falls 5%, then that gives it 41 mill, and that would be a drop of 25% from teh 55 mill. Does that seem possible? It does to me, so, I'm going to say that it won't make it to 100 in 2 days.

Yeah, it won't come close enough to 100 for Disney to fudge it.

Baumer

One of the causes for the drops on Saturday is because of Midnight Shows. If it were a weekday I would be right there with you.
Sith had a 21% increase on its saturday. that si with some demand eleviated. If it made 12 million on midnight shows and had 43 million Friday I would expect around 45-46 million Saturday or just about 100 million. Its sunday drop should be bigger though and be around 36-37 million.

I know what you're saying, but Sith also dropped 32% from Thrs to friday...i know it is a different scenario, but i just don't see a small drop on Saturday. 55 mill!!! How do you top that?

Well, it seems the naysayers were right...
So it's up to SPIDEY to do it next year...

$3 mill short. V)V soooooooo close.

goody I was right (though I would've been happy if it cleared it)

I don't see it happening next year. They all will come close like Pirates and fail.

One movie I definitely see making it is Harry Potter 7 (but I suppose some other one will make it before).

we shall see, we shall see. I can't wait for all those record-breaking top12 weekends next May

I think Spidey's OD will be slightly lower than Pirates'. Something around $52-54 million.

Pirates 3 might be higher with $58 million, but I really see 30% off on Saturday then, to $40-41 million.

Ok, I don't get it. We've been analysing box office stats now for about 4 years, most of us here anyway. And I'll admit that I never would have predicted pirates to be this big. But why now does Spidey seem like it can do this much on its opening day? The first two didn't. They were huge, but not Pirates huge. What makes you think that the third is going to do what the other two didnt? I'm confused.

Um, this is the same discussion once again. I'll give you some stats, you do the math

- Spider-Man opened to $114.8 million and made $403.7 million in the US (originally the third biggest first run movie ever)

- Spider-Man 2 made $40.4 million opening day (record back then) and crossed $200 million in EIGHT days. It finished with over $370 million.

- Pirates of the Caribbean made originally $306 million.

- X3 made $45 million opening day, "just" $10 million less than Pirates 2

- X2 opened to $85 million and made $215 million in the US, still the sequel opened HUGE

Don't forget, (average) ticket prices rose about 20 cent the last couple of years.

2002 $5.80
2003 $6.03
2004 $6.21
2005 $6.41
2006 $6.60?
2007 $6.80?

A $55.0m opening day in 06 Dollars would be worth $56.7m in 07...

If Spidey 3 managed the same OD increase from Spidey 2 as X3 managed from X2, it'll make around $58 million opening day. Not to forget that Spidey 2 opened on a Wednesday, wheras the third opens on a Friday again.

No way SHREK 3 will do $103m in two days and $150m in three days. SHREK 2 was a disappointment for many, many people, even the DVD sales were a disappointment for DreamWorks Animation...

Um, what?

I agree that it won't do $150 million opening weekend, but I don't know where you're getting the disappointment for people and disappointing DVD sales ideas from...

from his warped mind.
Shrek3 will RULE the boxoffice like it's predecessors.

well if your expecting to sell 40 milion dvds double finding nemo you are bound to get disapointed.

While i believe it sold a shitload of DVDs i remember reading something about them being disappointed by the sales. Probably because it sold less than Nemo (i think)...

I think spiderman 3 will be lucky to open over 120m

Eat this: (From Variety)
DreamWorks Animation is one step closer to putting last year's "Shrek 2" DVD debacle behind it.
The Securities and Exchange Commission's L.A. office recommended on Thursday that an investigation into Jeffrey KatzenbergJeffrey Katzenberg's toontoon studio be terminated with no enforcement action.

While the SEC itself still has to make a formal decision, recommendation makes it very likely that DWA will escape government sanction for failing to warn investors, before first-quarter earnings were announced last year, that returns on the "Shrek 2" DVD were running much higher than anticipated, causing the company to miss guidance.

DreamWorks Animation is still facing shareholder lawsuits over the incident, however.

lol they had high expectation for it. still sold alot of dvds in the end.
this won't effect Shrek3's OW gross.
marketing and quality will.