It's gotta do over $180m OW. I did some figures around ROTS opening to figure out what would topple Titanic. A sequel has never been #1. I think DVDs will take the sting out of it at the end if it gets close. I would look for a Shrek 2 over Shrek ratio, so $500m+ is very possible. Might be a lock for #2.

The original post is as dumb as they come. Look at the points made by the poster,

1. Narrow fanbase
2. Average moviegoer disinterest indicated by BS eye rolling.
3. No repeat value.

Only a moron would proclaim that ALL three apply to a movie that grossed $380M and had over 60 million auds in the US.

I largely agree. I think 180m is quite possible at this point.

how can it beat titanic, with those crappy reviews? a lot of people are going to see it once, but there wont be a lot of repeat viewings. this movie doesnt even have the potential to gross 400m.

It can't beat Titanic. It won't have the repeat business. Even if if makes 150 this weekend, it won't have the multiplier. DVD will kill it's chances. It can't and won't make 500 either. If the friday numbers are around 50-60 mill, then 400 is a opossibility, but i doubt even that.

I honestly think this thread was made very tongue in cheek, and that is cool because its fun to stir the pot. But being realistic, there is no way, absolutely none, that this film will outgross Titanic. It simply won't and can't sustain the numbers required to do so. It would ne 30-40% drops in the coming weeks to beat it. This will be so frontloaded, and there is nothing wrong with that.

I am not speaking for DP, but I think he is fairly serious. The comment I made last night was before I read the RT scores, so I am already backtracking from that post somewhat. The RT scores seem to indicate a movie that even if it opened huge $125m+ would have a hard time sustaining the legs needed to pass $400m. However, its IMDB is 7.9 compared to POTC's 8.0 and both have a B+ on Yahoo. Now, those numbers may drop in the coming days (theses votes for the new film are skewed towards hardcore fans of the series), and I will continue to monitor them. So far that there might be a divergence between critics and actual ticket buyers in the worth of this film. DP was stating according to Yahoo reviews it might have done over $70m (which I am not sure is possible) on Friday. If it had done that it could of had a $60m Sat, and a $50m Sun for a $180m weekend. A big tent pole sequel movie that would approach Titanic would have to make over $180m opening weekend unless it were over 3hrs. long. I think a multiplier over 3.4 is too much to ask for a film opening over $120m, 3.3 might be too high.

POTC is really weird in its demographis. Unlike LOTR, Star Wars, Spiderman or anything else you can mention this movie draws from almost every age, sex, and any demo you can think. I had an aunt that hadn't seen a movie in a theater in 20 years go see the first one. My cousins won't let their kids see PG-13 films, but they are going to let them see this because they loved it so on DVD, which was the first pg-13 movie they let them see. The first movie was really loved/great WOM, it had the best multiplier of 2003, and that is usually the sign of a sequel doing well (as long as it doesn't suck). I still think this could beat Shrek 2 if gets over $125m this weekend.

I say...Now it looks like it'll open at about 130-145 million...Give 130 million a 3x multiplier and you have a 390 million dollar finish...Give the same to 140 million and you have 420 million. I say it finishes right in between 400 and 430. Legs won't be too swell I don't think.

With its $140 million weekend, I think this should finish somewhere between Spider-Man and Shrek 2.

POTC is already SMOKING Titanic after its first day! What's to stop it from beating Titanic, really?





Oh......... right.

Yes I'm sure this thread was made tongue in cheek although with the awareness that there's a chance it could happen, even if not a big one.

1. Narrow fanbase = predominantly skew toward males
2. Most people I know (after living in 3 different states) think Star Wars is really dorky
3. I've only seen ROTS once. I used to be a huuuge fan, I even saw the other prequels several times in theaters, even more on DVD. I myself couldn't bare to watch it again. I don't know about others though.

Even with a $140m opening $400m would not be a lock, it just had huge up-front demand, 2nd weekend drop will likely be huge as well...

Like Spiderman 2? I think POTC could easily drop 55-60%, but that still puts it around $60m. Then another 45% drop and its at $33m. Then it could drop 40% and below, the rest of its run and do quite well. I don't think its a lock, I just think it is likely to do it.

This is huge speculation, but if it did follow Shrek 2's pattern over Shrek 1, it would end at $504 m.

Finally! Plan Z.

Like with hurricane names, they can start going to Greek letters...

Of course this thread was a joke.



Although......with a multiplier near 4 it could happen.

I'll let you know in a couple weeks whether it was tongue in cheek.

Obviously, simple things seem to be beyond your comprehension.

With a narrow fanbase, no general interest and no repeat value, ROTS must have done something incredible to make $380M.

Yes, it was named ROTS.

I could say the same thing about Harry Potter, but I'd be lying. It's called a large number of fans.

Yes, it was named ROTS. [/quote]

True

The original poster was pulled stuff of thin air regarding the three items he mentioned. No movie makes over $250M without a good chunk of all three items.

I thought it'd be interesting to look at what a potential Titanic topper would have had to make in each of the years since its release, to match its domestic gross, but in terms of the 1997 dollar. (Ex. $600 m in 2005 would be _ much in 1997).

1997 $600.1 m (It's hard to properly adjust prices, since Titanic made most of everything in 98). ($4.59)

1998 $587.3 m

1999 $542.2 m

2000 $511.0 m

2001 $486.7 m

2002 $474.1 m

2003 $456.8 m

2004 $443.6 m

2005 $430.4 m

2006 $417.85 m ($6.592 est)

2007 $405.7 m ($6.79 est)

2008 $394.1 m ($6.99 est)

So we're coming to a point, where in the next two years, the film that could top Titanic, might not even have been able to top $400 m in Titanic's year. Oh, that inflation!

it would not surprise me if Pirates 2 did.

For me, it all comes down to the 2nd Friday dropoff, and then I'll be able to join the $500 m club. (I'm currently in the $450 m club, sorry for letting you down!)

If POTC had an under 50% drop next Friday, including the midnights in the gross, then I'd say Titanic is definitely a possiblilty (ie an under 50% drop next week specifically).