I intended this thread to happen weeks ago, but I got too busy. Well, here it is:

It's going to happen. But why?

WOM and wide appeal

That's pretty much it. It has wider appeal even then Shrek or Spider-Man with older audiences, action fans, and comedy fans. It hits every demographic and people with every sort of taste in movies. It expanded it's fanbase on DVD...blah, blah, you've heard it all before.

-98% rated it very good or excellent in studio polling. That’s the highest I ever heard of outside of Finding Nemo (99%).
-4.2 at netflix which is excellent. More on this later.
-Fighting for 8th all time at Yahoo with ESB (I don’t count Nightmare Before Christmas since it will fall below soon. Movies often hit 500 reviews and enter the top 10, but then drop out.)
-A at Cinemascore. A bit more on this later.

I think that more or less proves that WOM was among the best seen in recent decades. This is also related to the fact that almost everyone can like it. It has wider appeal then Shrek as it attracts more adults, action fans, and older audiences. It’s wider then Star Wars since it has women as much as men. LOTR didn’t have comedy fans, the many who go to movies just for fun, and families to the same extent. It’s main competition here is Spider-Man, but that didn’t have quite as much comedy either.

Furthermore, all the indicators above show it’s true popularity when you look into them.

A at Cinemascore

How good is an A at cinemascore? This isn’t a complete list, but it’s every non-family movie I’ve ever found to have an A at cinemascore. Family films tend to have great grades with few being worse then A-. I suspect it’s because little kids give easy A+s.

A+
Return of the Jedi
Die Hard
Titanic
T2
Schinlder’s List
Lethal Weapon 2

A
Indiana Jones 2
Indiana Jones 3
Bad Boys
Bad Boys II
Independence Day
Shawshank Redemption
Seabiscuit
The Two Towers
Speed
Jurassic Park
Gladiator
The Patriot
Rush Hour
Rush Hour 2
Top Gun
Crimson Tide
True Lies
X2: X-Men United
Aliens
Forrest Gump
Saving Private Ryan
Apollo 13
Green Mile
Pirates of the Caribbean
Batman Begins

That’s obviously an impressive list. Even FOTR, The Matrix, and The Sixth Sense missed the cut. For the sake of comparison though there is no reason to have movies that did not have sequels. Furthermore, sequels themselves have an advantage given that cinemascores are done opening night when fans are out in full force. Plus, there tends to be little room after a sequel for the fanbase to expand. So, subtracting those films, here’s the list:

A+
Die Hard - Increase with sequel of over 40%

A
Bad Boys - Increase of over 110% for sequel
Speed - Sequel decreased almost 60%
Jurassic Park - Sequel decreased over 35%
Rush Hour - Sequel increased over 60%
Pirates of the Caribbean - ?
Batman Begins - ?

By historical standards those sequels did extremely well. JP’s decline is about average for the 90s and increases were rare. However, sequels have tended to do far better in recent years (proof of this below). So, the only real comparison is Rush Hour. Well, that or Shrek, but Shrek only had an A even with kids (opening day for the movie was almost all families; later in the run the movie had more teens and adults). All those franchises to increase, such as Meet the Parents, Bourne, Matrix, X-Men, and even LOTR, had an A- for the first film. If an A- is more then enough imagine what an A can do.

Number of Yahoo reviews

POTC will be the 6th sequel released to a movie that came after Yahoo’s current grading system started. The others were Underworld 2, Saw 2, Kill Bill 2, Scary Movie 4, and Harry Potter 4.

Review totals:
SM 3 - 48,196
SM 4 - 30,244 (62.8%) - Will increase to at least 70% with release of DVD.

Underworld - 36,107
Underworld 2 - 28,257 (78.3%)

Kill Bill Vol. 1 - 47,289
Kill Bill Vol. 2 - 41,577 (87.9%)

Saw - 25,378
Saw 2 - 28,140 (110.9%)

Harry Potter 3 - 99,355
Harry Potter 4 - 111,328 (112.1%)

As you can see the review totals tend to be similar between both, with it more often then not dropping. SM had a drop of that size because it declined at the BO as did Kill Bill. Assuming Pirates doesn’t do that it will likely have over 90% as many reviews as the original. Saw proves what you might suspect: that fewer people who see a movie on DVD grade it. The reason being that it’s more difficult to find the movie’s page. So, the sequel can get more reviews.

POTC will have at least 180,000 by the end of the year. By trying to project the sequel’s review total and ratio we can get it’s BO. I expect at least 140,000 reviews for POTC 2, although some of you might argue for as little as 125,000. I think 165,000 is likely with 200,000 being at the high end. For the ratio we can look at similar blockbusters:

Narnia: 287
King Kong: 303
HP 4: 384
Batman Begins: 364
WOTW: 273
Sith: 349
Fantastic Four: 267

I think the best comparisons are Narnia and Kong. Harry Potter and Sith have their hardcore fanbases, and Batman Begins has an internet audience in addition to adding fans on DVD. It should certainly be be between 260-350.

At the low end with 140,000 and a 350 ratio it would have 400m. With the likely 165,000 and 300 it’s 550m and with 200,000 it would be about 670m even with a 300 ratio. If you go with 250 it’s 800m, but that just seems too high. I’d say the 670m is near the max.

You might argue for 125,000 and a 400 ratio, but that doesn’t really make any sense. Even then it beats the original.

So, again, 400m is a lock as shown by the data.

Netflix

At Netflix obviously both the rating and number of reviews indicate the overal popularity of a film. So, I decided to try to score movies with a combination of the two. A rating of 2.8 is about as low as something can go, and I think it would indicate almost no fanbase. So, I subtracted that amount from each rating and multiplied by the number of reviews. Here are the results (number of ratings, average rating, and score):

The Green Mile 2051038 4.3 3,076,557.00
Forrest Gump 2032929 4.3 3,049,393.50
Pirates of the Caribbean 1954890 4.2 2,736,846.00
Pretty Woman 2207630 4 2,649,156.00
The Shawshank Redemption 1417848 4.6 2,552,126.40
Independence Day 2453963 3.8 2,453,963.00
Gladiator 1734822 4.2 2,428,750.80
The Matrix 1593897 4.3 2,390,845.50
The Patriot 2342440 3.8 2,342,440.00
The Fellowship tof he Ring 1452877 4.4 2,324,603.20
The Two Towers 1360250 4.5 2,312,425.00
Braveheart 1512961 4.3 2,269,441.50
Saving Private Ryan 1415614 4.3 2,123,421.00
Pulp Fiction 1723538 4 2,068,245.60
The Return of the King 1147785 4.6 2,066,013.00
Finding Nemo 1274897 4.4 2,039,835.20
Silence of the Lambs 1349250 4.3 2,023,875.00
American Beauty 1825394 3.9 2,007,933.40
Indiana Jones and the Last Crusade 1220700 4.4 1,953,120.00
The Fugitive 1469706 4.1 1,910,617.80
Top Gun 1704885 3.9 1,875,373.50
Shrek 2 1439988 4.1 1,871,984.40
Shrek 1242053 4.3 1,863,079.50
The Rock 1857087 3.8 1,857,087.00
The Incredibles 1236588 4.3 1,854,882.00
Monsters Inc 1236514 4.3 1,854,771.00
The Bourne Identity 1542486 4 1,850,983.20
Raiders of the Lost Ark 1088795 4.5 1,850,951.50
Armageddon 2263552 3.6 1,810,841.60
Good Will Hunting 1286592 4.2 1,801,228.80

It's 2nd all-time, and nearly everything near the top never had a sequel. So, I think this movie can enter uncharted waters by sequel standards based on this. Like with the rest of the data....

Superbowl ad-meter

I made a list of admeter ratings. I calculated the difference between the scores and the average in a movie’s respective year. That way it adjusts for any changes in the way they tabulate the results (which seems to happen). Here are the results:

Bruce Almighty 0.587
POTC 0.303
Anger Management 0.297
Hitch 0.157
Ladykillers 0.143
WOTW 0.107
Troy 0.093
Matrix Sequels 0.007
50FD (0.077)
Longest Yard (0.283)
Miracle (0.307)
Robots (0.313)
Sahara (0.333)
Poseidon (0.367)
Fastest Indian (0.387)
Secret Window (0.447)
Cars (0.457)
Hidalgo (0.487)
Be Cool (0.503)
MI3 (0.527)
Constantine (0.603)
Alamo (0.667)
BB (0.713)
Hulk (0.763)
CA2 (0.783)
T3 (0.873)
Shaggy Dog (0.937)
Van Helsing (0.977)
V For Vendetta (1.097)
Daredevil (1.133)
Recruit (1.163)
Running Scarred (1.187)
16 Blocks (1.197)
Bad Boys II (1.413)

As you can see comedies tend to do well which makes sense given that people expect to laugh at SB ads. Action movies are low probably because they don’t appeal to many. POTC did not have an ad centered on comedy. In fact it wasn’t even the best ad, just part of the teaser; the final trailer was better. Yet, it had the second best ranking; only Bruce Almighty, a wide appealing comedy, could beat it. I think there is only one conclusion: it’s all because of the goodwill created by the original. That number there suggests to me that the popularity is truly at astronomical levels. Much as the rest of the data shows.

But sequels tend to decrease; especially sequels to 300m+ blockbusters.....

later

Yahoo Grade

Later

But, that (162m OW) would require every show to sell out all weekend.

That's not really true. If the average theater has 300 seats and 4 showtimes each per day that's about $7,500 a day and $22,500 for the weekend. Even with only 8500 screens that comes to $191m for the weekend which can be near 205m-210m at max with midnight showings. I don't think these are aggressive numbers, they are conservative if anything in calculating capacity.

Another way to look at it is the fact that SM sold 48m worth of tickets (adjusted) on it's Saturday. With at least 20% more screens I'm certain something near 55m is possible. That of course though is without midnights. So, it's quite obvious IMO that 65m-70m will happen if the demand is there. Of course, I expect demand to be a bit lower at 62m.

It very easily could, I think. I'd say a 40-45% chance, but we'll have to see just how high the opening is.

Wait, you actually believe that 4,401 people (at this moment) rate this movie 4.7 are all people who have attended pre-screenings (the midnight East Coast showings haven't ended yet) and came up to Netflix to give a grade? Or the age-old, tired fanboys who attack web sites and try to manipulate grades without EVEN seeing the film.

I can't believe this is what's passing for logic around this place.

Oh look what I just did:

He's talking about the first movie.

Hahahaha... okay then. Sorry DP07, I had assumed you were talking about the sequel.

Random %s and comparison from sites like CinemaScore and Yahoo mean that this will be the 2nd biggest movie ever made? Personally, that's not gonna convince me any.

And Pirates does not have more wide appeal than Shrek. It just doesn't.

Are we talking about opening day here?

Both have been accurate in the past, so why not?

You're giving me all the reasons why POTC will beat Shrek 2. What you're not giving me is one good reason why I should care.

Because your precious Spider-man's record is going down after 4 freaking years.

I'll try to post the rest (mostly data on sequels increasing/decreasing, and how yahoo relates to that) tomorrow if I have time. I have most of the data, but I'm working much of the day, and I need to wake up in 4 hours. But I guess I already have most of the data for this thread here.

i dont understand this movie.

POTC and Shrek 2 are already out.

Shrek 2 won.

oh shhhh.

And that's the most comparable film, because Jurassic Park was in and of itself a blockbuster original.

i would put all the money in the world on the fact that pirates does not have more appeal than spider-man.


no way.

I'll take you up on that bet.

Nah it won't, because the impression I'm getting sifting through people's reactiongs to DMC is that it's a fun film but it lacks some of the appeal to women that the first one had. Less romance, less Bloom and less Knightley. Before any Depp-obsessives chime in, yes I know he was the main appeal but it wasn't a one man show, even Depp has said it wouldn't have worked without the other elements.

But I haven't seen it yet of course so take that with a grain of salt, just how it seems at the moment.

No it had huge anticipation due to Spielberg and the fact that the book was incredibly big.