Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest
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Eventine
Too Brilliant for Introductions
Joined: Sat Nov 05, 2005 12:45 am
Posts: 3073
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 Eventine's Prediction:
Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest
Opening Day: 48.08m
2nd Day: 46.16m -4%
Opening Wknd: 130.24m - Fri: 48.08m / Sat: 46.16m -4% / Sun: 36.00m -22%
4-Day: 146.80m - Mon: 16.56m -54%
5-Day: 161.54m - Tue: 14.74m -11%
6-Day: 174.36m - Wed: 12.82m -13%
Opening Wk: 186.41m - Thur: 12.05m -6%
2nd Wknd: 62.65m -51.9% - Fri: 18.68m +55% / Sat: 24.84m +33% / Sun: 19.13m -23%
11-Day: 270.59m - Mon: 10.08m -47%
12-Day: 279.76m - Tue: 9.17m -9%
13-Day: 288.29m - Wed: 8.53m -7%
2nd Wk: 296.99m - Thur: 8.70m +2%
3rd Wknd: 40.10m -36% - Fri: 12.09m +39% / Sat: 15.48m +28% / Sun: 12.53m -19%
Wk-1: 186.41m - Wknd: 130.24m | Total: 186.41m
Wk-2: 99.13m - Wknd: 62.65m | Total: 285.54m
Wk-3: 68.14m - Wknd: 40.10m | Total: 364.13m
Wk-4: 42.41m - Wknd: 26.07m | Total: 402.54m
Wk-5: 21.48m - Wknd: 17.99m | Total: 421.02m
Wk-6: 17.88m - Wknd: 12.85m | Total: 443.90m
Wk-7: 13.19m - Wknd: 8.62m | Total: 456.59m
Wk-8: 8.76m - Wknd: 5.32m | Total: 464.85m
Wk-9: 7.45m - Wknd: 4.18m - 4-Day-Wknd: 5.44m | Total: 472.30m
Wk-10: 5.14m - Wknd: 2.84m | Total: 477.44m
Wk-11: 3.03m - Wknd: 1.77m | Total: 480.47m
Wk-12: 1.67m - Wknd: 1.32m | Total: 482.14m
Wk-13: 1.07m - Wknd: .83m | Total: 483.21m
Wk-14: .67m - Wknd: .49m | Total: 483.88m
Wk-15: .33m - Wknd: .23m | Total: 484.21m
Wk-16: .49m - Wknd: .36m | Total: 484.70m
Wk-17: .29m - Wknd: .21m | Total: 484.99m
Wk-18: .21m - Wknd: .14m | Total: 485.20m
Wk-19: .18m - Wknd: .12m | Total: 485.38m
Wk-20: .10m - Wknd: .07m | Total: 485.48m
Money Made After Wk-20: ~.3m
Estimated Wks in theaters: 25
Days to 50m: 2-Days - 58.03m
Days to 100m: 3-Days - 130.24m
Days to 150m: 5-Days - 161.54m
Days to 200m: 8-Days - 208.22m
Days to 250m: 10-Days - 260.51m
Days to 300m: 15-Days - 309.08m
Days to 350m: 19-Days - 351.15m
Days to 400m: 28-Days - 401.54m
Days to 450m: 44-Days - 451.09m
Domestic Total: 487m
International Total: 519m
World Wide Total: 1.006b
Multiplyer: 3.74
_________________
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| Sun Jun 18, 2006 11:57 am |
 
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Jonathan
Begging Naked
Joined: Mon Oct 25, 2004 12:07 pm
Posts: 14737
Location: The Present (Duh)
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Quote: I'm not saying Superman Returns is Son of Poseidon, far from it, but last Thursday's (6.15) NRG numbers are indicating a fairly good but less-than-phenomenal July 4th holiday opening. Definite interest was at 38%, but two weeks before opening a tentpole movie of this size should be closer to 50% at this stage. (Pirates of the Caribbean's definite interest was at 67%, and that's three weeks out.) Superman Returns had a first-choice rating of 9%, but at this stage of the game that number should be in the high teens. Warner Bros. has a nine-day window -- Wednesday, 6.28 to Thursday July 6 -- to make all the Superman dough they can before Pirates crashes through on Friday, July 7. Whatever Superman Returns does during its three-day weekend period (6.30 to 7.2) will be halved the following weekend. The domestic goal is to make $100 million over the first seven days, and then multiply that by at least 2.5 before heading off to DVD. Anything less will be considered a shortfall. I hear this, I hear this...and on some level it's not right. Superman Returns is a true heart movie -- Pirates, sight unseen, is a jackoff eye-mascara 16-ounce-can-of-Budweiser movie.
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| Sun Jun 18, 2006 5:20 pm |
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tina_als_girl
Cream of the Crop
Joined: Sun May 15, 2005 3:43 pm
Posts: 2252
Location: Wellsville, MO
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excel wrote: the more i hear about this movie the more i dont like it. i just learned what a character does at the end to another character and as aresult something happens to a character. appearently they all become gay greedy bitches and i think sounds lame. jack sparrow was a cool hero cause he was funny n everybody understimated him. will was doing the right thing and elizabeth as just kidnapped. I say watch the movie before making judgments about motivations and actions. There's a lot more to what happens than what you're making it out to be. And no one becomes a "gay greedy bitch"; once you know the motivations of each character and therefore why they are taking the actions that they are, you'll find that it's not out of greed.
Joy
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| Mon Jun 19, 2006 1:44 am |
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Excel
Superfreak
Joined: Sat Aug 20, 2005 12:54 am
Posts: 22213
Location: Places
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ight.
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| Mon Jun 19, 2006 1:56 am |
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xiayun
Extraordinary
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 3:41 pm
Posts: 25109
Location: San Mateo, CA
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Positive Jon wrote: Quote: I'm not saying Superman Returns is Son of Poseidon, far from it, but last Thursday's (6.15) NRG numbers are indicating a fairly good but less-than-phenomenal July 4th holiday opening. Definite interest was at 38%, but two weeks before opening a tentpole movie of this size should be closer to 50% at this stage. (Pirates of the Caribbean's definite interest was at 67%, and that's three weeks out.) Superman Returns had a first-choice rating of 9%, but at this stage of the game that number should be in the high teens. Warner Bros. has a nine-day window -- Wednesday, 6.28 to Thursday July 6 -- to make all the Superman dough they can before Pirates crashes through on Friday, July 7. Whatever Superman Returns does during its three-day weekend period (6.30 to 7.2) will be halved the following weekend. The domestic goal is to make $100 million over the first seven days, and then multiply that by at least 2.5 before heading off to DVD. Anything less will be considered a shortfall. I hear this, I hear this...and on some level it's not right. Superman Returns is a true heart movie -- Pirates, sight unseen, is a jackoff eye-mascara 16-ounce-can-of-Budweiser movie. That's an insane number. _________________Recent watched movies: American Hustle - B+ Inside Llewyn Davis - B Before Midnight - A 12 Years a Slave - A- The Hunger Games: Catching Fire - A- My thoughts on box office
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| Mon Jun 19, 2006 5:23 pm |
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Alex Y.
Top Poster
Joined: Fri Oct 15, 2004 4:47 pm
Posts: 5824
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xiayun wrote: Positive Jon wrote: Quote: I'm not saying Superman Returns is Son of Poseidon, far from it, but last Thursday's (6.15) NRG numbers are indicating a fairly good but less-than-phenomenal July 4th holiday opening. Definite interest was at 38%, but two weeks before opening a tentpole movie of this size should be closer to 50% at this stage. (Pirates of the Caribbean's definite interest was at 67%, and that's three weeks out.) Superman Returns had a first-choice rating of 9%, but at this stage of the game that number should be in the high teens. Warner Bros. has a nine-day window -- Wednesday, 6.28 to Thursday July 6 -- to make all the Superman dough they can before Pirates crashes through on Friday, July 7. Whatever Superman Returns does during its three-day weekend period (6.30 to 7.2) will be halved the following weekend. The domestic goal is to make $100 million over the first seven days, and then multiply that by at least 2.5 before heading off to DVD. Anything less will be considered a shortfall. I hear this, I hear this...and on some level it's not right. Superman Returns is a true heart movie -- Pirates, sight unseen, is a jackoff eye-mascara 16-ounce-can-of-Budweiser movie. That's an insane number. Is that the highest ever? Anybody remember the "definite interest" number for X-3, The Da Vinci Code, the Spider-man movies, Revenge of the Sith, and the Harry Potter movies?
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| Mon Jun 19, 2006 6:20 pm |
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xiayun
Extraordinary
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 3:41 pm
Posts: 25109
Location: San Mateo, CA
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alex young wrote: xiayun wrote: Positive Jon wrote: Quote: I'm not saying Superman Returns is Son of Poseidon, far from it, but last Thursday's (6.15) NRG numbers are indicating a fairly good but less-than-phenomenal July 4th holiday opening. Definite interest was at 38%, but two weeks before opening a tentpole movie of this size should be closer to 50% at this stage. (Pirates of the Caribbean's definite interest was at 67%, and that's three weeks out.) Superman Returns had a first-choice rating of 9%, but at this stage of the game that number should be in the high teens. Warner Bros. has a nine-day window -- Wednesday, 6.28 to Thursday July 6 -- to make all the Superman dough they can before Pirates crashes through on Friday, July 7. Whatever Superman Returns does during its three-day weekend period (6.30 to 7.2) will be halved the following weekend. The domestic goal is to make $100 million over the first seven days, and then multiply that by at least 2.5 before heading off to DVD. Anything less will be considered a shortfall. I hear this, I hear this...and on some level it's not right. Superman Returns is a true heart movie -- Pirates, sight unseen, is a jackoff eye-mascara 16-ounce-can-of-Budweiser movie. That's an insane number. Is that the highest ever? Anybody remember the "definite interest" number for X-3, The Da Vinci Code, the Spider-man movies, Revenge of the Sith, and the Harry Potter movies? For X-3: Quote: TEEN MALE:
78%
21%
1%
TEEN FEMALE:
70%
26%
4%
ADULT MALE 20-35:
70%
28%
2%
ADULT FEMALE 20-35
60%
31%
9%
ADULT 35+
55%
35%
10%
The Da Vinci Code: Quote: TEEN MALE:
41%
54%
5%
TEEN FEMALE:
36%
56%
8%
ADULT MALE 20-35:
68%
30%
2%
ADULT FEMALE 20-35
69%
27%
4%
ADULT 35+
64%
35%
1%
Both are from RS. Since it is tracking Pirates higher, I expect it has higher percentages as well. _________________Recent watched movies: American Hustle - B+ Inside Llewyn Davis - B Before Midnight - A 12 Years a Slave - A- The Hunger Games: Catching Fire - A- My thoughts on box office
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| Mon Jun 19, 2006 6:38 pm |
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notfabio
Harry Potter and the Half Blood Prince
Joined: Sat Jul 09, 2005 9:30 pm
Posts: 437
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Well here is the RS tracking...it is different than NRG's xiayun wrote: alex young wrote: xiayun wrote: Positive Jon wrote: Quote: I'm not saying Superman Returns is Son of Poseidon, far from it, but last Thursday's (6.15) NRG numbers are indicating a fairly good but less-than-phenomenal July 4th holiday opening. Definite interest was at 38%, but two weeks before opening a tentpole movie of this size should be closer to 50% at this stage. (Pirates of the Caribbean's definite interest was at 67%, and that's three weeks out.) Superman Returns had a first-choice rating of 9%, but at this stage of the game that number should be in the high teens. Warner Bros. has a nine-day window -- Wednesday, 6.28 to Thursday July 6 -- to make all the Superman dough they can before Pirates crashes through on Friday, July 7. Whatever Superman Returns does during its three-day weekend period (6.30 to 7.2) will be halved the following weekend. The domestic goal is to make $100 million over the first seven days, and then multiply that by at least 2.5 before heading off to DVD. Anything less will be considered a shortfall. I hear this, I hear this...and on some level it's not right. Superman Returns is a true heart movie -- Pirates, sight unseen, is a jackoff eye-mascara 16-ounce-can-of-Budweiser movie. That's an insane number. Is that the highest ever? Anybody remember the "definite interest" number for X-3, The Da Vinci Code, the Spider-man movies, Revenge of the Sith, and the Harry Potter movies? For X-3: Quote: TEEN MALE:
78%
21%
1%
TEEN FEMALE:
70%
26%
4%
ADULT MALE 20-35:
70%
28%
2%
ADULT FEMALE 20-35
60%
31%
9%
ADULT 35+
55%
35%
10%
The Da Vinci Code: Quote: TEEN MALE:
41%
54%
5%
TEEN FEMALE:
36%
56%
8%
ADULT MALE 20-35:
68%
30%
2%
ADULT FEMALE 20-35
69%
27%
4%
ADULT 35+
64%
35%
1%
Both are from RS. Since it is tracking Pirates higher, I expect it has higher percentages as well. These are in fact the actual numbers for PIRATES 2 so you can compare....
TEEN MALE:
77%
23%
0% (NOT AWARE)
TEEN FEMALE:
74%
25%
1% (NOT AWARE)
ADULT MALE 20-35:
71%
29%
0% (NOT AWARE)
ADULT FEMALE 20-35
75%
25%
0% (NOT AWARE)
ADULT 35+
60%
39%
1% (NOT AWARE)
KIDS (6-12) NOT TRACKED
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| Mon Jun 19, 2006 6:46 pm |
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Rev
Romosexual!
Joined: Tue Oct 19, 2004 3:06 am
Posts: 32630
Location: the last free city
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damn that's some awsome tracking. 
_________________
Is it 2028 yet?
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| Mon Jun 19, 2006 6:49 pm |
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xiayun
Extraordinary
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 3:41 pm
Posts: 25109
Location: San Mateo, CA
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Wow, no more than 1% for Not Aware across all demographics.
_________________Recent watched movies: American Hustle - B+ Inside Llewyn Davis - B Before Midnight - A 12 Years a Slave - A- The Hunger Games: Catching Fire - A- My thoughts on box office
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| Mon Jun 19, 2006 6:58 pm |
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BJ
Killing With Kindness
Joined: Mon Oct 11, 2004 8:57 pm
Posts: 25035
Location: Anchorage,Alaska
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xiayun wrote: Wow, no more than 1% for Not Aware across all demographics. 500m+  _________________The Force Awakens
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| Mon Jun 19, 2006 9:37 pm |
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Excel
Superfreak
Joined: Sat Aug 20, 2005 12:54 am
Posts: 22213
Location: Places
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140+
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| Mon Jun 19, 2006 9:48 pm |
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Eventine
Too Brilliant for Introductions
Joined: Sat Nov 05, 2005 12:45 am
Posts: 3073
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Holy shit. Amazing tracking numbers there. No more than 1% "not aware" cross all demographics. Everybody certainly knows Captain Jack is back!
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| Mon Jun 19, 2006 9:54 pm |
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The Steeeve
Star Trek XI
Joined: Sat Feb 18, 2006 2:40 pm
Posts: 331
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No less than 60% definite interest for any demo.
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| Mon Jun 19, 2006 9:57 pm |
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Eventine
Too Brilliant for Introductions
Joined: Sat Nov 05, 2005 12:45 am
Posts: 3073
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Re: Well here is the RS tracking...it is different than NRG' notfabio wrote: ADULT FEMALE 20-35
75%
25%
0% (NOT AWARE) Johnny Depp's power. _________________
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| Mon Jun 19, 2006 9:59 pm |
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Amer
Indiana Jones IV
Joined: Mon Oct 11, 2004 10:35 pm
Posts: 1912
Location: Texas
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Thats amazing numbers...I knew this movie would big...I told you guys it appeals to all people, which is why it will be number 1.
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| Tue Jun 20, 2006 6:42 am |
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Kenspy
Into the fray
Joined: Thu May 18, 2006 12:09 pm
Posts: 1874
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Superman Returns tentative theater count is 3600+ on BOM...4000+ for POTC2 here we come 
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| Tue Jun 20, 2006 6:49 am |
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notfabio
Harry Potter and the Half Blood Prince
Joined: Sat Jul 09, 2005 9:30 pm
Posts: 437
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Re: Well here is the RS tracking...it is different than NRG' Eventine wrote: notfabio wrote: ADULT FEMALE 20-35
75%
25%
0% (NOT AWARE) Johnny Depp's power. With that kind of tracking with that demo If PIRATES 2 was in IMAX3D I'd be worried
about Johnny Depp psychically impregnanting half the women of child bearing age. 
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| Tue Jun 20, 2006 3:45 pm |
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Chippy
KJ's Leading Pundit
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 4:45 pm
Posts: 63026
Location: Tonight... YOU!
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Those numbers make me wanna hump something
_________________trixster wrote: shut the fuck up zwackerm, you're out of your fucking element trixster wrote: chippy is correct
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| Tue Jun 20, 2006 3:54 pm |
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liesse00
Commander Coo Coo Bananas
Joined: Sat May 20, 2006 10:45 am
Posts: 585
Location: North Central Illinois
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Magnus wrote: Yeah fuck it
OD: 49m
Sat: 48m (down 2%)
Sun: 39m (down 19%)
OW: 135m
Total: 400m Come on put Opening Day above 50, you know you want to.
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| Tue Jun 20, 2006 5:23 pm |
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Chippy
KJ's Leading Pundit
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 4:45 pm
Posts: 63026
Location: Tonight... YOU!
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It's impossible for it not to get $50 mil opening day
_________________trixster wrote: shut the fuck up zwackerm, you're out of your fucking element trixster wrote: chippy is correct
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| Tue Jun 20, 2006 5:40 pm |
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The Dark Shape
Extraordinary
Joined: Sat Oct 23, 2004 3:56 am
Posts: 12119
Location: Adrift in L.A.
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ChipMunky wrote: It's impossible for it not to get $50 mil opening day It's impossible if Pirates 2 doesn't have midnight shows.
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| Tue Jun 20, 2006 5:57 pm |
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trixster
loyalfromlondon
Joined: Wed Oct 13, 2004 6:31 pm
Posts: 19697
Location: ville-marie
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Updated Prediction:
Friday: $48.5 million
Saturday: $43.7 million (-10%)
Sunday: $35 million (-20%)
Opening Weekend: $127.2 million (first all-time)
Monday: $17.5 million (-50%)
Tuesday: $15.6 million (-11%)
Wednesday: $13.6 million (-13%)
Thursday: $12.4 million (-9%)
Opening Week: $186.3 million (third all-time)
Friday: $18.6 million (+50%)
Saturday: $23.3 million (+25%)
Sunday: $18.6 million (-20%)
Second Weekend: $60.5 million (-52%) (third all-time)
Total After 10 Days: $246.8 million (first all-time)
Domestic Gross: $391,746,031 (seventh all-time)
International Gross: $478,800,705 (fifteenth all-time)
Worldwide Gross: $870,546,736 (eleventh all-time)
 _________________Magic Mike wrote: zwackerm wrote: If John Wick 2 even makes 30 million I will eat 1,000 shoes. Same. Algren wrote: I don't think. I predict. 
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| Tue Jun 20, 2006 6:12 pm |
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liesse00
Commander Coo Coo Bananas
Joined: Sat May 20, 2006 10:45 am
Posts: 585
Location: North Central Illinois
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Magnus wrote: The Dark Shape wrote: ChipMunky wrote: It's impossible for it not to get $50 mil opening day It's impossible if Pirates 2 doesn't have midnight shows. There's midnight showings already in some theaters a bit far away from me. Next week, most theaters will have their showings, and I expect a lot of them to get sold out. POTC2 midnight showings coud produce 10M. My theater just put up a midnight showing and coincidently took down a 10:00 PM showing of Superman at the same time. I'm debating on weather or not I can stay up that late I don't think my body will allow it.
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| Tue Jun 20, 2006 6:26 pm |
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batnanna
Da Bears
Joined: Thu May 04, 2006 2:15 am
Posts: 2802
Location: Springfield, Missouri
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liesse, I was really thinking you were cool until that last statement of yours. What a sissy you are! I think you can manage it for Pirates. (By the way, nice avatar. I will have to get myself a bears one)
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| Tue Jun 20, 2006 6:30 pm |
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