That means it dropped nearly 20% Fri-to-Sat even without midnight. Semi-ouch (Still an envious number, higher then ROTS's day gross).

Hm, I would have estimated that it made $8+ million in midnigt screenings.

X-Men: The Last Stand vs. The Matrix Reloaded vs. Harry Potter and the Prizoner of Azkaban



[table][row]Days[col]X-Men 3[col]% Change[col]Total Gross[col]The Matrix Reloaded[col]% Change[col]Total Gross[col]Harry Potter 3[col]% Change[col]Total Gross[row]Day 1[col]$45,500,000[col]NEW[col]$45,500,000[col]$42,508,303[col]NEW[col]$42,508,303[col]$38,268,295[col]NEW[col]$38,268,295[row]Day 2[col]$32,100,000[col]-29.5%[col]$77,600,000[col]$31,330,393[col]-16.5%[col]$73,838,696[col]$31,493,867[col]-17.7%[col]$69,762,162[row]Day 3[col]$25,525,000[col]-20.5%[col]$103,125,000[col]$34,389,237[col]+9.8%[col]$108,227,933[col]$23,925,205[col]-24%[col]$93,687,367[row]Day 4[col]$17,000,000[col]-33.4%[col]$120,125,000[col]$26,054,783[col]-24.2%[col]$134,282,716[col]$8,428,431[col]-64.8%[col]$102,115,798[/table]


It should keep tracking behind The Matrix Reloaded from now on, but I expect it to eclipse Harry Potter 3. I think the Monday drop of over 30% is quite overprojected. Should be more like 25% for a 4-day weekend of $122 million.

Grosses after four days:


Star Wars: Episode III - Revenge of the Sith - $158,449,700
The Matrix Reloaded - $134,282,716
Spider-Man 2 - $130,456,123
Spider-Man - $125,878,901
X-Men: The Last Stand- $120,125,000
Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire - $110,741,182
Star Wars: Episode II - Attack of the Clones - $110,169,231
Harry Potter and the Prizoner of Azkaban - $102,115,798
Harry potter and the Sorcerer's Stone - $96,937,323
X2: X-Men United - $92,108,448
Bruce Almighty - $85,734,045


Interestingly enough, despite having a 4-day weekend around $35 million smaller than X3, Bruce Almighty's Monday gross was higher than X3's projected Monday gross.

That's why I think X3's Monday gross is overestimated. A 33% drop on Memorial Day is unheard of. Even for a frontloaded film like this, it's kid-friendly enough to only drop 25% or so.

You mean the drop is overestimated, the gross is underestimated

I agree.

But then again, its 30% drop from Friday to Saturday was , , , and

I don't know what to believe anymore for X3. I would agree with you guys, but I also am not completely sure anymore, because while it was projected to drop 10% on sunday (just like Bruce Almighty, Episode III, and Matrix Reloaded) it actually dropped 20%. Now it is projected to drop 33% on monday, which appears high to me definately, but the film already defied the norm on the sunday (AND the saturday, which I read somewhere is the first saturday drop ever for an opener on Memorial Day weekend?), so I'm not sure what to think.

PEACE, Mike.

Yeah, that's what I meant.

I don't think it's a lock for 250 mil.

If it drops like -67% this weekend, that'll give it 33 million. If it levels off from there with an average of -47% each week after, it'll get 17, 9, 5, 2.6, 1.4, which adds up to 188 or so with the extra Monday. That's a bit too far off. Weekdays will be good, especially this week's, but IMO if it followed that pattern it wouldn't be enough.

67% is a bit too harsh...

I see no more than 63-64%

the drop will be 70-80% next friday. then 50-60 on sunday and saturday.

itll drop from 45 down to lik...12, on friday. then from 32 to 14 on saturday nd from 25 to 9.

only 35 million from 103 million. I doubt that, what coming out next week Superman no?

Yes its post memorial day weekend but i don't see how it can fall that much as its getting ok to good wom and the lack of other big action films.


Plus will this have huge weekdays?? Has the summer season started? Have schools ended???

I see 7-8 million weekdays this week.

It'll get $5-6 million weekdays this week. Its Monday-Tuesday drop will br at least 70%.

I thought schools were out in the US so it can pull off huge weekdays.

http://www.i-am-bored.com/bored_link.cfm?link_id=15862

no, most get out late june.

Schools in the south are starting to end around this time. It's the schools in the north that still have a couple weeks left. The weekday numbers will start to get bigger and bigger from here on out.

I'm not sure if it was mentioned, but X3 made $5.9 million from the midnight showings.

Positive Jon mentioned it earlier. It was also in Brandon's analysis.

WOW! it came close to $40m without help from midnight screenings. WAY COOL!!

But then again, it was Thursday.

45.5 - 5.9 = 39.6
according to bom numbers.

So, that must be the record opening day without midnights.

probably. did HP4 do any midnight sales?