The final theatre count is 4,054.

Thus my final predictions are:

Opening weekend - $72.8 million

Total gross - $200 million (it will come within a million or so and they will push it past the mark)

I'm broke as well at the moment.

But, yes I'll bet. My prediction is 145m right now, so would over/under 160m be more fair?

I remember a month ago you said you'd make a nude picture bet with over/under $130 million. How come the sentiment change?

While there's no way it's gonna go as low as Kingdom of Heaven, I can still see this disappointing somewhat. Wouldn't be surprised to see it doing $50-60 million on it's way to a $150 finish.

Yeah, I'll accept that.

And what exactly are we betting on? I'd be willing to do another "you see a movie of my choice if I win, I'll see a movie of your choice if you win" kind of bet.

Smiths was 56% female, so it actually did better as a romantic comedy then an action movie. People were predicting a multiplier around 3 last year for that one, and I was arguing that was too low.

It appeals to a pretty wide audience, but so did I, Robot, Fantastic Four, and X2. This isn't Mr. and Mrs. Smith.

Yeah, sounds good. Just remember I never actually would make you see something like Phat Girlz or Aquamarine.

The movie seems to be really good.

I am not predicting a 3.5+ multiplier either, though. I am just saying that 2.5 and below is ridiculous. F4 and X2 had very distinct fanbases. I, Robot is the closest comparison of those you mentioned and it managed a 2.78 multiplier, despite facing two $50+ million openers in a row.

4 hours & 23 minutes till SHOWTIME!!

Fantastic Four had a 2.76x multiplier. Although that had somewhat less competition and mid-summer weekdays, it didn't exactly have good or great WOM to obtain such a multiplier.

Van Helsing: 2.32x
X2: 2.51x
2 Fast 2 Furious: 2.52x
Fantastic Four: 2.76x
I, Robot: 2.77x
Bad Boys II: 2.98x

All decent comparisons, I'd say. I do think it'll fall in between 2.5-2.7x. If it had bad WOM, I'd think differently, but right now, nothing seems to point in that direction. I can't see it being more frontloaded than X2.

Yes, but Smiths and I, Robot had much better weekdays. I, Robot would have seen about 2.4 with spring weekdays.

Also, I disagree on X2 and F4. They did have families and as much female appeal as I, Robot or MI3. Same age range as well.

No...no.

If I, Robot opened the same weekend as M:I-3, it would have made $60+ million opening weekend, though.

Probably. 62m/150m makes sense.

Just bought tickets for 7pm tomorrow. I'm excited to see something so stupid-yet-lots of fun.

Let us know if u still think it's stupid after you see it.

With the MI3 marketing campaign at its peak, and with it being more of an internet film then The Da Vinci Code:

Most anticipated May film?

X-Men: The Last Stand - 16,881 (51%)
The Da Vinci Code - 7683 (23%)
Mission: Impossible III - 3341 (10%)
Poseidon - 1115 (3%)
Over the Hedge - 920 (3%)

http://movies.yahoo.com/mv/pollresults? ... r_choice=7

Well, X3 is a more internet film than both The Da Vinci Code and Mission: Impossible III, and I'm sure X3 tops more 'anticipated lists' than M:I-3 might. It's not asking if people are anticipating the film, but what people are more excited about. In a month filled with three or four great-looking films, it's wrong to expect M:I-3 will be much higher than that. A better way to determine the hype for a single film is the polls at Movies.com, like for Poseidon, X-Men: The Last Stand and The Da Vinci Code. Unfortunately, we can't see M:I-3's results now because the poll has been changed to "I've seen the flick, and I'd grade it as...". Obviously, with those three films, you can see a difference in the level of anticipation between X3, The Da Vinci Code, and Poseidon. This is a better indicator.

X-3 also suffers from Ratner backlash too. People just seem to hate the guy, read imdb posts, RT and IGN.But its no brainer that X-3 would win but however MI3 should of been at least matching with DAvinci Code which it isnt

Final Prediction

Friday: $25.5 million
Saturday: $26.7 million (+5%)
Sunday: $18.7 million (-30%)
Opening Weekend: $70.9 million (2.78 multiplier)
Domestic Gross: $191,432,584 (2.7 multiplier)

Right now I'm thinking about 64 mil OW, though I'm wary that some of the buzz isn't as strong as it should be. It should still do great though I think, there's not much else appealing in the marketing. I'll still wait for the 10 PM reports though.

BOMs summer poll:
What is your most anticipated movie of the summer? (ends 5/5)
23.7% Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest
23.1% X-Men: The Last Stand
17.0% The Da Vinci Code
14.7% Superman Returns
5.1% Mission: Impossible III
3.8% Cars
3.7% Snakes on a Plane
3.4% Other
2.6% Miami Vice
2.1% Poseidon
0.6% The Fast and the Furious: Tokyo Drift

Seems a bit weak for MI:3, though the real one there who should be embarassed is Poseidon. Snakes on A Plane is beating it!

That's pretty easy to explain. It is "the most anticipated" poll, so the score is all or nothing. The demographic who is looking forward to Poseidon has many other similar choices, but Snake on A Plane fans are hardcore. It doesn't mean people won't show up for Poseidon's opening weekend. If you ask people to rank all the films and add up scores that way, the distributions will look very different.

Hmm.

Friday: $26.6 million
Saturday: $27.3 million (+2.6%)
Sunday: $19.0 million (-30.4%)

Opening Weekend: $72.9 million (2.74 IM; same as X2: X-Men United)
Domestic Gross: $193.2 million (2.65x multiplier)

Just got back from an early private-ish showing (don't ask)...and I don't think this will have great WOM....it was uber repetitive and Tom Cruise is more dislikeable than ever.

Okay, I've seen the movie - at the Thursday 10pm premiere screening with 27 other people in a 400 seat theatre - it sucks.

I apologize for my wild-ass prediction - legs are going to be short as word of mouth gets out - let's say - 42/135...