superman returns predictons
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O
Extraordinary
Joined: Sun Jul 10, 2005 1:53 pm Posts: 12197
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Charlie's Angels 2 learned that the hard way! That film was 99% marketing...
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Sat Apr 29, 2006 12:38 pm |
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Excel
Superfreak
Joined: Sat Aug 20, 2005 12:54 am Posts: 22214 Location: Places
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Zingaling wrote: Bottom line: a huge marketing campaign doesn't mean a huge box-office is guaranteed. It's kind of foolish to think that. A company can market the film all they want, but if it doesn't look appealing, $75+ million will not just go for the heck of it.
your right, but use some common sense. this is superman. it is not realistic to think this marketing wont work cause it "wont be appealing".
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Sat Apr 29, 2006 12:40 pm |
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Excel
Superfreak
Joined: Sat Aug 20, 2005 12:54 am Posts: 22214 Location: Places
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Zingaling wrote: Bottom line: a huge marketing campaign doesn't mean a huge box-office is guaranteed. It's kind of foolish to think that. A company can market the film all they want, but if it doesn't look appealing, $75+ million will not just go for the heck of it.
your right, but use some common sense. this is superman. it is not realistic to think this marketing wont work cause it "wont be appealing".
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Sat Apr 29, 2006 12:40 pm |
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Rev
Romosexual!
Joined: Tue Oct 19, 2004 3:06 am Posts: 32633 Location: the last free city
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Zingaling wrote: Bottom line: a huge marketing campaign doesn't mean a huge box-office is guaranteed. It's kind of foolish to think that. A company can market the film all they want, but if it doesn't look appealing, $75+ million will not just go for the heck of it.
people go to movies for the heck of it all the time. why u think soo many crappy movies open with bigger than expected grosses.
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Sat Apr 29, 2006 12:40 pm |
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O
Extraordinary
Joined: Sun Jul 10, 2005 1:53 pm Posts: 12197
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For what is supposed to be the biggest June event film, I should be seeing Superman promotion everywhere. I haven't. I don't know how hard it is to put together another trailer by this time. I know they have a huge idea or whatever on what they're doing, but it would be great if they let the moviegoer know about it sooner or later! 
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Sat Apr 29, 2006 12:47 pm |
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Excel
Superfreak
Joined: Sat Aug 20, 2005 12:54 am Posts: 22214 Location: Places
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why would you see it everywhere 2 months before it opens. 2 WEEKS before it opens you will be, and thats how it should be.
its just getting started.

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Sat Apr 29, 2006 12:49 pm |
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O
Extraordinary
Joined: Sun Jul 10, 2005 1:53 pm Posts: 12197
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excel wrote: why would you see it everywhere 2 months before it opens. 2 WEEKS before it opens you will be, and thats how it should be.
2 weeks is to much to gamble on when investing a quarter of a billion, especially with only a teaser to work with...
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Sat Apr 29, 2006 12:50 pm |
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Excel
Superfreak
Joined: Sat Aug 20, 2005 12:54 am Posts: 22214 Location: Places
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lol what i meant was itll come full effect with 2 weeks to go. i.e. come june 20th, you wont be able to go anywhere without hearing/seeing something for/abut this movie.
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Sat Apr 29, 2006 12:56 pm |
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zingy
College Boy Z
Joined: Mon Oct 11, 2004 8:40 pm Posts: 36662
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I don't even like arguing in this thread because the big three Superman fanatics twist every single news about Superman into a positive thing regarding the box-office.
When no trailer was attached to V for Vendetta: "Oh! It's okay, WB is now trying a new marketing strategy where they don't release the trailer until one month prior to the release! $300+ million total!" When the teaser sucked: "Who cares if the teaser sucked! It's Superman! $300+ million total!" excel, Magnus and revolutions pretend they're apart of the marketing team for this film and they know what's going to happen. They know the trailer is going to rock (just like the teaser was going to, apparently), they know that everyone who buys a bottle of Tropicana will see the film, etc.
It's just all bias. Nothing more.
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Sat Apr 29, 2006 12:59 pm |
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Outatime
Veteran
Joined: Fri Nov 04, 2005 9:00 pm Posts: 3413 Location: South Florida
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Zingaling wrote: I don't even like arguing in this thread because the big three Superman fanatics twist every single news about Superman into a positive thing regarding the box-office.
When no trailer was attached to V for Vendetta: "Oh! It's okay, WB is now trying a new marketing strategy where they don't release the trailer until one month prior to the release! $300+ million total!" When the teaser sucked: "Who cares if the teaser sucked! It's Superman! $300+ million total!" excel, Magnus and revolutions pretend they're apart of the marketing team for this film and they know what's going to happen. They know the trailer is going to rock (just like the teaser was going to, apparently), they know that everyone who buys a bottle of Tropicana will see the film, etc.
It's just all bias. Nothing more.

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Sat Apr 29, 2006 1:04 pm |
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Excel
Superfreak
Joined: Sat Aug 20, 2005 12:54 am Posts: 22214 Location: Places
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biasness? read the posts! ive been saying for 6 months waiting is the best thing! xmen 3 posters arrive in febuary and banners in ew york, verybody thinks itll be huge, marketing wil be huge. i said "wait! they probably will not even be there come may, so their useless". and now their gone. not everybody who buys tropicana will see this bviously. what i said was i think this will have that "everywhere" effect and those films are usually HUGE. its not biasness, im sayig superman will top 400 million. i said id be very happy with 250 million. im just PREDICTING 300 and people disagree and I make my point, geez. i could call everybody bias to pirates 2, but thats stupid. its an opinion and a predicting, and if you disagree, sweet. besides my prediction, what i have said that you flat out disagree with? that have tons of tie ins mean big box office? well, in the last 4y years,the films revenge of the sith, spiderman 2, matrix reloaded, spiderman, attack of the clones were the big summer blockbuster with tons of tie ins. NOE have bombed, and all have cracked 280 million, with 3 out of the 4 getting 350 million or more.
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Sat Apr 29, 2006 1:07 pm |
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zingy
College Boy Z
Joined: Mon Oct 11, 2004 8:40 pm Posts: 36662
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You haven't given one good reason as to why this film will open with $100 million opening weekend. And, I remember some months ago you considered this film a lock for $90 million opening weekend.
King Kong also had a lot of tie-ins, but guess what? The teaser and trailer didn't excite people enough to make them come out and see it. Batman Begins also falls into this category.
My biggest pet-peeve is when the word "lock" or "guaranteed" is thrown out in ridiculous ways.
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Sat Apr 29, 2006 1:12 pm |
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zingy
College Boy Z
Joined: Mon Oct 11, 2004 8:40 pm Posts: 36662
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So, if you believe it's a lock to break the 4th of July record, you believe it's a lock for an $89 million opening weekend, correct?
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Sat Apr 29, 2006 1:24 pm |
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Heinrich Himmler
Cream of the Crop
Joined: Sat Oct 16, 2004 5:17 pm Posts: 2716 Location: Berlin, Germania
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but...but superman 4 was terrible and a flop, so SR might gross even less than that one!
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Sat Apr 29, 2006 1:49 pm |
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Rev
Romosexual!
Joined: Tue Oct 19, 2004 3:06 am Posts: 32633 Location: the last free city
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Joseba B-Loki wrote: but...but superman 4 was terrible and a flop, so SR might gross even less than that one!

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Sat Apr 29, 2006 1:55 pm |
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zingy
College Boy Z
Joined: Mon Oct 11, 2004 8:40 pm Posts: 36662
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Magnus101 wrote: But if you serioulsy want to know my reasons for a July 4th weekend record and a 300m+ total, here is why
-Most popular superhero ever. A while ago I wasn't really sure about this. I thought Spider-man after the movies could be more popular. But then I started doing a mini-poll with the people I knew. I didn't straight-up ask them which superhero they liked the best, but I just started talking to them about comic-book heroes, and its not that almost all of them said Supes was their favorite, but ALL OF THEM said he was. Hell, hes not even my favorite superhero(Batman is) and I even tried to argue with them at why Batman is better, but nothing changed their mind. Alright, so you conducted a mini-poll. But, I'd argue that Superman was the most popular superhero about 20 years ago, but now, he's not. Among kids, who you all claim to be a big part of the audience, Superman isn't the favorite hero these days. And, the huge drop in box-office for each Superman movie isn't encouraging either. People weren't interested. Magnus101 wrote: -Almost two generations of kids have not seen a Superman movie on the big screen. I have never seen one and SR is not really a sequel to me but the first movie of hopefully great franchise I've never seen one either. I'm seeing this one. But, this doesn't really prove much in regards to box-office. Magnus101 wrote: -Marketing. Fine, if you want me to say that I don't know if the trailer will be effective, then I won't. But I do know that come June 30th, most are going to know that its coming. Product placements and huge billboards may not bring in huge numbers but they sure as hell bring up awareness. And awareness + holiday = big numbers. Maybe not huge numbers as that requires effectiveness, however after seeing how the WB marketing team brought in big numbers CHarlie and HP4, I think they can do the same for SR. I have said this before, but SR is just an easier film to market than Batman is. He's not as dark, he has more "money" shots, and BB came off of B&R while the last SR film was years ago. I know marketing raises awareness, and yeah, WB will probably market it a lot. But, a lot depends on the footage shown in the marketing. The teaser did nothing to help this film, period. If the trailer doesn't really impress, awareness won't make much difference. King Kong had lots of marketing and awareness, but let's face it - the trailer wasn't impressive enough to bring in the masses. Batman Begins was the same way. Superman Returns could fall into this category quite easily. Magnus101 wrote: -July 4th boost. Its opening week is going to be fuled by the holiday Agreed. But, what people fail to realize is that because it's opening so close to July 4th, the film's gross will be spread out over the week instead of all in the first three days. The Perfect Storm opened on June 30 as well, barely increased on Saturday, had a nice drop on Sunday, and an even better drop on Monday. It's more of a 4-Day weekend. Because it's a 4-Day weekend, there isn't the need to see it before Monday when you have a Holiday week ahead. War of the Worlds and Spider-Man 2's gross were quite spread out over the week as well. That's why a $100 million opening weekend looks completely absurd, and even the July 4th record looks unlikely. It'll have a huge 4-Day gross, but I don't expect the 3-Day alone to top $80 million. Magnus101 wrote: -May & June movies. The summer BO is going to be so high when SR comes. The May and June movies are going to make summer 2006 HUGE. People are going to be in the movie-going mode, and that just helps SR even more Possibly. Magnus101 wrote: -IMAX. BB, Charlie, and HP4 all did well at IMAX. IMAX helps boost overall gross higher Yep. Magnus101 wrote: Now, there are plenty of negatives for this. This includes the lack of marketing so far, the fact that this will have high expectations to be as good as the original Superman, & of course, POTC2. These factors limit it from crossing 400m(hell I'll even say 375m) but I think the positives are enough that it will gross 200m Never said it wouldn't gross $200 million. I'm sure it will. It can go up to $250 million easily, if the trailer and marketing is great. Magnus101 wrote: And is it bias or not right to say there will be non-stop marketing when all the factors indicate that it will be like that? I thought MI3 marketing would be non-stop and what do you know, THERES NON-STOP MARKETING FOR IT! When factors show that there will be non-stop marketing for a big blockbuster summer film, it isn't that hard to assume it will happend. Now you may say, "you can't assume." Well then what the hell are we just going to do, sit and wait? That's why this is a prediction thread. Its all about assuming and making predictions.
Now, you can argue your case and I can argue mine, and then come June 30th, we'll see who's right.
Here's the problem. Back in December, after the teaser was released, excel had a little schedule posted of how the marketing will roll out. In this, it said that marketing was expected to start in January and another teaser would be attached to Glory Road. Didn't happen. February, nothing happened. March, when the trailer was to debut with V for Vendetta - that didn't happen either. excel put great emphasis that, yes, the marketing will start early and it'd be huge. As each month went by, marketing failed to start. As this happened, excel's viewpoint on the marketing changed as well. From saying that the "early rollout will be huge and a $90 million opening weekend is a lock!" to saying "WB will unleash HUGE marketing in the last month and everything will work out okay." When someone negative occurs with Superman, it doesn't matter? WB is doing everything right? No. Everything was twisted to make Superman Returns look like a $300+ million hit, no matter what. Nothing has gone according to plan yet.
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Sat Apr 29, 2006 2:14 pm |
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O
Extraordinary
Joined: Sun Jul 10, 2005 1:53 pm Posts: 12197
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Magnus101 wrote: That 200m was meant to be a 300m.
And about the drop-off for Superman. Superman II still broke the OW record at the time. What hurt Superman II was that it wasn't considered to be as good as the original and Raiders of the Lost ark, one of the biggest films EVER, opened right before it. The third and fourth Superman films suffered from B&R syndrome, as they were just poorly-made productions.
And I think that the fans will boost SR to a huge Friday and Saturday on OW, and then the mainstream public will start to come on Sunday and Monday.
And I actually was predicting around 250m-275m even when that fake promo was out. My opinion about SR changed when I realized how big Superman is. I mean, I see the "S" sheild almost everyday now. SOMEONE is always wearing a shirt of some sorts. He is the most well-known hero of all. I mean, earlier I said this has SM1 potential and I lied. This has more than SM1 potential. People know the hero too well that I could even say it has 450m+ potential. But its not getting anywhere close to 400m because of WB sub-par marketing so far and of course, POTC2. Had WB released the original teaser with BB, then released a second teaser with HP4 that brought excitement, then released an SB ad, & then released a full trailer with MI3, I think the excitement for this would be through the roof. The fans are still excited but the mainstream is not....yet.
Um, I have a Superman shirt, but it doesn't mean that Superman is relevant in my life. It's just a shirt logo which HAS been marketed well. I don't think one can use the shirt as indicator of how popular Superman the movie will be. The shirt is nice, the teaser wasn't. Wearing the shirt means less to me than a good trailer would, in bringing me to the theater. And there is a huge problem with its marketing that WB needs to fix up asap.
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Sat Apr 29, 2006 3:09 pm |
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Rev
Romosexual!
Joined: Tue Oct 19, 2004 3:06 am Posts: 32633 Location: the last free city
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O wrote: Wearing the shirt means less to me than a good trailer would, in bringing me to the theater. And there is a huge problem with its marketing that WB needs to fix up asap.
5 & 1/2 days till you're hooked & millions others. 
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Sat Apr 29, 2006 3:12 pm |
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neo_wolf
Extraordinary
Joined: Sun Oct 17, 2004 10:19 pm Posts: 11033
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revolutions wrote: O wrote: Wearing the shirt means less to me than a good trailer would, in bringing me to the theater. And there is a huge problem with its marketing that WB needs to fix up asap. 5 & 1/2 days till you're hooked & millions others. 
Yup, in 5 days zing will be shitting in his pants when he see's the trailer.
OW:115
Total:390
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Sat Apr 29, 2006 3:30 pm |
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Excel
Superfreak
Joined: Sat Aug 20, 2005 12:54 am Posts: 22214 Location: Places
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390?
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Sat Apr 29, 2006 3:33 pm |
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Outatime
Veteran
Joined: Fri Nov 04, 2005 9:00 pm Posts: 3413 Location: South Florida
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Magnus101 wrote: -Most popular superhero ever. A while ago I wasn't really sure about this. I thought Spider-man after the movies could be more popular. But then I started doing a mini-poll with the people I knew. I didn't straight-up ask them which superhero they liked the best, but I just started talking to them about comic-book heroes, and its not that almost all of them said Supes was their favorite, but ALL OF THEM said he was. Hell, hes not even my favorite superhero(Batman is) and I even tried to argue with them at why Batman is better, but nothing changed their mind.
If he's so popular these days, how come he isn't making that much money? On the last Top-Earning Fictional Characters chart at Forbes, Spider-Man (#8) and Wolverine (#9) made the top 10 and the Hulk was on the near-misses list but Superman was nowhere to be seen.
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Sat Apr 29, 2006 3:52 pm |
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Rev
Romosexual!
Joined: Tue Oct 19, 2004 3:06 am Posts: 32633 Location: the last free city
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he meant $400m.  there, u can breath again.
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Sat Apr 29, 2006 3:59 pm |
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Excel
Superfreak
Joined: Sat Aug 20, 2005 12:54 am Posts: 22214 Location: Places
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Outatime wrote: Magnus101 wrote: -Most popular superhero ever. A while ago I wasn't really sure about this. I thought Spider-man after the movies could be more popular. But then I started doing a mini-poll with the people I knew. I didn't straight-up ask them which superhero they liked the best, but I just started talking to them about comic-book heroes, and its not that almost all of them said Supes was their favorite, but ALL OF THEM said he was. Hell, hes not even my favorite superhero(Batman is) and I even tried to argue with them at why Batman is better, but nothing changed their mind. If he's so popular these days, how come he isn't making that much money? On the last Top-Earning Fictional Characters chart at Forbes, Spider-Man (#8) and Wolverine (#9) made the top 10 and the Hulk was on the near-misses list but Superman was nowhere to be seen.
they have movies though...would spiderman have been on the list in 2001? i agree spidermans the most popular RIGHT NOW but that doesnt mean much as a ton of the people who liked spiderman who go see superman cause their very similar.
I think its not so much character popularity, but superman is easily the most impressive super hero on the big screen. like spiderman, all you have to do is take a one seocnd clip of superman flying, and that is a money shot. thats why magnus thinks superman will be easy to market, because what he does is so...cinematically impressive, him flying will seen all the time in the movies, but in the ads itll look incredible. Thats why it's unrealistic to think the marketing wont be effective, because this movies a very easy one to market.
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Sat Apr 29, 2006 4:38 pm |
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Rev
Romosexual!
Joined: Tue Oct 19, 2004 3:06 am Posts: 32633 Location: the last free city
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Warner Bros. Pictures announces Worldwide Satellite Trailer Debut for SUPERMAN RETURNS
http://home.businesswire.com/portal/sit ... ewsLang=en
BURBANK, Calif.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--April 28, 2006--
Tuesday, May 2, 2006 Wednesday, May 3, 2006 9:00 PM - 9:15 PM ET 9:30 AM - 9:45 AM ET (6:00 PM - 6:15 PM PT) (6:30 AM - 6:45 AM PT)
Coordinates for both feeds: IA 6, Transponder 9, C-Band - DL Freq: 3880.000 (V) - Audio: 6.2/6.8
Trouble number for feeds: 310-287-3800
Following a mysterious absence of several years, the Man of Steel comes back to Earth in the epic action-adventure SUPERMAN RETURNS, a soaring new chapter in the saga of one of the world's most beloved superheroes. While an old enemy plots to render him powerless once and for all, Superman faces the heartbreaking realization that the woman he loves, Lois Lane, has moved on with her life. Or has she? Superman's bittersweet return challenges him to bridge the distance between them while finding a place in a society that has learned to survive without him. In an attempt to protect the world he loves from cataclysmic destruction, Superman embarks on an epic journey of redemption that takes him from the depths of the ocean to the far reaches of outer space.
Directed by Bryan Singer ("X2: X-Men United," "X-Men," "The Usual Suspects"), SUPERMAN RETURNS stars newcomer Brandon Routh, Kate Bosworth ("Beyond the Sea," "Blue Crush"), James Marsden ("X2: X-Men United," "The Notebook"), Frank Langella (HBO's "Unscripted"), Academy Award-winner Eva Marie Saint ("North By Northwest"), Parker Posey ("Best in Show"), Kal Penn ("Harold & Kumar Go to White Castle"), Sam Huntington ("Detroit Rock City") and Oscar-winner Kevin Spacey ("Beyond the Sea," "American Beauty," "The Usual Suspects").
Warner Bros. Pictures presents, in association with Legendary Pictures, a Jon Peters production in association with Bad Hat Harry Productions, a Bryan Singer film, SUPERMAN RETURNS, starring Brandon Routh, Kate Bosworth, James Marsden, Frank Langella, Eva Marie Saint, Parker Posey, Kal Penn, Sam Huntington and Kevin Spacey. Directed by Bryan Singer, the film is produced by Jon Peters, Bryan Singer and Gilbert Adler. The executive producers are Chris Lee, Thomas Tull and Scott Mednick. The screenplay is by Michael Dougherty & Dan Harris, and the story is by Bryan Singer & Michael Dougherty & Dan Harris. The director of photography is Newton Thomas Sigel A.S.C.; the production designer is Guy Hendrix Dyas; the film is edited by John Ottman and Elliot Graham; the costume designer is Louise Mingenbach; and the music is by John Ottman. The film is based upon Superman characters created by Jerry Siegel & Joe Shuster and published by DC comics.
SUPERMAN RETURNS will be released worldwide on June 30, 2006.
For more information or a hard copy of the SUPERMAN RETURNS trailer, please contact: Kim Lerner-818-954-6718 (LA) / Katie Scullin-212-636-5088 (NY).
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Sat Apr 29, 2006 7:08 pm |
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Rev
Romosexual!
Joined: Tue Oct 19, 2004 3:06 am Posts: 32633 Location: the last free city
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WOOOOOOOOOHOOOOOOOOO!!! 
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Sat Apr 29, 2006 7:11 pm |
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