I still think that POTC2 will need a LOT of things going for it to reach 350 mil+, let alone the numbers you're projecting it at. The thing is, what RAWSAW was saying, is that a number that high isn't an ordinary feat at all. If it gets those, it'll be one of the biggest movies of all time. You can't just say that because Shrek 2 did it, POTC 2 will automatically do it as well. A movie does not get to 350 mil+ or 500 mil+ just from the original being beloved, Shrek 2 certainly didn't. Shrek 2 had a lot of things going for it other than Shrek 1, like fantastic marketing("Shrek! Fiona! ... DONKEY!"), fantastic reviews, a perfect release date, and so on. It hit at the exactly right time, and it nailed it out of the park with movie audiences.

You can bring up the fact that if Shrek made 300 mil, the sequel wouldn't have been affected, but it works the other way too. If The Matrix made 300 mil, the sequel probably wouldn't have done any better than it did. The hardcore fans would've rushed out to 100 mil opening weekend, and the bad WOM would've still kicked in and lead it to 280 mil total like it did. Same thing with Meet The Parents. Do you think that if the original got to 300 mil, the sequel would be any higher than what it got? God no. 270-300 mil is the most a film like that could possibly grasp, it just doesn't have enough appeal for more. The thing is with POTC, is that it wasn't just a sleeper hit that made a nice gross like The Matrix, it was a 300 mil uber smash! Only 21 films in history have done that, and it's one of them. Because it got so high, there isn't nearly as much room to grow as there was for the 150 mil+ grossers like Matrix and Meet The Parents. It's naive to think that the increase for POTC can do the same as them, with an original 300 mil+ gross instead of what they have. The movie isn't any more beloved than say The Matrix, the main difference between the two is that Pirates was able to cash in on the original love in theatres thanks to a wider release, while the Matrix had a great gross but waited until later to have the cult following. POTC is on such a higher plateau than them already, it's not working off the same situation whatsoever.

And one more point on the back end: Sure, let's say POTC is as beloved as the Shrek. But the thing is, Shrek 2 for all it's worth only made 108 million opening weekend. It got it's extra push to 441 due to it's amazing WOM and legs. If POTC, with it's filming without screenplay, and cliffhanger similar to the BTTF and Reloaded, has iffy WOM? It could very well open to that 100 mil plateau with a 2.8 multiplier, and miss the 300 mil mark.

Pirates has good marketing. It ranked very well on the Super Bowl Ad-meter. Reviews never have an effect for wide releases and certainly not for popcorn movies. Pirates release date is considered one of the best, with a great track record, although I think you could release POTC 2 in September and it would earn 400m.



The simple reason that those movies earned less is that they appealed to fewer demographics. Matrix had 17-35 males. Pure comedies will never appeal to people with all sorts of different tastes. I'd argue that POTC's 305m is an underpreformance compared to it's potential audience, just as the BO numbers for the Matrix and MTP were.



Shrek 2 was the type not to be as frontloaded. Therefore POTC will open with 140 if it has the same level of demand. It's just impossible for this movie to fall short of 400m. The multiplier won't be below 3 since it has too many families and women. The weekdays will be too strong.

It's too early to tell. Opening-wise, yes, it will definitely pull a Shrek 2 (or I'm eating my hat), but the total depends entirely on quality.

Now that's a statement...

Every movie, i repeat, EVERY movie can count itself damn lucky if it reaches that milestone. You make it sound as if it's a piece of cake. No, it's not, not even for the "big boys".

No doubt it'll open to massive numbers (however not to $140m, which is ridiculously high), what happens next will depend on its quality. It could go either way, lower or higher than the original. The minimum i see it doing is $250m (if it disappoints audiences), the absolute maximum $400m (in the event of everything going right). I settle for $350m.

When I have enough data to back something up, I don't hold back.

Again, I have to iterate the following:

PotC2 did NOT film without a screenplay! Terry Rossio himself stated so here:

http://www.wordplayer.com/forums/movies ... read=82961

I don't know *where* this misconception started, but it's definitely not true.

Oh, and I'd say the cliffhanger is closest Empire Strikes Back, actually (betrayal by a friend and the endangerment of a popular character [though this time, things aren't so hopeful]).

Joy

Phantom Menace, Spiderman, and Jurassic Park are all 400M+. A very different ballpark from PotC and thus not worthy of comparison. Pirates is actually much closer to Shrek than it is to any of those. You've proven that a 400M movie can't have a sequel gross higher but a low 300M is a different story.

It's Pirates 3 that filmed without a script

And it is BTTF2's ending.

MAJOR FRICKIN' SPOILERS, MAN!












Really....













Still here? Okay. Elizabeth betrays Jack to save them, so Jack goes down with the Black Pearl and drowns, ending up in purgatory. Pirates 3 involves Will and Elizabeth going to purgatory to save Jack. That sounds an awful lot like "Doc goes to the Old West / Marty must save him" to me.





























End Spoilers

Pirates 2 does have a bit of extra originality in it's ending though, because...

[spoil]When Jack goes down to purgatory, he meets Barbosa. I presume them looking at each other ends the film.[/spoil]

Not quite...

[spoil]Barbossa actually shows up resurrected at the very end of DMC and in PotC3 volunteers to venture to Purgatory to find Jack (Jack has something that Barbossa wants).[/spoil]

But you're right. It does have a tad more originality...

Yeah, I'll give you that it reminds of BTTF, but I'm still reminded of ESB/ROTJ, too...

[spoil] In ESB, Lando ("pirate" captain's friend) betrays Han ("pirate" captain), which leads to Han almost dying. In ROTJ, the movie begins with Han's friends (the farmer-turned-Jedi and the girl of royal blood) staging a rescue to save Han.

In DMC, Elizabeth (pirate captain's friend) betrays Jack (pirate captain), which leads to Jack ACTUALLY dying. In PotC3, the movie begins with Jack's friends (the blacksmith-turned-pirate and the girl of aristocratic blood) staging a rescue to save Jack.[/spoil]

IMHO, I think the Two T's have outdone themselves. I mean, they're actually going through with what ESB and BTTF both skirted but didn't quite go all the way with.

Joy

Well, if you are going to say that POTC would have been the only 50mil opener with a 6mult then you would also have to give the benefit of the doubt the ID4 and TPM.

Also, just to amend something, there have been 20 300mil movies, not 21. Return of the Jedi made 252mil in its original run, not 309mil.

There really is nothing to say to the people who predict 400 or 500mil for POTC, as the only thing that will convince them that it won't make that much is when it doesn't make that much. I remember all these crazy 400-500mil predictions for Ep2, Ep3, TTT, ROTK, and other movies that i am forgetting. The only thing that proved those predictions unrealistic was their box office.

People seem to think that any movie can get to 400mil with hype, when that is not the case. Only 4 movies have made over 400mil in their original box office runs (SW needed a few rereleases to get over 400mil as did ET). Titanic got 601mil, Shrek 2 got 441mil, Ep1 got 431mil, and SM got 404mil. Out of those 4 movies, no one saw those final grosses coming. Any movie that people think can get to 400mil always seems to fall short. Matrix Reloaded, Ep2, Ep3, TTT, ROTK, they all fell short. Ep1 is the one that was the most realistic guess for 400mil. It had 16yrs of hype going for it and that got it over 400mil. Shrek 2 was a big surprise, as no one thought that it would get an over 440mil total. The fact that it didn't/doesn't deserve to have made that much money is irrelevant, sadly. Titanic was an absolute WOM shock, it just wouldn't stop. SM was another surprise.

The way that people predict 400mil+ movies, you'd think there would be more than 4 of them.

The last one adjusts to close to $333 m, so I think $350 m is definite, as someone like me (who's entire family did not see POTC in theaters), has his entire family wanting to see this in theaters this time around. I didn't watch POTC 1 until it came out on DVD. But I definitely will see this one in theaters. I'm going to go w/ a $420 m total at this point.

Over.

I know $400 m seems like a huge number, but here's how the past 5 years have changed the all time charts:

Rank Title(click to view) Studio Lifetime Gross Year
3 Shrek 2 DW $441,226,247 2004
6 Spider-Man Sony $403,706,375 2002
7 Star Wars: Episode III - Revenge of the Sith Fox $380,270,577 2005
8 The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King NL $377,027,325 2003
9 Spider-Man 2 Sony $373,585,825 2004
10 The Passion of the Christ NM $370,782,930 2004^
12 The Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers NL $341,786,758 2002^
13 Finding Nemo BV $339,714,978 2003
16 Harry Potter and the Sorcerer's Stone WB $317,575,550 2001
17 The Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of the Ring NL $314,776,170 2001^
18 Star Wars: Episode II - Attack of the Clones Fox $310,676,740 2002^
21 Pirates of the Caribbean: The Curse of the Black Pearl BV $305,413,918 2003
23 The Chronicles of Narnia: The Lion, the Witch and the Wardrobe BV $291,615,165 2005
25 Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire WB $290,013,036 2005

14 of the top 25 are from the past 5 years, 8 of the top 13 films are from the past FOUR years (staggering!!!). SWEP5 was #10 just 5 years ago, now its #24. The #10 spot on the alltime chart has gone up from $290 m 5 years ago to $371 m now (28% higher). During that same time ticket prices went up 13%. 12 of the 21 films that have ever passed $300 m have done so in the past 5 years.

Here's an interesting stat! What is $400 m now (3% increase from Mojo's 2005 ticket price to $6.592, was $285 m in 1998 (8 years ago!!!).

We may have only had 11 films ever do $350 m +, but adjusted for inflation, we've had that done 11 times in the past 5 years adjusted for inflation. We have 7 films that have done $380 m or more, but adjusted for inflation we've done it 7 times in the past 4 years. Inflation is making $400 m get approached more and more.

How much do you think it would make if Waner didn't decide to put Superman the week before?

Uh.. SR is like a 175-225m movie. No way this is a lock for 250m.

If Batman Begins could only just pass $200 million, then I don't see how Superman Returns is a lock to make $50 million more than that.

You're apparently not the only one. AICN just posted a couple character concept art pics from PotC2, and one person said that he never saw the first movie, but the trailer and character concepts have made him want to see DMC in theaters!

Joy

I don't think POTC2 will make $400 million, anyway, unless it pulls off some insane legs. It should still make at least $350m, since it's all but guaranteed a $100m+ opening, but, as you said, the quality will determine the legs.

And Superman is being way overpredicted. It's going to disappoint a lot of you, just like Batman did last year.

over everything but Titanic.

HA!!.......

I think your last sentence says it all....There was a time that people said that about 100mil dollar movies. Then 200mil, 300mil, and now everyone and there brother thinks that every year 1 or 2 films will break the 400mil barier. In time with inflation it will become the norm but we're not there yet.

2005: 1 film to break 300mil
http://www.boxofficemojo.com/yearly/cha ... 005&p=.htm

2004: 3 films to break 300mil
http://www.boxofficemojo.com/yearly/cha ... 004&p=.htm

2003: 3 films to break 300mil
http://www.boxofficemojo.com/yearly/cha ... 003&p=.htm

2002: 3 films to break 300mil
http://www.boxofficemojo.com/yearly/cha ... 002&p=.htm

2001: 2 films
http://www.boxofficemojo.com/yearly/cha ... 001&p=.htm

2000: 0 films
http://www.boxofficemojo.com/yearly/cha ... 000&p=.htm

1999: 1 film
http://www.boxofficemojo.com/yearly/cha ... 999&p=.htm

As of late you'd have to say we'll have 3 films this year to crack 300mil but last year says something to me... With the swelling popularity of DVD and the competition nothing is a sure bet anymore. I wouldnt be surprised to see a "Spiderman vs AOTC" again this year but on a smaller scale.

I agree, somewhat. I am sure that at one point 100mil was like 300mil, and now 400mil is in a way the new 300mil. The thing is that 100mil is still a thing, and it's not like 100mil is the norm for movies and 200mil is now required to be called a hit. A movie (obviously barring sequels to popular movies, and built in fanbases) that makes 100mil is still a hit. 40YOV's 100mil was a big thing, Wedding Crashers' 200+mil was a huge thing but doesn't lessen the 100mil goal that most movies aspire to.

300mil isn't that easily banked, even with higher ticket prices and whatnot. POTC was a huge WOM hit and had great legs, yet it "only" managed 305mil. Matrix Reloaded had some colossal hype and it only managed 281mil. The 400mil movies are monsters from another world. 601mil, 441mil, 431mil, 404mil are amazing numbers and it wasn't just one thing that got any movie to them. Titanic had WOM, oscars, winter, and i think there was something in the water that caused teen girls to see it dozens of times. Shrek 2 had summer, being a sequel to a very well received movie, great reviews, and the same water that Titanic used only directed at the smaller, child-like humans. Ep1, well, that was the crazed SW fans. There was no tainted water needed for that, as there are millions of psycho's (fans, whatever) who saw the movie a thousand times each. Out of all the 400mil movies, Spider-Man seems to be the first one that was a realy result of just the day and age. Spider-Man is a popular superhero to all ages, the whole ticket price thing, theater count, and all that business.

I don't think that POTC2 will get close to 400mil, nor do i think that Superman Returns will get there. Out of all the movies this summer i wouldn't be surprised to see the Davinci Code break 400mil. I am not expecting that or predicting that by any means (i think a 200-250mil gross sounds about right) but i am just saying that i would not be at all surprised if it broke out and pushed past 400mil.

Sidenote, Alias starts tonight!!! woooooooooooooo

Even putting aside the 400mil stuff, and if i agree that 370mil is reserved for the biggest movie of the year, i still don't think that POTC2 will be the biggest movie of the year. X3, Davinci Code, POTC2, and no doubt some movies coming out later in the year all have a shot. I don't think that X3 will be the biggest of the year, but i think that it has the potential. Same with davinci code, and i would even throw in Cars (or some other animated movie). POTC2 is in no way a lock for the biggest of the year, or even 300mil. I expect POTC2 to open rather large (though not as large as a lot of you are predicting) and then has fairly good legs and finish in the 250-280mil range.