I don't think any film will. Pirates of the Caribbean or Happy Feet could pull it off, but I think the former will be topped by Lady in the Water and the latter might have Casino Royale top the first weekend, while Happy Feet tops the following two.

Pirates of the Caribbean could probably do it if it's big enough or if Lady in the Water does less than suspected.

Scary Movie 4 actually might have a shot at it. Next week it goes against Silent Hill, American Dreamz, and The Sentinel. The following week it goes up against RV, Stick It and United 93. If United 93 had more marketing, it'd probably be number one, but right now it'll be lucky to make $15 million.

Mission Impossible III has a shot at it.

Pirates II won't.

If Casino Royale is well liked, it go on a 3-week run, maybe even a little longer.

Other than those.........

But Scary Movie will probably be lucky to do more than $10-11M in its third week.

And how could MI3 do it with The Da Vinci Code?

So it probably won't beat RV. United 93, maybe.

SM4 will be lucky to be above $8m in its third weekend. There's no chance it tops for three straight weekends, let alone two weekends. Silent Hill and/or The Sentinel will top it.

Silent Hill, maybe. The R will hurt it a bit though.

The Sentinel has had next to zero advertising on TV so far. It'll probably finish third next week.

I say no but if any move can do it it's Happy Feet.

Pirates 2 really has the only chance at it. It'll easily have two weekends in a row (nothing in it's second weekend will even come close), and, depending on both its own WOM and Lady in the Water's buzz, could do three. If it makes $120 million first weekend, and $60 million second weekend, then it needs to have a 40% drop or so third weekend to top Lady in the Water. But it could definitely do it.

Happy Feet won't do it. It's not even guaranteed to win its own weekend, let alone three in a row. No chance.

Pirates has a good chance, it has weak competition for several weeks and it will have already hammered Superman Returns into submission.

HA! U'll be eating those words come nov. HF will take OW & thansgiving wknd.
Bond's no match for dancing penguins.

If Casino Royale had Brosnan in it, there'd be no debate over this. As it is, I suspect that the two films will be quite close, a la Minority Report and Lilo & Stitch.

with or without Brosnan the penguins would have no problem taking the top spots both weekend.

Happy Feet makes me want to hate penguins.

I love penguins! They're so cute! Why would they want to make me hate penguins?!?!

WHHHYYYY?!

naa you like it.

I think Happy Feet will do it. Casino Royale will have an R rating, a much more serious approach, and a Bond nobody is familiar with yet and of who a lot of people aren't liking so far. I could see that doing around 40 mil, at most. Happy Feet will top 50 mil, if succesful 60 mil or more. Then the next two weeks are easy holds obviously.

Casino Royale will almost certainly be PG-13.

Wait, a much more serious Bond with an R rating? If only they could've gotten Clive Owen, then. He doesnt fit the normal Bond bill, but a darker Bond he could be perfect for.

I don't know. Torture scene = R.

It won't be rated R.

There's no way Happy Feet's topping $60 million. It's gonna do $30-40 million opening weekend, a figure that Casino Royale will at least be able to match.

Oh, then never mind.

I want a Bond without sexual innuendoes and 1-liners.

When do you think I could expect that?

Actually, Miami Vice could do it based purely on the fact there are, like, no releases in the first three weeks of August. The only fight is going to come with its third week when Snakes on a Plane comes out, if there's any hype even left for snakes by August. Miami Vice has the biggest shot, so far. Followed by Pirates. Also, Idlewild comes out in late August and doesn't look lik emuch competition in the first few weeks of September either, so that oculd come out of the blue and take three weekends, depending. All the King's Men has zero competition for weeks.

Don't take Charlotte's Web run too lightly, either.

4-5 for Pirates.

3-4 for Happy Feet.