You could say that about any big movie with great legs that has a sequel on the way. And yet, it rarely happens that the sequels are a lot bigger than the original.

PotC's $305M wasn't made by people who did not go see it.

I would hardly qualify Attack of the Clones in the same league as Dead Man's Chest (or, in fat, any of the other films you listed). The Phantom Menace was not the kick-off of a new franchise. The Matrix, Back to the Future, Rocky, Batman, Jurassic Park....they were. Those franchise starters didn't have 30 years of hype coming off of the biggest movies the world had ever seen.

At that, only one of those movies is in the age of frontloadedness DVDs and piracy (Matrix Reloaded).It is a new age of boxoffice than what was seen at the time of even The Lost World's release just 9 years ago. WOM movies back then were much more common than they are now. For a movie to have comparable WOM and legs in 2003 to that of a movie in the late 80s is nothing short of astounding. The late 80s didn't have such widespread home video sales to fuel interest post-domestic box office.

Plus, all of those films were (I think...not sure about Batman and Rocky) on the whole not as well recieved as the original. The public went from adoration to, for some, flat out hate. I'm not saying Pirates 2 will be as good or better than the first, but I personally think that it would ahve to disappoint along the lines of Reloaded to not pass the original. And while it could happen, what are the serious chances of it happening?

youd be surprised.

reloadeds not a bad movie at all...but when compared to the original?

pirates 2 will enormous expectations in terms of wether audiences exceptor not. it will probably just as good if not better then superman but will have worse wom due to the expectations, that like reloaded, were unreasonably high.and theres a much better chance it wont meet them then the chances that it will. when their met, like say the two towers did, itll go past the originasl. id so its a 60/40 that it wont/will meet what are sure to be unrealistically high expectations.

its already happening,look at this thread.lots of people have this breaking the opening weekend record which is very unrealistic seeing as another juggernaut movie will be in its second weekend....itd be damn hard to break 115 with another movie still racking up 40 million +. and if a lot of people expect it break the record and it doesnt, thats a dissapopointment.

theres 2 kinds of predictions-low end and high end,and right now everybody seems to be predicting pirates on the high end and superman at the low end, and if pirates doesnt meet them which it probably wont that is again disappointing. and as a film, c'mon now there will tons of comparison to the original and that will be very very hard to beat.

this is the kinda film that could easily get a backlash....disney needs to be very careful.

originality will hurt its legs as well.pirates 1 had fantastic legs cause thered never been abig pirates movie before.now that everybodys seden that movie and seen it so many times, after they see the sequel there will be a been there done that feeling for a lot.

the only problems is,that was a harry potter film so it had the huge fanbase already.the film fromthr previous weekend had bad word of mouth and appealed to different people.

superman and pirates appeal to very similar crowds...superman could steal kids away from pirates, which be a big blow.

This is what I don't understand about your logic.

Superman Returns comes out one week before Pirates of the Caribbean. Films like Superman are naturally frontloaded, and with it being released around Independence Day week, a lot of the film's gross will be made before Pirates even releases.

After Pirates is out, Superman Returns will not continue to take kids away. It will lose the kids audience.

how do you know? lots of kids didnt liek pirates due to those skeletons and this one is "supposably" darker then the first while supermans always been a kids fav. and is alight and bright huge superhero flick. itll keep alot of the kids. pirates will rake in its cash with the teens.

my logic superman has always been extremely popular with kids, young boys in particular. dont be surprised if they want to see superman again over pirates.

Absurd.

It didn't sell 11 million copies on DVD on opening week because kids didn't like it.

not all kids but logic tells you kids and their parents will pick a popular, idealistic, light and bright superhero movie over a dark,somewhat violent movie ANY day of the week.

Shrek 2 was lacking the fanbase of ptter and was in its third weekend, and the only thign they shared was kids, and as obvious from the difference in dollars between pos and sorcerors stone, not nearly as many kids went to see it.

that is another thing against it.

superman will likely break the screen count record and open in around 4200 hunderedand then will probably exp[and to 4250 in its second weekend. that would put pirates at like, what, 3600? not bad,but supes would be mauling it.

I love how you're stating these things as facts, when they're clearly not.

First of all, that "dark, somewhat violent" movie you're referring to made $305 million from a $45-ish million opening weekend. Just thought I'd point that out. Also, who's to say Superman isn't violent? Both are PG-13.

Second, just two months ago, Disney gave Chicken Little 3,654 theaters opening weekend. It's highly unlikely that they'll give one of their biggest movies of the summer less than that. It'll be more towards 3,800, but both have a chance over 4,000.

im not saying their facts, but bryan isnger has publicly stated wbs told him this is their biggest franchise begniner since harry potter and that had the biggest screen count...superman opens when no big film has in 4 weeks....click could open to 40 but thats doubtful.

Click will open to $40 million, but that's beside the point.

I don't doubt Superman can get 4,000 screens. Both it and Pirates could pull it off. But don't expect a record to be broken. There's a better chance that a film before it will break the record.

what singer meant, i believe, is that this franchise has the most potential...matrix started in 1999.

theyll have a fine time marketing the film. noway cars opens to 70, 55 tops. its talking cars. nobody between 10-20 will be caught dead in that theater i can assure you.i see click with a 35 sized opening but itll be tremendously overshadows by superman....superman is all the press will be talking about for a full month after x3. click will benefit from superman sell outs and have a second weekend in the low 20's. either way it wont matter... how do you think shrek 2 hyped itself among when opening after hypemachines van helsing and troy and a week before another big machine in the day after tomorrow?? w.b. will find a way, theres a reason were not being bombardedwith marketing now like we were with batman-cause their going to save it and use it around the films released.

Wow.

It says a lot about your arguement when you think Superman Returns has massive kid appeal and Cars, a pixar film, can't attract kids and teens like the other Pixar films did.

Pixar has a gigantic adult audience. Probably larger than most adult targeted movies.

Cars will be sold out it's 10pm showings the first evenings.

talking cars are a lot dif. then fish...talkng cars...remember herbie???

ya its pixar and will get 50 but nemo numbers?hell, monsters inc numbers tops. teens will be seeing nacho libre. i didnt say i wouldnt attract kids i said it will ONLY attract kids. teens wont go and see this.

i dont at all....superman will always be a kids fav. and the prime kid flick all july. hell itll probably be the prime date movie for a while to as its supposbly superman meets the notebook meets the day after tomorrow

Hell, while we are at it, let's just give it the Oscar!

(that was sarcasm!)

mwha, mamoth this film shall be unstopable it shall be

First, you say that Pirates of the Caribbean will attract more teens than kids and Cars will only attract kids, and you said that Superman would attract a lot of kids. Now, it has become the prime "date movie"? Make up your mind.

Bleh. No point in arguing with biased Superman fanatics.

you dont think kids like superman???

theres a reason why superman toys are still popular. have you ever seen a halloween where a kid wasnt superman? they all know superman is....and besides it has died down but with a new movie interest will be way way upand hes proven in history he hads an easy time gaining fans and resurfacing into the limelight.

oh...well maybe now, but i would think once allthise like 5-10 year old boys see the film, supermans the new hero.hes so idealistic to little kids hence his big popularity with them.

i doubt it, mainly cause kids always change what they want. without a spidey movie in the summer time, superman could easily become their hero until may 07 again. theres room for more then one and i mean c'mon,i dont know many kids whode pick spidey over a man with super stregth that can fly.

Yeah, but he looks stupid. Spider-Man looks cool.