Dont expect me to honestly make a prediction like that, its more of the highest I think the film can go, 68m is my opening wknd prediction, I would say the max I can honesly predict without thinking my prediction is rediculous is probably 74m-76m but those are boundaries that I will not predict at this point.

Hmmm...I think Narnia will end up underestimated, really. I can easily see a $25+ million opening day as of now.

I think that the middle eastern villianous imagery in Syriana will draw a lot of interest, and in much more than just LA and NY. I'm not all that shocked about how well it did limited, as I've really felt that this looked like one of the most relevant and interesting films in years. The gasoline/oil theme reaches everybody across the board. It's sure to be a complicated movie, so I don't see it having great legs due to the attention spans of most moviegoers, but it should capitalize a bit on a stronger than expected opening.

The mainstream audience will go see a movie about oil and gasoline because "it reaches everyone?" As in, we all have to go through paying high gas prices, so we should drive over to the nearest movie theater (and, in turn, waste more gas) and watch a movie about it?

I have a hard time seeing people rushing out for this one, though it should make atleast $60 million total.

Zingy, you're discounting the very active adult moviegoing audience again. We DO go to movies . This is something many adults would find interesting.

It's also got some star power in George Clooney and Matt Damon and is getting strong reviews. It's got nothing working against it's opening, really. The biggest competition in it's market is with a film that's been out for over 3 weeks already in Walk the Line. There are a few limited releases coming out, but nothing else wide that isn't 3 weeks removed from it's opening. Maybe Pride and Predjudice is a bit of competition, but I'd see that as more female than adult demo. Nothing in the adult market is in it's way.

Thats crazy, almost a 50% drop, nothings coming that would cause it to drop that hard, whats with the prediction

I can't see Narnia opening over 65 million, maybe not even 60 million.
Good legs, though.

The Chronicles of Narnia - $57.5 million
Syriana - $19 million

Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire - $11.3 million (-45%)

What do you mean? Which films are you talking about?

Syriana (liberal, political, contemporary) vs. Narnia (religious root). At first I didn't believe Narnia will have the same religous appeal comparing to Passion, but with reports that churches are buying tickets in large groups for the opening weekend, I become a believer.

Narnia is a fantasy story with religous undertones

Syriana looks outstanding, though I realy dont like politics It still looks like a film to check out, Ill just ignore all the political undertones that the film is sure to be loaded with.

Early predictions:

1. The Chronicles of Narnia: The Lion, the Witch and the Wardrobe - $50.3m
2. Syriana - $18.1m
3. Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire - $10.4m
4. Walk the Line - $7.2m
5. Aeon Flux - $5.9m
6. Yours, Mine and Ours - $5.5m
7. Just Friends - $4.0m
8. Pride and Prejudice - $3.6m
9. Chicken Little - $2.8m
10. Rent - $2.7m

I see 56 million for Narnia and barely 20 for Syriana. However, Narnia could go anywhere between 50-70. Not sure.

We should also not forget that December tends to be more about legs than big openings... a lot of people are shopping on the weekend or saving their money for holiday shopping or working extra hard to make the money for holiday shopping. The original Lord of the Rings may have seemed like a disappointment when it only made $45 million opening weekend (with about as much hype) but then look how it turned out. I expect Narnia to do better, but I'm thinking it doesn't even do $60 mil opening weekend.

1. The Chronicles of Narnia: The Lion, the Witch and the Wardrobe - $53.5M
2. Syriana - $14.0M
3. Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire - $11M
4. Walk the Line - $6.8M
5. Aeon Flux - $5.0M
6. Yours, Mine and Ours - $4.5m
7. Just Friends - $4.0m
8. Pride and Prejudice - $3.0m
9. Chicken Little - $2.5m
10. Rent - $2.3m

Hopefully NARNIA puts out Massive numbers to kick off december.

i CAN see NARNIA and KONG both grossing $250M+

Teh Fellowship would have opend between 60m-70m if it had not opened on a Wednesday, I think that Narnia can open along those lines as well.

That's like saying Spider-Man 2 would have made $150 million opening weekend if it had opened on Friday. It doesn't work like that, BJ. It's no proven fact that it would have opened to $60-70 million, or The Two Towers with $90-100 million, or Return of the King with $110-120 million.

Fact of the matter is, the month isn't about openings, no matter which way you cut it.

Only four films have opened to $40+ million in December (three being LOTR), and only ten films opened to $30 million. To compare...:

Number of $30+ million Openers
January: 1
February: 6
March: 8
April: 2
May: 28
June: 25
July: 29
August: 9
September: 3
October: 5
November: 29
December: 10

December openers usually have the best legs, even for a genre that usually doesn't have good legs. There's just no rush factor for most films with Christmas shopping and all. And, when you think about it, 2005 in general has been more about legs than openings, except a few.

Blah blah blah you totaly over reacted to my post. All I was trying to say is it would have opened with more over the three day if it had opened on a friday. Why would it not have?

But honestly, after The Passion of the Christ I just can't put any expectations of how big an opener will be into the month when it comes to huge movies. Sure, the non-tentpole films tend to have a ceiling of about 30 million with a few exceptions, but if the hype is there, the massive ones can still be huge.

...and under-estimating of Syriana.

Right now I'm feeling like it will be more like this:

Narnia: 48-50 Million
Syriana: 28-30 Million

That's, like... impossible.

With the 1,750 theater count, almost assuredly.

But what if i got 2,000 theaters? I could see close to a $15,000 PTA, given that it just had a $55,000 this weekend.

Yes. What Libs said.

I don't see that much mainstream appeal for such a PTA. And, considering the audience, it doesn't seem like a film adults will rush to. $20 million is achievable, I suppose, but $30 million? I think that's wayyyyy out there.