So this is the Best Picture thread. Go nuts. Heres what I just wrote:

The main contenders as of now in my mind:

1. Jarhead
2. Walk the Line
3. Munich
4. Memoirs of a Geisha
5. The New World

But I'd be surprised if that how it turns out. Those all have a chance, but theres a very good chance one will disappoint and let a surprise in. I think the top 3 are 85%-90% in, the rest are sitting at 65%-75%. Jarhead is the #1 favorite I think right now. Sam Mendes is batting .1000 right now with 1 of his 3 movies, American Beauty, standing out as one of if not the greatest movie ever made. His 2nd movie Road to Perdition was also an excellent 100 mil+ oscar nominations hit. Add that to Jake Gylanhalls rising star and Foxx giving a supporting hand, and the need for this type of movie right now as in it'll be a hit, and you've got it. Walk the Line is right on its heels though. Joaquin Phoenix and Reese Witherspoon are breaking out this fall. Phoenix is a lock for Best Actor nom, Reese is almost there for her Best Actress nom, I actually see her taking the Oscar. If the direction is on par with the performances well then you have Best Actor Best Actress and Best Director on your boat, a blowout waiting with the Best Picture win. Munich at #3 is all banking on Speilberg. In 1993 he had his blockbuster, than went for controversy Jewish display and swept come Oscars. If he can make another movie on Schindler's List level look out. Eric Bana was very good in Troy and he has a good chance at Best Actor nomination. #4 Memoirs of a Geisha, the asian choice, looks very very appealing. Zhang Zhiyi's first english role, looks very stylish. Lots of costume and make-up awards for sure. #5 The New World is the swinger of the bunch. It could be a huge hit BO wise even. Or it could be the next Alexander. If it is up to par though it could dominate. Farrell is looking to bounce back, yes Alexander was bad, but he has his shot now. Must we forget Hilary Swank having her Core debacle and coming back with Million Dollar Baby? Farrell can do it. The girl playing the Pochahontas character also seems to do a good job. I think its a wild-card. If it is good it could come out of nowhere to take the others out.

Though The New World is sitting at #5, it has a more likely chance of taking the actual Best Picture oscar than Geisha, who would have a really really rough time actually winning considering its foreign circumstances. But Geisha is ranked higher as its nomination is almost secured, while New World could go two ways. Oscar favorite, or the route of Alexander.

Alternate movies in continuing order:

6. The Weather Man-I'm really banking on this one. Its my 2nd most anticipated of the year behind Potter, I see something in it. Looks really insightful. Could have the American Beauty vibe. The acting is fantastic in the trailer too. I'm thinking its Cage's best performance in years, hes been running off doing National Treasure and Matchstick Men, its time for him to buckle down into something really good. Micheal Caine could be a supporting nom possibility too.

7. All the Kings Men-I don't know much about this project, I know its an remake from the 60s but I have never seen the movie. The cast is superb though. Sean Penn, Kate Winslet, Jude Law, all nominated before. Winslet is due, I don't see her winning it here, but the movie could have Best Picture potential.

8. King Kong- The academy needs one uber-blockbuster to be nominated. Yes New World could do 150 mil, but this could be 315 mil+ if good. Everyone on board is on par, Jack Black Adrian Brody and Naomi Watts. The CGI will get lots of nominations, Kong looks badass. And lastly the one factor that puts it above SW, BB, HP: Peter Jackson. Hes coming off LotR and the academy loves him. This will be his real test.

9. Cinderella Man- This isn't very likely to win anything at all, but the directer and Russell Crowe could get a nom, and it could get a 5th movie nomination a la Seabiscuit but never be in contention. It was released too early, didn't do well enough bo wise, and wasn't amazingly superb enough. But still. Can't count it out.

10. Syriana-George Clooney movie. Hes not all that bad of an actor, I would expect him to do something really great sometime in his career. Matt Damon also in this movie. I don't know much about it, but it seems good.

11. History of Violence- Viggo aka Aragon takes on this. I also don't know much about it but it seems decent.

12. Match Point-Woody Allen, doubtful because hes lost his mojo lately, but the reviews so far are good. Serious movie supposibly. Could mayyybee get in but again doubtful.

13. Crash- Really surprising if this makes it, but its gotten good reaction along with the director and acting. Released too early like Cinderella, still really outside shot

Thats all for now. I know theres some I missed but you all will get to them.

The New World will not do 150m, I personally think it will be pushed back more and end up being a spring release.

I do agree on Jarhead, MOAG, and Munich, Walk the Line, I think that thought a film that know one really knows about until like October will be a nomaniee to.

I also don't personally think New World will get that high, but it has an outside shot at 150 mil+. More than the other 4 at least. Could be an undercut Gladiator.

I think that contraversity will make Jarhead and Munich a success.

My predictions as of now (in order of likelyhood):
1. Brokeback Mountain
2. Match Point
3.Walk the Line
4. Jarhead
5. Munich

6. Crash
7.Memoirs of a Geisha
8. The Constant Gardner
9. Cinderella Man
10. Good Nigh. And, Good Luck.