Um, yeah, so you're saying that all the kids that saw POTC will now be turned off because of Alexander, Kingdom of Heaven, and King Arthur, movies that none of them saw?

It's seriously stupid reasoning.

The Bourne Supremacy was also a huge hit on DVD after a great box office run, and made more.

POTC had a lucky strike in 2003 and it will not be repeated and you will see that in just about a year.

POTC was a success of circumstance just like The Ring. It did well because of the poor competition. June 2003 was a horrible failure with the likes of Hulk, Charlie's Angels 2 and July started off with a total stinker called T3. POTC had the BO for itself since there were no more blockbusters till the November/December season.

Bad Boys 2, Spy Kids 3, American Wedding, S.W.A.T. and Freddy vs. Jason were much bigger competition than Jackass, Santa Clause 2 and 8 Mile. Don't compare. And if Pirates of the Caribbean got so much money because of bad competition then how come it only stayed number 1 for one weekend and was out of the top 5 in 7 weekends?

June, July, and August of '03...

2 Fast 2 Furious - $127,120,058
Hulk - $132,160,047
Charlie's Angels: Fully Throttle - $100,814,328
Terminator 3: Rise of the Machines - $150,358,296
Legally Blonde 2: Red, White & Blonde - $90,639,088
Bad Boys II - $138,540,870
Spy Kids 3-D: Game Over - $111,760,631
Seabiscuit - $120,197,488
American Wedding - $104,354,205
Freaky Friday - $110,222,438
S.W.A.T. - $116,877,597
Freddy vs. Jason - $82,490,748

Yup, jb, you're right. 0% competition... :razz:

2001
RH2 -226
JP3 - 181
POTA - 180
AP2 -145
TFAF -144
Lara Croft 131
Dr2 -112

2002
Signs -221
Austin3 - 213
Scooby -153
Lilo-146
XXX - 142
MR - 132
Bourne I -121
Mr. Deeds -126
RTP -104

2004
HP3 - 249
SM2 - 373
Bourne S - 176
I Robot - 144
F911 - 119
Dodgeball - 114
Village - 114

Compare to these years and 2003 does suck.

Yeeeeeeeeah. The summer with 4 $200+ million grossing movies (two of 'em making over $300 million...) sucks.

All but POTC happened in May and that is exactly my point.

Actually, if you adjust for inflation. Q3 of 2003 was far bigger than 2004, which is were the majority of your movies come from:

http://boxofficemojo.com/quarterly/?cha ... 005&p=.htm

So, what you're saying is that POTC was a fluke? Because, if that's the case, explain the freakin' amazing legs for a summer movie.

I'm guessing Passion of the Christ, Spider-Man, Return of the King, Revenge of the Sith, and all others were flukes, too, right?

C'mon. First you say it won't do as well because of movies like Alexander (which is just completely stupid reasoning...), and now, you're saying that Pirates of the Caribbean got lucky for being an excellent film that got all audiences to come watch it with it's excellent WOM?

Wow.

I am using Alexander and other S&S movies as examples as one of my reasons. The reason being S&S movies are grossing a lot less than they used to. Further I am giving POTC2 more in OW than Alexander made in its entire run. You are trying to fudge the issue by mentioning Alexander.

Anyway

Passion had controversy and Evangelicals.
SM is a beloved comic book hero for over 40 years.
ROTK, a popular book and trilogy
ROTS, the biggest movie franchise in history

Yes, POTC was a fluke with the stars aligned just right for its success. It has a hero that never before or after has had a blockbuster and as for Orlando Bloom - Kingdom of Heaven, Enough said.

Or, maybe, it was just a great movie and you're judging the sequel's potential box office based on your opinion of the original?

If I based it on the opinion of the original I would have said $30M total not $194M.

Though I graded The Incredibles a F, I still predicted $255M for it.

Anyway, let us see how far down it will end up from 400, 475, 500 predictions. BTW what is your prediction for it?

Eh, around $350 million. Just $50 million more than the original. I'm not sold on the $400+ million predictions, either.

$200 million is a lock, imo.

Oh, and wouldn't you have predicted $255 million before you saw The Incredibles? :razz:

$350M though high is not outrageous like those others. The original milked every single dime out of the audiences. I don't see the sequel coming even close to the original's gross. Only Star Wars and LOTR have improved on prior $300M series movies and those are the two biggest movie franchises. Shrek 2's success was expected (though not to that extent) after Shrek became the third best selling vhs/dvd of all time. I don't see POTC getting that kind of success.

No that was my prediction after watching the Incredibles. I knew it would not appeal to kids and would not have good legs as compared to other CGI movies.

I don't think the rest of POTC's audience felt cheated out of their $8.50, but fair enough. :razz:

And, when you said your prediction was $255 million, I thought it was before the movie released. I predicted 70/260 before it came out.

That was right on the money.

Prior to release prediction was 85/273

I predicted around $280 million for The Incredibles, so =;

The thing is that there is simply no other "mega-blockbuster" next summer, à la Star Wars or Spidey 2. X3, Superman, Cars and M:I-3 all have their limits, POTC 2 is the only one with a fair chance to be REALLY REALLY big.

Pirates of the Caribbean was a beloved ride from Disneyland :razz: .

So was The Haunted Mansion. :razz:

But then again Batman Begins was beloved as well and it's dissapointing.
And so did Jonah: Veggie Tale movies.
And Haunted Mansion just wasn't as popular as Pirates of the Caribbean. :razz:

How did you manage to grade The Incredibles an F?!

What rating scale are you going on!

The one where F stands for "fool"

Any poor reproduction/ripoff of a James Bond theme starts and ends with F.

The fact that the movie was humorless and extremely boring cemented the F.

Um, once again, where are you getting that info that Shrek is the 3rd biggest selling DVD/Video of all time?

The link is in the previous page.