Came up with a more coherent way to compare how Elemental is holding up

date Elemental Kingdom 3 % of Kingdom 3 HDYL % of HDYL
August 4 38919 46491 83.71% 30707 126.74%
August 5 41884 79224 52.87% 49117 85.27%
August 6 53653 84430 63.55% 51253 104.68%
August 7 31289 36650 85.37% 25349 123.43%
August 8 29327 32514 90.20% 23562 124.47%
August 9 43841 44242 99.09% 34381 127.52%
August 10 32910 38287 85.96% 27889 118.00%
August 11 52555 75644 69.48% 53677 97.91%
August 12 45731 69098 66.18% 50389 90.76%
August 13 44866 63965 70.14% 45960 97.62%
August 14 48911 67477 72.49% 47384 103.22%
August 15 39036 47229 82.65% 35283 110.64%
August 16 56742 62944 90.15% 49687 114.20%

Pretty sure How Do You Live will pass 7 billion yen this weekend.

But will it get to 10 billion?

It's going to need something extra to get it there, I believe. Whether that be another Miyazaki retirement announcement (although I have doubts this will be as effective as in the past), or an appealing giveaway, or something else... something is likely to be needed to get it to ¥10 billion. On its own, I predict it'll finish between ¥9-9.5 billion. Yes, close, but that extra ¥500m-1b won't be easy to get without some incentive.

About to post Thursday's estimates. A little lower than I was expecting, but still an above-average day and concludes Obon Festival 2023.

Sales for Sand Land just look hideous. Absolutely hideous. Curious how low it will be this weekend.

edit:

Hmm... the opening on mimorin isn't horrible. Actually comfortably in the lead. We will see.

It's pretty bad still. It should have been able to win Friday very easily, as it's up against holdovers that are 3-6 weeks old now, but it's currently barely above them.

I suspect it will still win Friday, openers advantage, but I don't like its chances for the whole weekend unless it starts to pull well ahead later today. And if it does win the weekend, it'll be a pretty rough opening it would seem.

JustLurking talked about how they've put a lot into this old one-shot as if they're launching a new franchise from it across various mediums, but I don't know... doesn't look good. Most things become a franchise or multi-media success organically. Most that try to get forced to become a franchise or a bigger franchise usually fail. Interest has to be there, and that interest has to grow from person to person. Can't just pump a bunch of stuff out and expect loads of people to jump on board from the start.

I actually think Sand Land will fall behind at this point, this Friday. Its afternoon and evening sales might not pick up the slack.

I think they should start promoting it. Perhaps an official trailer would help? I doubt it would at this stage, but ...
They only now released some official images of scenes of the film.

https://twitter.com/oricon_anime_/statu ... 2570805377

You were right. It's really too close to say what film came out on top on Friday, my prediction is Kingdom III again, but for Sand Land to be in third on mimorin and in a 5-way race for #1 against holdovers that range from 3 weeks to 6 weeks old is embarrassing for it.

Not winning Friday, or maybe coming out just barely on top thanks to its premium showings, probably means it's not winning the weekend in its debut. Holdovers tend to see bigger gains over Sat/Sun.

Maybe? Although doing this now on the backend of summer will probably have a minimal effect.

I don't want ¥10 billion to be seen as a mark of disappointment here. If it misses it, yeah, I'd say this film disappointed. But if it gets there, it'll be a success. Not a huge one, not as high as some expectations were, but it's still a success. (Although I don't know how much of a profit that gives it, if any, since it's believed to be the most expensive film ever, which will be a budget over ¥5 billion.)

But ¥10 billion is still that gold standard in the market. It's a little easier to reach now as avg. ticket prices gradually increases (largely thanks to the popularity of premium showings), but it's still the big milestone to shoot for when possible.

FranSpeech is reporting 'How Do You Live' is still in 4th place on the 18th of August.

1. Kingdom3
2. Elemental
3. MI7
4. How Do You Live
5. Sand Land
6. CrayonShinchan
7. Barbie
8. Transformers
9. Super Mario

Sand Land didn't make a huge Friday gross

FranSpeech is estimating, as no official daily estimates are released in Japan unless a studio releases figures. Keep that in mind with the many Twitter users to post Japan numbers. They're usually close, of course, but they're not official.

I'd estimate Sand Land to be higher though. It's avg. ticket price should be a little on the high end (or at least upper-mid) given the premium showings. And I assume most of its audience consisted of Toriyama fans, which would be adults. Nothing really high, but high enough that being so close in admissions to the others should give it at least third place in revenue I'd think. I'd estimate second place myself. Having Elemental in second is unlikely since it has the second lowest avg. ticket price of the big films in release right now, so being close in admissions probably puts it in 3rd-5th.

The top 5 are super close overall though. Only 4k admissions separated them on mimorin, so nationally, they could be <10k admissions of each other.

Oof. Sand Land actually declined on Saturday... Finished a more clear 5th place for the day.

The holdovers should perform better on Sunday vs Saturday than Sand Land will, so Sand Land might be looking at a very disappointing 5th place debut this weekend. Sub-¥200 million opening weekend very likely, which is going to make reaching ¥1 billion tough.

I don't know how it's doing outside the box office, but this feels like an end to a franchise before it really even began to me. I appreciate trying to start a new franchise, but at the same time this feels like a waste of a lot of money on this project too.

As for the holdovers, Kingdom III is going to reign atop the box office for a fourth straight weekend. How Do You Live? had the best hold vs last week and may rise up to second place in its sixth weekend. Good sign for it, though the numbers have dropped too far for good holds to matter too much, I feel. MI7 likely coming in third. Elemental probably fourth, but if it has a bigger Sun. bump, it could take third. Sand Land in fifth as mentioned. And then Crayon Shin-chan in sixth (but a big Sun. bump could allow it to challenge Sand Land for fifth...).

The volume did ok for what it is...a new release of a kanzenban/decades old oneshot. And if people can't be bothered to show for the film I assume the console game will tank completely.

I'm a little disappointed in Elemental's performance this weekend. But I guess because schools are out in Japan, it does better in the weekdays.

Not sure about the video game. But the way the video game market works in Japan, if it doesn't have a big debut, it won't sell a lot. People rush out to buy games in Japan, or at least they did when I paid attention to the market 10 years ago.

Also, schools are out in Japan for all of August, right?

By the way, Corpse, it was leaked today that DS will return to theaters with the fortress arc. Probably a trilogy.

@eigarankingnews
``How Do You Live '' estimated box office today... 108 million yen for 20th August.
Cumulative total... 6.943 billion yen ( ※ estimated value)

'Keeping the number at a high level of 82% compared to last week, is there a possibility that the ranking will rise?
After all, it seems that the increase in the number of mobilizations can be greatly expected due to the lifting of the information ban!'

Perhaps 'How Do You Live' could reach second or first place this weekend?
People are commenting that if Ghibli had advertised 'How Do You Live' from the start it might've reached 10 billion yen already.

Correct. So weekdays for younger-skewing films will be strong for a while longer. Not as strong as during Obon of course, but still above average.

Good news. If not a trilogy, then at least a Part 1/Part 2 release.

Will be fun to see what it/they can do.

That's always going to be the question: If the decision to not release any information about it and not market it benefitted or hurt it?

The opening weekend was strong, but that 50% second weekend decline was awful. The norm (for past Miyazaki films and other comparable films) is to drop 10-20% over the second weekend. Pretty much every comparable film dropped in that range. So,, why did it drop 50%? Was it because only the biggest Ghibli/Miyazaki films came out on opening weekend, and the lack of marketing contributed to casuals being unaware of it to cause it to drop that much? Is it mixed/poor WOM? Subsequent holds haven't been notable, usually in the 30/35% range which is very average.

The hold THIS weekend is good. It's probably in second place. It's just that its daily/weekly numbers have dropped enough at this stage where good holds can only get it so far now. ¥10 billion isn't impossible, but it's going to require something more than achieving good holds now.

Looks like Elemental will win the last Monday of summer vacation in Japan. In admissions, if not Yen as well.

What's the chance that Elemental is #1 at the box office this weekend, seeing as it's holding up well on weekdays.